Ky Gov Race

[RobbyR]

Ky governor's election was today. I voted. Hugely important race. Don't want to lose hope just yet, but looks like the right ring extremist candidate (Bevin) is going to win (endorsed by none other than Kim Davis, btw). He says on Day 1 he will repeal out Kynect healthcare system. Can he actually do this? As we all know our current outgoing governor Beshear was instrumental in implementing this in Ky when the ACA was passed. Ky, being the backward state that it is, always goes Republican.

So how would a Republican governor affect Kynect the state healthcare system. The ACA is federally-mandated I know that. But will I lose my insurance? I have Wellcare right now. And how about the KDAP and Ryan White grants?

I'm kind of freaking out. I'm getting the hell out of this state as soon as I can.

[tednlou2]

Democrat gubernatorial candidate, Jack Conway underperformed in the more liberal cites of Louisville and Lexington.  He needed to get about 60-65% in those cities, to head off all the repub counties.  He could not do that.  So, why?  Is it that progressives just don't vote in the same numbers in off year elections?  And, this was an off-off year election.  Is it that people who would normally vote for Dems can't get to the polls in 12 hours?  I don't know.

I do know Jack just looked bad in the debates, but I doubt many watched those.  In one, he was sweating so bad.  Nixon's sweating was nothing compared to that.  Bevin may have lied a lot in debates, but he sounded believable.  He is just a much better debater.  Jack was also against medical marijuana, saying it just puts more pot on the streets for kids to get.  Bevin said he was for it and said he wouldn't let a sick child suffer, because of some fear it would put more pot on the streets.  He asked the college audience whether they could get their hands on some weed that night.  Of course, most could.  That may have hurt Jack with progressives.  I know it did not sit well with me. 

But, KY and other states are becoming more and more repub.  Pre2010 midterms, Dems controlled both legislative houses in 27 states.  Tonight, Dems control both in just 11 states.  In 2010, there were 26 Dem governors.  Tonight, just 18 dem governors.  Are Dems just not running good candidates, or is it the Obama factor?  But, Obama won by decent margins in both races.  So, that leads me back to progressives vote in presidential elections, but allow repubs to have their way during all others.

[RobbyR]

Great summary of it ted. I hadn't followed this election, I only heard and read how extreme Bevin is on issues like gay rights. I was SO sure that Conway, while far from being a perfect candidate, would win by at least a few points. Boy was I wrong. I'm a bit shellshocked. I didn't know Bevin was for medical marijuana. That may well have dampened turnout for Conway. Who knows. But I also think Obama is SO unpopular here that Bevin successfully linked Conway to him, and it was going to be hard for any democrat to win in this state right now, while Obama is still in office. Not saying I agree with that by any means, that's just how ignorant a lot of people here are. I live in Lexington, & most people I know who voted weren't that into Conway, it was more an anti-Bevin vote. But the result is very disheartening 


Conway always seemed a bit like John Edwards (remember him?) Kind of slimey, fake. He didn't campaign as broadly as Bevin did. He may have taken some votesin Lexington & Louisville for granted. Big mistake.

The trend is clear. The democrats seem to do well for the white house and a few senate seats in liberal states, but all in all the republicans are sweeping state-level races and the whole south is now red.

Interestingly, things used to be the opposite. The GOP controlled the white house from 1968-92. The dems had locks on most state houses and Congress. But now it's just the opposite.

Good thing for the dems though are that the macro numbers favor them by far, young people, lgbt, singles, women, immigrants, minorities, the populations of the future will all vote democratic, but as we see with Conway sadly many must have stayed home.

It's hard to believe that Bill Clinton carried Kentucky both in 1992 & 96! Hillary won't have a prayer of carrying the state. Not that it even matters. Because if she's the nominee she'll probably win anyway.

My question though is how will Bevin's win affect those of us on kdap/ryan white & kynect? kynect is our state's separate exchange which has allowed me to have my own insurance as part of the ACA. My understanding is Bevin wants to get rid of kynect totally. So then what will happen, will I just revert to the federal ACA? I'll have to talk to my case worker about this. I think the state house here is still controlled by democrats but not sure, Also I'm concerned about kdap/ryan white, though Bevin may not be able to touch those, since I had kdap/ryan white long before I was ever on the kynect/aca. And the hiv grants are separate from the insurance side of things. I just remember I was paying 280 dollars a month for anthem private insurance before the ACA was passed, and before kynect, and then I could no longer afford it and they booted me off. Then luckily I signed up for kynect & got wellcare.

Any thoughts, ted?

[tednlou2]

I agree that there is just something about Jack, that seems just... not authentic.  The only time he impressed me was when he (as Attorney General) refused to appeal the Federal Court decision, which said KY must allow gays to marry.  He cried during that press conference.  For those who don't know, that is what caused our governor to appeal the decision. 

The polls showed Conway with a 5 point lead, in the last week.  Were the polls flawed?  Did people change their minds?  Or, did people who said they were voting for him not show up to vote?  I suspect the latter.  If that's the case, why didn't they?  Did they have intentions to vote, but couldn't make it to the polls?  This is why I think we should have early voting.  I think it is ridiculous we have just 12 hours to make such big decisions, especially for president.  We had a 30% turnout.  However, that is probably considered very good, especially for an off-off year election.

So, this will be the second repub governor in the last 40 years?  We know how the last one ended with scandals and voted out after one term.  Bevin may have violated campaign rules, when he sent emails to every teacher on their state email, saying he would take care of their retirement.  My partner, a teacher, got one on Monday. He may have some issues with doing that, even before taking office. 

[RobbyR]

I think it was a perfect storm against Conway. He was a flawed candidate, he took votes for granted, & didn't campaign all over the state which he should have done. Duh. Too late now though. Bevin is a total nut looney toon, but given the ignorance of this state, I'm not too surprised that he won. It never ceases to amaze me how the vast majority of this state which is rural, totally impoverished, and reliant on government subsidies, benefits, and healthcare, can then turn around and vote for someone like Matt Bevin, who's probably 100 times more radical than Reagan or Bush ever were. Conway had to get huge margins in Louisville & Lexington, to make up for most of the rest of the state, which Bevin carried, but Conway couldn't even win Louisville or Lexington as handily as he should have.

There are several reasons for this. The crusty old people, the rich, & the poor people who are just too stupid to know better got out and voted for Bevin. Conway needed to get the lgbt people, minorities, women, & single young people. But apparently lots of them stayed home. Votes matter people! Sadly I think many low-income people who are registered Democrats and blacks may not have been able to find a ride to the polls, or knew where their polling place was. And being an off-year, lots just don't bother. Except the angry old white Republicans of course.

Bevin is a known crook. I predict he'll run into trouble before long. Luckily Alison Grimes won her race, & Andy Beshear won the AG election. But something good did come out of this disastrous election, because it shows how important every election is.

And I've been doing some hard thinking, and while I support Bernie Sanders, if Hillary is the nominee, I am going to get out and vote for her no matter what even if she isn't my favorite person to make sure that a Republican doesn't win the white house next year.

[randym431]

It's all about voter turnout. It has always been.
Democrats are cursed with typical low voter turnout.
And.... this very much involved opinions and Kim Davis.

Just that image of any Christian jailed for their religious beliefs brought out every righty winged religious identified republican to the polls.
The power of a Christian jailed for his or her beliefs coming true was the end for the democrat in this race.
Bevin ran to Davis's side in support. The democrat candidate did not.
That made all the difference for Bevin. And locked in his victory.
I'm kind of shocked democrats did not see this coming.
Sure, in the polls Conway was probably the desired guy of the office, but what polls did not take into account was the unified outrage from right wing religious republicans.

The real horror to fear with this, is if republicans take this message nation wide come November 2016, every right wing religious republican, out from under every rock, will run to the polls to vote republican.
And the turnout would be huge!
And the republicans could easily win it all, despite what the polls tell us.
Hillary could easily poll ahead of the republican opponent by tens or points, yet still lose in a landslide to the republican.

A warning for democrats.
DO NOT underestimate the power of what happened to Kim Davis.
For republicans that identify as evangelical, their worse fears came true in Kentucky.
Christians jailed for their religious belief.
Like I said, if you don't think that will bring out every single evangelical republican in 2016, we are in for a real nightmare of a loss come election night 2016.
No matter the candidate, the win will be massive nation wide.
Few in the media will see this coming, and the polls will not reflect this happening.

[LukasAtlPZ]

The most reliable voter in off-year elections are the retirees/elderly. They tend to vote for a more conservative candidate. Working people tend not to vote as much during off-year elections.

[RobbyR]

Some other southern states are even worse than Ky. I think Bevin is a nutcase, but once he comes into office, he'll quickly learn that governing is far different from campaigning with tea party talking points.

Bevin basically won on the coal issue. Kentuckians have been hurt by the EPA regulations on coal, it's a deep-rooted, cultural heritage and economic issue here, anyone who is against coal is finished. Conway ran a very non-authentic campaign, all he did was just diss Bevin and not say what he was FOR. Granted, Bevin is a known homophobe too, so that's scary, and it's also scary that he wants to get rid of our highly successful Kynect Affordable Care Act network, basically forcing all of these people onto the federal healthcare system, which is a lot more tedious and complicated. I don't get why people would vote for him, but at the end of the day, it's about who showed up, mostly old white people, and it was all about linking the Democrats to trying to destroy coal.

So that's what it was really about in Ky. I don't know how Bevin plans on dealing with the Supreme Court ruling on same sex marriage, but he'll have to follow the law though I suspect he'll try and find ways around it but at the end of the day you can't go against the law.

[RobbyR]

Regarding the national election in 2016, I think it could go either way at this point. On the Republican side, Trump has people pretty excited. I don't personally care for Trump, nor would I vote for him, but I mean he is a lot better than those other nuts running on that side. Ben Carson doesn't even believe in evolution! The man thinks the earth is only 6,000 years old. I mean, come on.

I support Bernie Sanders but I think either him or Hillary would do a decent job as president I don't agree with Hillary on everything which I've made clear before, but at the end of the day, I've realized that what matters is not so much which nominee we have, but that we get a Democrat elected. I could live with Trump if I had to, but the rest of the Republicans running just sound like fools.

Hillary isn't that popular with Independents, so I'm not sure how she'll fare, and not sure if she can get the turnouts that Obama did. It could very well be an election where the Republicans seem to be behind but then come and win by a landslide. So we have to educate people and get out the vote!