HIV: Average Age at Death 45.3 Years

[northernguy]

So the local paper had a section talking about the risk in our every day lives.  IE Risk of being a victim of violent crime, being in a plane crash, dying of various causes.  The chance of dying from HIV was 1 in 451. 

What shocked me was the average at death from HIV was 45.3 years old! 

The stats didn't give the source of the stats, and I guess if these go back to the beginning of the epidemic that might explain the low figure.  But at 42.3 years myself, I found this pretty sobering

[ScooterTrash]

...

[Central79]

Newspapers and statistics - not the best combination. I read an interesting Danish study that shows that a 25 yo man, diagnosed in 2006 (in Denmark) could expect to live almost 40 years, providing they don't get Hepatits C. That's still worse than diabetes, but a shed load better than 10 years ago.

How is this 42.3 years supposed to read? Doesn't it rather depend on how old you are when you get infected?! I could understand it if it was the average age of death of people with HIV, averaged over the whole of the epidemic, like you suggested.

Anyway, I choose to put my faith in the Danish study - it was pretty good. And it's based on therapy now, not in 10 years' time, when it will be soooo much better.

Matt.

[ndrew]

Here are all the numbers, but there are too many of them...

http://www.cdc.gov/hiv/topics/surveillance/resources/reports/2005report/table7.htm
http://www.cdc.gov/hiv/topics/surveillance/resources/reports/2005report/default.htm

Drew

[aupointillimite]

Score.

I can feel my midlife crisis coming on.

[Central79]

Thanks for posting these. Very interesting, although slightly overwhelming!

But as far as I can see, none of this data links death rates to date of diagnosis, which might give some idea of life expectancy. For example, table one just shows new diagnoses in each age group over a number of years.

Even the tables in section 4, that show survival categories after an AIDS diagnosis give no information as to when that person was infected, and how long they lived with HIV before developing AIDS.

Matt.

[Catman]

Oh, gosh! I'll be 44 this November! I'd better start getting in deep debt borrowing money from banks and never pay because I'll die and won't give a crap if my credit is damaged after that! I'll eat and travel in luxury from now on. While I do this I'll start having affairs based on sex only and become very unfaithful to my partner and enjoy each _uck because I'm going to be _ucked anyways! I'll stop taking my meds and get that holiday from meds that I've always desired but with a vl of 345 by the time I reach 45.3 it may reach only to 1000 but I'm dying anyways, right? Wow, there are so many naughty and pleasurable things I wanna do that I have too many in my mind to write down!  

PS(The past message is all joking! I don't believe in any statistics  because they are just like those movie critics. Sometimes they say a movie is terrible, but when we see it, we love it!)  I don't expect to die from hiv related complications at least until I'm over 50. Yea, right. I said that 21 years ago so I still got about 7 years to go...

[allanq]

Another example of a meaningless statisic. All this says is that if you consider those people who have died from HIV complications, their average age at death was 45.3 years. It doesn't mean that the average person with HIV will live to be only 45.3 years.

Think of it this way. Say the average age at death of people in fatal car accidents is 45.3. This statistic says nothing about the chances of someone dying in a car accident.

Allan

[bear60]

Statistics:
More than half a million people diagnosed with AIDS have died in the USA. Some 69% of these people did not live to the age of 45.

In 2005, the age group 35-44 years accounted for an estimated 33% of HIV diagnoses, 39% of AIDS diagnoses, and 41% of deaths of people diagnosed with AIDS. The estimated number of children (under 13) diagnosed with AIDS in 2005 was 58.

When interpreting HIV and AIDS statistics, it is important to remember that a person infected with HIV will probably not develop AIDS for several years - the average delay in the USA is around ten years without treatment, and longer if antiretroviral drugs are taken. Also, new diagnoses of HIV do not necessarily represent new infections, because people may live with the virus for a number of years before being tested.

http://www.avert.org/usastata.htm

[Ihavehope]

Here we go again with the statistics.

I was told 15 years then 20 years then 22.5 years then 35-40 years then Normal lifespan, now I have 20 years left? I guess I should plan retirement now at the age of 26.
Don't believe everything you read ladies  believe what the majority of people who are currently living with HIV and what the majority of doctors are telling you. Doctors read lots and lots of research articles and tend to make an estimate on the most reliable sources of information. If my doc said normal lifespan minus 6 months or a year, I shall try and focus on that statistic. My first doctor refused to answer my , how long do I have to live question, because she doesn't know. For all we know we can dies in 10 years after infection or 35 years after infection. I am actually glad there is no specific number, I guess I will be surprised.

[aupointillimite]

So, who wants to put up the fake headline?

"Proverbial Bus Makes Statistical Point About HIV/AIDS Lifespan Moot"

[sweetasmeli]

What does the .3 in 45.3 years stand for?? How can a year be represented in tenths? Thats nuts!

---Melia awaits with baited breath to view comments from all 45.3+ year old members---

Melia
(who isn't quite there yet but will keep spending her pounds and euros until her 45th birthday)

[bear60]

Here we go again with the statistics.  quote Ihave
.....................
Well, exactly.  And Ihave, maybe now you understand why Tim (Moffie) posted the thread about making your movie and starring in it. What he was saying was...go out and live your life... for gods sake.
I dont think reading statistics will get us anywhere.  Statistics do not tell the whole story.

[milker]

I'd like to see this article, so I can add the odds of dying because i'm in a car crash, plane crash, i have aids, a mountain lion or shark eats me alive, I get electrocuted by a 10000 volt pole that falls on me after I avoided getting crushed by 3 pounds hail, or because I swallow 3 gallons of dish washing liquid thinking by mistake, or dying of laughter reading articles like this and figure out if I should be dead already ?   

[aupointillimite]

I'd like to see this article, so I can add the odds of dying because i'm in a car crash, plane crash, i have aids, a mountain lion or shark eats me alive, I get electrocuted by a 10000 volt pole that falls on me after I avoided getting crushed by 3 pounds hail, or because I swallow 3 gallons of dish washing liquid thinking by mistake, or dying of laughter reading articles like this and figure out if I should be dead already ?   

What if all that happens while you're reading the article?

Irony!

[milker]

I'm in san diego, so hail won't happen Everything else could! A strong earthquake could generate a tsunami that throws a shark in my living room, you never know!

[Ihavehope]

So Should i stand in front of the bus when I turn 45.3 years old to beat death? Or just wait for death to come after me?  I usually like to be in control of things that is why I am asling. Suggestions please

[bear60]

Ihave...
suggestion: stop reading statistics and go out and get some dick. IMHO

oh...and use condoms!  Chocolate flavor?  or whatever flavor you like.

[jkinatl2]

Ihave...
suggestion: stop reading statistics and go out and get some dick. IMHO

oh...and use condoms!  Chocolate flavor?  or whatever flavor you like.

To be fair, no matter what flavor they start out with, dont they ALL end up?

Nevermind. I sorta grossed myself out here

[Ihavehope]

To be fair, no matter what flavor they start out with, dont they ALL end up?

Nevermind. I sorta grossed myself out here

Oh Johnny why bring us such a graphic scene in our heads, Shame on you, lolz.

[northernguy]

I'd like to see this article, so I can add the odds of dying because i'm in a car crash, plane crash, i have aids, a mountain lion or shark eats me alive, I get electrocuted by a 10000 volt pole that falls on me after I avoided getting crushed by 3 pounds hail, or because I swallow 3 gallons of dish washing liquid thinking by mistake, or dying of laughter reading articles like this and figure out if I should be dead already ?   

It's got a lot of those:
1 in 255 chance of a Canadian dying from poisoning.
1 in 11,903 from dying in a landslide or avalanche.
1 in 75,388 of dying from a bee, wasp or hornet sting.
1 in 4 chance of a structurally damaging earthquake hitting my city in the next 50 years

I should have clarified, my point wasn't so mcuh to say we're all gonna die at 45.3 years,  but to point out how many who have gone before us died to young.  The other major diseases had much higher avg age at death: lung cancer (70.2), breast cancer (68.6) etc.

[sweetasmeli]

Ihave...
suggestion: stop reading statistics and go out and get some dick. IMHO

oh...and use condoms!  Chocolate flavor?  or whatever flavor you like.

---Melia is seriously considering hiring bear60 as her therapist---

Please note though: My chocolate fetish does not extend to condoms. ALL rubbers taste of, well, rubber.
Except the vanilla ones...

Miss Melia Maximillius III
(who believes she may have revealed a little too much about her pastimes here... )

[aupointillimite]

To be fair, no matter what flavor they start out with, dont they ALL end up?

Nevermind. I sorta grossed myself out here

I just threw up into my mouth a little bit.

Tastes like carrots.   

[Dachshund]

If I've been dead for ten years...why the hell am I still working?

[manchesteruk]

How on earth did they come up with the figure of 45.3 years!  21.6 years and counting.......

Chris
(who decided to block the chocolate condom image from his head!)

[sweetasmeli]

To be fair, no matter what flavor they start out with, dont they ALL end up?

Nevermind. I sorta grossed myself out here

Omigod I just got that! BIG EEP! <insert puking emoticon here>

If I've been dead for ten years...why the hell am I still working?

BINGO! THAT'S the type of post I was waiting for! Thanks Mr Hal the Dachshund!

Miss Melia Maximillius III
(who may need a little lie down after all this excitement )

[zeb]

Well such a figure is at first sight a downbringer.

But the other side of the story is this:

1 In the Netherlands there a a few number of new borns with hiv. Doctors expect these kids (with treatment) to grow up and start families of their own.
2 In the Netherlands of all hiv positives 0,4% - 0,6% die each year of hiv/aids related illnesses. Part of these deaths are people who are resistant to alle available meds and the so called 'too late discoveries'.
3 Last year no one in Niedersachsen died of hiv/aids related illnesses.

We have now for 10 years HAART. So we don't know what will happen in the long run. Still people do die of hiv/aids.
But i have hope and perhaps i should regard this disease as an extra risk factor in live like driving 50.000 miles a year in my car without seat belts (perhaps that's a view that gives me some comfort).

Zeb

[jyngfilm]

dying is easy, its living that scares me to death. 
>> beating the statistics  and with Hep C   <<      But, none of us are getting out of hear alive, so ?? who cares.
i'd just like to die of something more glamorous.
~jorodn

[Matty the Damned]

Didn't any of you see Philladelphia or even that shining beacon of AIDS filmography In the Gloaming? We're all going to die radiantly peaceful deaths surrounded by our loved ones after having won court-cases and making peace with hitherto intractably bigotted relatives.

MtD

[ARMANDO]

AVERAGE DEATH OF A PERSON WHITH HIV 45.3 YRS?
WOW ,WELL I SAY BUY A NEW CAR AND FINANCE FOR 6 YRS!!!!

[David_CA]

When interpreting HIV and AIDS statistics, it is important to remember that a person infected with HIV will probably not develop AIDS for several years - the average delay in the USA is around ten years without treatment, and longer if antiretroviral drugs are taken. Also, new diagnoses of HIV do not necessarily represent new infections, because people may live with the virus for a number of years before being tested.

See, that's where statistics may give an 'over all' view of HIV & AIDS, but have little, if anything, to do with an individual.  I haven't been HIV+ for more than 4 years, was diagnosed HIV+ a year ago, and diagnosed with AIDS within 8 months of that (not on any meds during that time).  My numbers were fairly good, so 'statistically', I shouldn't have had any OI's.  Statistically, I shouldn't even be HIV+, based on the demographic statistics in our area (based on age, race, drug use, education, employment), but here I am!

To me, statistics like those dealing with HIV show an 'after the fact' picture, not what to really expect on a person-by-person basis.  And how about that 'statistic' about being more likely to get hit by a bus?  Where the hell did that come from?  I have a bus, so am I more likely to get hit by one?  Actually, I'm probably in less danger than my hubby, as he's the one that directs me when backing it into the driveway.  I'm not denying the usefullness of statistics, but to rely on them on a personal basis just doesn't seem too useful. 

And JK, that chocolate condom thing is just plain nasty (pretty funny, but nasty). 

I think I like Bear's suggestion best:

suggestion: stop reading statistics and go out and get some dick.

David

[sweetasmeli]

Didn't any of you see Philladelphia or even that shining beacon of AIDS filmography In the Gloaming? We're all going to die radiantly peaceful deaths surrounded by our loved ones after having won court-cases and making peace with hitherto intractably bigotted relatives.

MtD

After having won court cases???

HURRAH! The Damned One has spoken. And his word is binding!

Little Miss Melia
(who will keep spending her spondoolies till shes 40)  

(edited by request to remove personal information)

[Matty the Damned]

HURRAH! The Damned One has spoken. And his word is binding!

You got it, kid.

MtD

[Ihavehope]

1 out of 300 Americans has HIV. One third of them don't know they have it. Do you think the number of Americans infected with HIV will increase by a huge number in the near future?

[aupointillimite]

1 out of 300 Americans has HIV. One third of them don't know they have it. Do you think the number of Americans infected with HIV will increase by a huge number in the near future?

Yes... it already has been... because people are living longer... well, that's only one of the reasons.

[zeb]

Ihavehope,

If your figures are correct I think it will increase.
I mean: one third doesn't know, so... probably they were in most of the cases infected by those who don't know...

Zeb

[Catman]

I LOVE THE WAY THIS THREAD IS DEVELOPING! I CAN'T STOP LAUGHING AT THOSE WISE ASS ANSWERS! KEEP IT GOING PEOPLE! 

[aupointillimite]

I think we should have a Statistical Death Party for every member here who reaches 45.3 years old.

Your cake will have chocolate in it.

Oh, and a quick look at a calculator informs me that .3 years is 109 days 12 hours.

Everyone here above 45.3 years old gets a God Damn It, You're Statistically Taking Years Away From the Rest Of Us Party.

Your cake will have cyanide in it.

[bear60]

 
I thought we were friends Benj....I guess since I am a LTNP and over 60 I get a saw blade in my cake in case the cyanide dont work?

[aupointillimite]

I thought we were friends Benj....I guess since I am a LTNP and over 60 I get a saw blade in my cake in case the cyanide dont work?

All that, and more!

You get a circular saw and brand new Atlanta boyfriend, too!

Oooooooh!  Doesn't that sound exciting?

And don't use your "science" and your "facts" to try and convince me that you're some sort of exception to the statistics.   

[bear60]

oooooahhhhhh...do I get to choose the boyfriend?

[aupointillimite]

oooooahhhhhh...do I get to choose the boyfriend?

No.  But he does come with his own meth habit and no hands.   

[bear60]

watch out Benj...stumps turn me on!

[aupointillimite]

watch out Benj...stumps turn me on!

Damn.  I have failed.

[jkinatl2]

Show me a double amputee meth - head who is ALSO a goatbanger, and, well, then you are free to us alone My condom will be ALL chocolatey.

Jonathan
Who seems to be channeling Jerri Blanc today

[aupointillimite]

Show me a double amputee meth - head who is ALSO a goatbanger, and, well, then you are free to us alone My condom will be ALL chocolatey.

Jonathan
Who seems to be channeling Jerri Blanc today

If they were to show me that, we would all sit at the welcome table.  And sing about it.

[Catman]

watch out Benj...stumps turn me on!

Oh, bear! That was so gross! I don't know why, but I don't want an image of "fisting" with a stump when I'm in my deathbed in 2.3 years from now! Thats what the statistics say, right? Uh, huh.

[jonsi]

Yesterday I received an e-mail of a good friend of mine who just moved back to South Africa, after living two years in amsterdam. She was very happy and told me how great her new apartment was, how cute the surfers were, when she looked out the window she could see them challenging the waves, and she told me I should go very soon to visit her in Cape Town.

Today I received a call from another friend, telling me that he received a call from our South African friend's family. She was driving back to her new apartment when she crashed, we still don't know how, but she died instantly. She was the happiest person on earth, only 24 years old and she wasn't HIV positive.

For respect to her I can't believe in average age to die. She wasn't average, she didn't die like it either. I never considered myself average, and I'm surely will never do.

No matter what you do or what you keep yourself from doing, you won't scape death, and I think the point is to remember to live while we have the opportunity to do so. At leas, that's what my friend Martha would have said to me, yesterday, if she were to know what a few hours later was about to happen to her.

[aupointillimite]

Oh, bear! That was so gross! I don't know why, but I don't want an image of "fisting" with a stump when I'm in my deathbed in 2.3 years from now! Thats what the statistics say, right? Uh, huh.

Wouldn't it be called "stumping?"

[bear60]

I knew Jonathan was a blond...lol