Heterosexual infectivity rate of HIV underestimated

[leit]

"The heterosexual infectivity of HIV (the virus that causes AIDS) is often cited as a fixed value of one transmission per 1,000 sexual contacts.
[...]
They [Kimberly Powers, of the University of North Carolina, and colleagues] found wide variations, with estimates ranging from zero transmissions after more than 100 penile-vaginal contacts in some serodiscordant couples (one partner HIV-positive and one partner HIV-negative), to one transmission for every 3.1 episodes of heterosexual anal intercourse, which is more than 300 times the commonly-cited fixed heterosexual infectivity rate."

The Lancet Infectious Diseases, news release, Aug. 5, 2008

[RapidRod]

leit, if you want to play the numbers game, take it to the race track. The only thing you'll do there is loose money.

[Jake72]

Actually, Leit's data are relevant since there are uninformed heterosexual couples who seem to assume that just because they're heterosexual, they should worry less about HIV and don't give much thought to other STDs. Considering that anal sex is also prevalent in the heterosexual world, people should perhaps be more informed. Just a few months ago, I was speaking with a straight pal who mentioned that he and his date were going to engage in anal sex. I casually reminded him to use condoms. He seemed surprised since he figured that condoms were only for vaginal penetration and not for oral or anal sex. Maybe you'll consider this guy 'stupid' or 'ignorant', but I suspect there are quite a lot of sexually active people who fall in the same category.

[RapidRod]

Jake72, people have been advised that the only way to know ones status is by testing. The message is out and has been for years. Those that are irresponsible will not heed the warning don't matter if it's on TV or the sides of busses everyday.  Numbers are for satistical use not for anyone that have put themselves at risk.

[Jake72]

Certainly the only way to know one's status reasonably well is to be tested regularly and to be aware of the window period. But if someone hasn't been aware of or has ignored the real risk (and has filed the existing messages away as  overblown scare tactics driven by morality watchdogs and/or media sensationalism), then perhaps a stronger message backed by factual statistics may hit harder. Maybe it won't.

Obviously some people will continue to take risks, not just with HIV but also with other STDs. But clearly current and previous messages haven't been doing the trick given the rise of HIV and other STD infections in both the gay and straight communities.   

[Matty the Damned]

Jake,

It won't hit harder. I hate to break that news to you, but it just won't. That may not be apparent to you and the rest of the worthies who dwell only in the dim recesses of the AIDSmeds Research Forum, but out in the real world it's pretty bloody obvious.

Roddles, like myself, has extensive experience in this stuff. The sort of people who don't compute the basic "wear condom == no HIV" message just aren't gonna be able to swallow the delicate nuances of "factual statistics" in the same way that vast intellects such as yourself do.

Best not to worry yourself about it, eh?

Fondly,

MtD

[Jake72]

Eh, point well taken. Guess I was being a bit too optimistic.  

[Matty the Damned]

That's the way son.



MtD