electoral vote predictions 2012

[dowellndoubtnot]

i think Obama is slightly ahead in Ohio, but i think Romney is going to surprise in Wisconsin...so might end up being decided by the smaller states (NH, Col, Iowa).

[Miss Philicia]

just got back in from pumping some iron.

Was that 2 lbs. of weight or 3?

[wolfter]

i think Obama is slightly ahead in Ohio, but i think Romney is going to surprise in Wisconsin...so might end up being decided by the smaller states (NH, Col, Iowa).

Romney is leading Ohio by a couple of percentage points.  Which isn't a great surprise for me as I seem to know more people supporting him than Obama.  Or perhaps, those who are voting for Obama are keeping their mouths shut. 

[dowellndoubtnot]

^Hm, all the polling averages i have seen show Obama slightly ahead.

[mitch777]

^Hm, all the polling averages i have seen show Obama slightly ahead. 

i hope you are right!
obama needs to win Ohio.
if not, this could be very scarey.

[bocker3]

All I know is there is ONLY ONE WEEK LEFT of these never ending political ads.........  I can't wait to go back to commercials about tampons and erectile dysfunction.................

M

[mitch777]

All I know is there is ONLY ONE WEEK LEFT of these never ending political ads.........  I can't wait to go back to commercials about tampons and erectile dysfunction.................

what's the difference?

[mecch]

If Ohio voters believe all the pack of lies, which even the car companies have taken pains to point out, and go ahead and elect Romney, then I hope every single one of those voting idiots gets their chosen future.
I feel sorry for the people who would suffer under a Romney Presidency, never having voted for him, and always having known he was elected based on smoke and mirror and the worst pandering in decades.  All at a time when anyone can suss out some basic facts so easily.

[tednlou2]

Meet The Press showed this graphic.  The president has more firewalls.  He could lose Ohio, Florida, Iowa, and Colorado, and still win.




If everything goes to hell, we'll have the following.  Yes, those are weights, but much smaller than the ones I work out with.

[Ann]

Meet The Press showed this graphic.  The president has more firewalls.  He could lose Ohio, Florida, Iowa, and Colorado, and still win.

At first glace I thought the graphic of Florida was a handgun - thought they must have been polling the NRA.

[Miss Philicia]

Today's Quinnipica poll for Ohio shows Obama still maintaining a 5 pt. lead, unchanged from last week. Sorry Mittens, you will be losing come next Tuesday evening if you can't win Ohio. Even if you win Florida, you will still lose.

Now, what snacks should I plan for Election Night? That's the most important issue.

[wolfter]

I've been following the polls provided as a link from our largest newspaper and It's showing Romney winning slightly.  I guess I'm gonna just stop watching the polls as I have found so many different ones with conflicting data.

I think it's a conspiracy by the mainstream media to make it appear that it's a close race in order to receive more advertising money.

[Miss Philicia]

Good times -- poor NYC-hatin' barebackin' Sully manages to make the argument I've been harping on for years.

[mitch777]

breaking news!

Romney just flip-flopped once again and NOW supports FEMA.
WHO IS THIS GUY???
What a phoney piece of s**t.

(sorry, just woke up from my nap and am a bit cranky) 

[mecch]

Vile, that Romney.

As for Sullivan - he hates NYC? I thought he just moved back to NYC.... ?

[Miss Philicia]

As for Sullivan - he hates NYC? I thought he just moved back to NYC.... ?

He did just move there, and he's been bitching about it continually. IIRC he's never previously lived there, only visited or short work bits. Never actually had to rent an apartment, etc. He's not handling it very well and has been embarrassingly public about it on his blog, to the point that everyone else is making fun of him. But then again, Sully's really easy to mock.

[mecch]

I know we are supposed to mock him, but I never followed him so dont know his story.  I get the impression he's like an Ann Coulter, a pundit nobody respects except for their impressive ability to make a career out of it.

[WillyWump]

you will be losing come next Tuesday evening if you can't win Ohio. Even if you win Florida, you will still lose.

This is LMAO. Either candidate can win without Ohio (especially this year), albeit more difficult. This is true especially since Mittens is purportedly closing gaps all over the board.

I believe the bases will pretty much cancel each other out, and the election will come down to the independent vote, which shows Mittens up by 10+points. Although all of this is predicated on the accuracy of polling, remember this is not 1980 anymore and there are fewer and fewer landlines (how many of you still have a landline?) thus polls are sampling the few people who have landlines and trying to pull that data up to a wider group. True, there is some polling donve via cell phones but it is very expensive and therefore somewhat limited.

I'm not sure how much credence to put in any polls, whether it shows Mittens or Barry leading. So who knows how it will pan out.

It will be an interesting night on Tuesday 

-W

[buginme2]

Real clear politics Average national poll.

Obama 47.4%
Romney 47.4%

Disclosure: That is the national poll which really doesnt mean anything in an electoral college but its still interesting that it is exactly TIED!!!

Side note:  Andrew Sullivan is creepy.

[Miss Philicia]

This is LMAO. Either candidate can win without Ohio (especially this year), albeit more difficult. This is true especially since Mittens is purportedly closing gaps all over the board.

You've obviously been masturbating while watching Dick Morris on Fox News. If Mittens doesn't win Ohio, he'd have to win every other remaining swing state. That's simply not true for Obama.

Let's put it this way -- with the current polling averages in the swing states would you rather be in Mittens shoes or Obama's? That answer shouldn't be difficult, even for a braincell-challenged fake-taco-eating tumbleweed like you.

[Miss Philicia]

btw, right-leaning The Economist formally endorses President Obama today.

[mitch777]

OK, with just over 24 hours left to participate in this poll, we currently have 20, I repeat 20 votes cast out of the over 17,000 members of these forums.

What a turnout!

There is still time for the rest of you.

[drewm]

Early voting in Wisconsin and Ohio has been heavy and heavily female so I weighted both for Obama.

[mitch777]

hey drew,

i think your map looks pretty realistic.

i added another option to the poll a minute ago to lure anyone who has yet to vote.

[Miss Philicia]

uh... New Mexico red? No. Obama is leading by 9 pt.s there. He's up 4 in Iowa. Those are more likely definite wins than either Ohio or Virginia.

[mitch777]

 

uh... New Mexico red? No. Obama is leading by 9 pt.s there. He's up 4 in Iowa. Those are more likely definite wins than either Ohio or Virginia. 

I DID say "pretty" didn't I?

I agree with you in any case pee.

[mitch777]

Just saw Gloria Steinem on MNSBC. She still looks great! One smart cookie too.

[Jeff G]

If you want to really know whats going on in ALL the polls just google Nate Silver , he's the man . 

[buginme2]

You've obviously been masturbating while watching Dick Morris on Fox News.

Oh the horror

[randym431]

I don't get the national polls. Every single non official poll, like the one here and the polls on many many other forums, people consistently are overwhelming for Obama. Its like 2 to 1 average in Obama's favor. Many 3 to 1. So why are the national polls so tight? Doesn't make sense. If the actual vote follows the same trend, Obama will win by a huge landslide. Assuming Karl Rove hasn't figured out how to rig the process.

[Jeff G]

I don't get the national polls. Every single non official poll, like the one here and the polls on many many other forums, people consistently are overwhelming for Obama. Its like 2 to 1 average in Obama's favor. Many 3 to 1. So why are the national polls so tight? Doesn't make sense. If the actual vote follows the same trend, Obama will win by a huge landslide. Assuming Karl Rove hasn't figured out how to rig the process.

Check out this blog http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/author/nate-silver/

If you read this guys blog you get a bigger picture of sampling from all the major polls . Polls such as Gallup used to be the gold standard as far as polling goes , but much has changed in recent years such as people using cell phones instaed of land lines , so Gallup is still a good poll but only if used as snapshot of a certain demographic . There are other partisan polls out there too that distract from the clear picture . This guy uses a method that factors in many diffrent polls .  Hope this helps .

[mitch777]

I don't get the national polls. Every single non official poll, like the one here and the polls on many many other forums, people consistently are overwhelming for Obama. Its like 2 to 1 average in Obama's favor. Many 3 to 1. So why are the national polls so tight? Doesn't make sense. If the actual vote follows the same trend, Obama will win by a huge landslide. Assuming Karl Rove hasn't figured out how to rig the process.   

also, the poll here on this site is FAR from scientific. i should know, as i posted it.
i just thought it might reflect the views of people here on the outcome of the election and had hopes that people would vote on this poll for who would win and by what margin and NOT who they hoped would win.

with a mere 23 votes thus far, this poll is as helpful as an umbrella in a tornado.

[Miss Philicia]

So why are the national polls so tight? Doesn't make sense.

Because Mittens is running up huge margins in all of the southern states. I provided a link somewhere, not sure if it's in this thread or another, with the regional breakdown of a typical Gallup poll. Outside of the South Obama leads in national polling, but by only a margin of something in single digits. In the South Romney leads by something like 20 pts. so that high margin cancels out the three other regions if you look just at the aggregate numbers. Hence the possibility of Romney winning the popular vote but losing the EC.

And, of course, Romney's 80% support in the South is all white people. I feel sorry for them actually, having to make the choice of voting for a member of a polygamist religious cult to defeat The Black Man.

[Miss Philicia]

Five tracking polls released today and Romney isn't ahead in a single one. 15 swing state polls released today and Romney isn't ahead in a single one.

[buginme2]

On the news this evening they showed pictures of people trying to vote in Florida.

In Miami people are waiting 3-4-5 hours.

Republican Governor Scott has declined to expand voting there.  What the hell?

[wolfter]

I guess Ohio had a lot of undecided voters because suddenly, the polls showing Obama having a huge lead.

I've questioned many of my friends and family how they intend to vote on Issue 2 and not a single one of them had a clue what it really deals with.    Gotta love these well informed voters.

If it passes, Ohio's constitution can be amended without referendums but rather by a group of political delegates. 

[Jeff G]

From time to time you read discusions about wether it might be better to get rid of the electoral collage and go with the popular vote instead . I haven't given it much thought but I can see where there would be a benefit of counting the votes of the ones who actually took the time and got off their butt and voted .

What do you guys think ?

[buginme2]

Not sure if this has been posted yet but it is the best election video of the season.


http://front.moveon.org/five-guys-took-a-boy-band-anthem-and-created-one-of-the-best-romney-parodies-hands-down/#.UJSKgT3FQQE.mailto

[WillyWump]

And, of course, Romney's 80% support in the South is all white people. I feel sorry for them actually, having to make the choice of voting for a member of a polygamist religious cult to defeat The Black Man.

Five tracking polls released today and Romney isn't ahead in a single one. 15 swing state polls released today and Romney isn't ahead in a single one.

I guess Ohio had a lot of undecided voters because suddenly, the polls showing Obama having a huge lead.

I may be jacked up on Modello Especial, but I call BS on most of this ^^^ What polls? Links please?

[Miss Philicia]

I may be jacked up on Modello Especial, but I call BS on most of this ^^^ What polls? Links please?

NATIONAL (Ipsos/Reuters Tracking): Obama 46, Romney 46 (LV); Obama 47, Romney 44 (RV)

NATIONAL (PPP Tracking): Obama 49, Romney 48

NATIONAL (Purple Strategies): Obama 47, Romney 46

NATIONAL (Rasmussen Tracking): Obama 48, Romney 48

NATIONAL (UPI/CVoter): Obama 48, Romney 48

NATIONAL (Zogby for the Washington Times): Obama 49, Romney 49

COLORADO (Ipsos-Reuters Tracking): Obama 46, Romney 46

COLORADO (PPP for LCV): Obama 50, Romney 46

COLORADO (SurveyUSA): Obama 47, Romney 45

FLORIDA (Ipsos-Reuters Tracking): Obama 48, Romney 46

IOWA (Gravis Marketing--R): Obama 49, Romney 45

IOWA (Mellman Group for Americans United for Change): Obama 46, Romney 44

NEVADA (Mellman Group for Americans United for Change): Obama 50, Romney 44

NEW HAMPSHIRE (Gravis Marketing--R): Obama 50, Romney 49

NEW HAMPSHIRE (New England College): Obama 50, Romney 44

OHIO (CNN/ORC): Obama 50, Romney 47 (LV); Obama 52, Romney 45 (RV)

OHIO (Ipsos-Reuters Tracking): Obama 47, Romney 45

OHIO (Rasmussen): Obama 49, Romney 49

OHIO (We Ask America--R): Obama 50, Romney 46

VIRGINIA (Ipsos-Reuters Tracking): Obama 48, Romney 45

VIRGINIA (We Ask America--R): Obama 49, Romney 48

ps: fuck off

[WillyWump]

[mitch777]

wow! you know romney is getting desperate in ohio when there is no longer any commercial tv air time to buy, so he spends his money advertising on electronic message panels on gasoline pumps.

[wolfter]

The Columbus Dispatch has endorsed a Democrat for State Senator.  This is huge from a Republican newspaper.

http://www.dispatch.com/content/stories/editorials/2012/10/31/for-u-s--senate.html

I think the Republican telephone campaign might be failing miserably, sending mixed messages.  My family tends to vote Republican but even my mother is concerned by some of the recent automated calls she has rec'd.

One call indicated that the women of Ohio should not be primarily concerned with social/personal issues, but rather on the the state of the economy.  Within the same day, she rec'd another recording pleading with her to vote for Romney and Mandel because they believe in the sanctity of marriage and the DOMA.  They believe marriage is between one man and one woman.

So, do they want her to vote based on social issues or not?

Wolfie

[buginme2]

This could just be my nervous nature.

But as the election is getting closer I am getting more nervous. 

As someone with a pre-existing condition, the repeal of Obamacare is just frightening.

[Miss Philicia]

I love how Wumpy called me a liar, requested the posting of 21 polling results, I complied, and he offers no comment. He may say he's voting for Obama, but deep in his heart he has some sort of cognitive dissonance that the Southern conservative power structure isn't the rightful majority ruler of the US.

[mitch777]

I love how Wumpy called me a liar, requested the posting of 21 polling results, I complied, and he offers no comment. He may say he's voting for Obama, but deep in his heart he has some sort of cognitive dissonance that the Southern conservative power structure isn't the rightful majority ruler of the US.

while this is a distinct possibility, i think she simply likes to see you slave away for no good reason but her amusement.
 

[Jeff G]

while this is a distinct possibility, i think she simply likes to see you slave away for no good reason but her amusement.
 

Its a known fact Republicans love to watch Democrats work till they drop  .

[WillyWump]

I love how Wumpy called me a liar, requested the posting of 21 polling results, I complied, and he offers no comment. He may say he's voting for Obama, but deep in his heart he has some sort of cognitive dissonance that the Southern conservative power structure isn't the rightful majority ruler of the US.

Its a known fact Republicans love to watch Democrats work till they drop  .

Look, i get that y'all are shaking in your boots over this election, but there is no need to lash out at me. Just remember Obama can still pull it out  . Now I'm off to Vegas to spend some discretionary income before I have no discretionary income to spend

Yours truly and forevers

-Will 

PS- I will check in with yall on Tuesday night to see how things are going

[Dachshund]

Give Sheldon Adelson our love.

[Jeff G]

Look, i get that y'all are shaking in your boots over this election, but there is no need to lash out at me. Just remember Obama can still pull it out  . Now I'm off to Vegas to spend some discretionary income before I have no discretionary income to spend

Yours truly and forevers

-Will 

PS- I will check in with yall on Tuesday night to see how things are going

I can see why you may need some ME time , come Tuesday it will be the second election you called wrong in the space of a week ... see you in chicago  .