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Author Topic: What really is life expectancy?  (Read 2143 times)

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Offline Almost2late

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What really is life expectancy?
« on: August 03, 2014, 11:56:12 AM »
And where the hell are they coming up with these numbers?  >:(
According to this link, after dx life expectancy for pozzies is average 24.2 years...
 
http://voxxi.com/2014/04/05/the-real-cost-of-hivaids/

Is there any truth to this?
"Every man has his own destiny: the only imperative is to follow it, to accept it, no matter where it leads him." - Henry Miller

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZBkwPYq4nhQ

“Nothing in the world can one imagine beforehand, not the least thing, everything is made up of so many unique particulars that cannot be forseen.” - Nostradamus

Offline wolfter

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Re: What really is life expectancy?
« Reply #1 on: August 03, 2014, 12:05:08 PM »
I clicked on the link and couldn't find any "data" beyond what the guest contributor asserted without any credible citations or links. 

The site itself seems legit enough but one guest column does not necessarily mean the stated stastics are correct.  I could do a cursory research but it doesn't mean anything to me personally.  If you're concerned with accurate figures, continue researching credible sites.

wolfie
« Last Edit: August 03, 2014, 12:33:35 PM by wolfter »
Complacency is the enemy.  ;)  Challenge yourself daily for maximum  return on investment.

Offline Almost2late

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Re: What really is life expectancy?
« Reply #2 on: August 03, 2014, 12:16:23 PM »
Thanks Wolfie,

Guess they can pull numbers from their butts and print them as facts, must have gotten those numbers from foxnews  :P

"Every man has his own destiny: the only imperative is to follow it, to accept it, no matter where it leads him." - Henry Miller

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZBkwPYq4nhQ

“Nothing in the world can one imagine beforehand, not the least thing, everything is made up of so many unique particulars that cannot be forseen.” - Nostradamus

Offline mecch

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Re: What really is life expectancy?
« Reply #3 on: August 03, 2014, 12:31:45 PM »
And where the hell are they coming up with these numbers?  >:(
According to this link, after dx life expectancy for pozzies is average 24.2 years...
 
http://voxxi.com/2014/04/05/the-real-cost-of-hivaids/

Is there any truth to this?

The figure you are looking for is going to change based on country, probably.  Also, anytime you find such a figure, its going to be a statistic based on populations. 

Is your objective to extrapolate that figure to your own experience?

If so, you must be VERY clever and precise about getting the meaningful figure, and then even more clever to understand how to extrapolate from statistics, to personal experience....   

Here in Switzerland many doctors routinely tell HIV+ people in regular care to plan for normal life expectancy.   That is a personal guestimate from a professional, the doctor, to an individual, and is probably more meaningful to an individual than population studies.

I hope you are not interested in this, in fact, to extrapolate to your own life expectancy...
« Last Edit: August 03, 2014, 12:34:08 PM by mecch »
“From each, according to his ability; to each, according to his need” 1875 K Marx

Offline Miss Philicia

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Re: What really is life expectancy?
« Reply #4 on: August 03, 2014, 01:02:34 PM »
The figure you are looking for is going to change based on country, probably.  Also, anytime you find such a figure, its going to be a statistic based on populations. 

In the US, life expectancy is based on where you live down to the county level. So if you consider that, more or less, life expectancy with HIV is now "normal" or close to it, if you are a white male you're chances of living longer are much MUCH higher in Fairfax County, VA (81.6 years)(affluent DC suburb) than in McDowell County, WV where your life expectancy is similar to living in Haiti (66.7) -- basically all of Appalachia is like that, and all of the affluent counties from DC to Boston that straddle I-95 are like Fairfax.

Just as we talk about income disparity there is similar, and somewhat linked, longevity gaps due to median income levels and healthcare access. So bottom line, if you want to live longer with HIV you might consider moving if you're diagnosed in your 20's.
"I’ve slept with enough men to know that I’m not gay"

Offline Almost2late

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Re: What really is life expectancy?
« Reply #5 on: August 03, 2014, 01:17:53 PM »
In the US, life expectancy is based on where you live down to the county level. So if you consider that, more or less, life expectancy with HIV is now "normal" or close to it, if you are a white male you're chances of living longer are much MUCH higher in Fairfax County, VA (81.6 years)(affluent DC suburb) than in McDowell County, WV where your life expectancy is similar to living in Haiti (66.7) -- basically all of Appalachia is like that, and all of the affluent counties from DC to Boston that straddle I-95 are like Fairfax.

Just as we talk about income disparity there is similar, and somewhat linked, longevity gaps due to median income levels and healthcare access. So bottom line, if you want to live longer with HIV you might consider moving if you're diagnosed in your 20's.

Then I should move, too close to that damn 95  >:( I knew it was no good..
thanks Ms.P

Is your objective to extrapolate that figure to your own experience?
  ???
Thank you Mecch for your response...

"Extrapolate - extend the application of (a method or conclusion, especially one based on statistics) to an unknown situation by assuming that existing trends will continue or similar methods will be applicable."

Lol, needed to look that up mecch, I'm just a blue collar guy, not a scientist.. I just plan on living a long time but I do like to know what the facts are, which is why I brought it up.. Is this a statistical fact? that's all 
"Every man has his own destiny: the only imperative is to follow it, to accept it, no matter where it leads him." - Henry Miller

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZBkwPYq4nhQ

“Nothing in the world can one imagine beforehand, not the least thing, everything is made up of so many unique particulars that cannot be forseen.” - Nostradamus

Offline mecch

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Re: What really is life expectancy?
« Reply #6 on: August 03, 2014, 02:11:35 PM »
Did you ever ask your doc this question? Might be the best starting point... How old are you.
“From each, according to his ability; to each, according to his need” 1875 K Marx

Offline Miss Philicia

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Re: What really is life expectancy?
« Reply #7 on: August 03, 2014, 02:25:11 PM »
Other factors in life expectancy: being treated before cd4 counts go below 350, your race, your gender, injection drug use, homosexual or heterosexual

http://www.aidsmap.com/Life-expectancy-now-considerably-exceeds-the-average-in-some-people-with-HIV-in-the-US/page/2816267/
"I’ve slept with enough men to know that I’m not gay"

Offline MitchMiller

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Re: What really is life expectancy?
« Reply #8 on: August 03, 2014, 04:52:37 PM »
Given I've been in treatment 12 years, I have about 12 years left.  At least I shouldn't have anything to worry about in terms of running out of money in retirement.   

Offline pittman

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Re: What really is life expectancy?
« Reply #9 on: August 03, 2014, 11:46:28 PM »
Given I've been in treatment 12 years, I have about 12 years left.  At least I shouldn't have anything to worry about in terms of running out of money in retirement.

When I get to my 23 year mark, I guess I will start smoking and drinking copious amounts, maybe some partying.  Sorta like that last fling in Capital City before entering the Hunger Games.   

Offline Miss Philicia

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Re: What really is life expectancy?
« Reply #10 on: August 04, 2014, 09:50:14 AM »
From my own personal experience it seems that the longer one has HIV the greater the risk of suicide. I think I've known seven people that were long-term survivors to take this route in the past decade -- either by traditional means, or non-traditional (halting HAART treatment buy lying about it, or overdosing on a combo of prescription and street drugs).

For some reason you don't see this as a front page story on magazines like POZ. And I also question how these deaths are reported -- they are HIV-related but I'm sure the death certificate indicates otherwise. Correct me if I am wrong.
"I’ve slept with enough men to know that I’m not gay"

Offline pittman

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Re: What really is life expectancy?
« Reply #11 on: August 04, 2014, 07:19:06 PM »
It would be worth a study to confirm higher suicide rates and causes.  Is it reaction to quality of life based on health, depression due to social isolation and stigma, drug side effects that increase depression, etc. 

There are plenty of other groups that are at high risk as well, and programs to try and help. 

Offline tablefor1

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Re: What really is life expectancy?
« Reply #12 on: August 04, 2014, 07:44:09 PM »
My ID doc said that if I take my meds, and do all of the obvious things (diet, exercise, no smoking, not drinking too much), I can expect to have a normal life-span.  I think I'll go with what she said since, you know, she's a medical doctor.

The part that seems unbelievable to me is that the article explicitly says that "individuals who are diagnosed early enough and stay on top of their treatment protocol have an average life expectancy of 24.2 years [...]."

I have a hard time believing that's the case unless maybe they're including people in the early 90s who were compliant with their drug regimen, but died anyway.  It would also be more believable if that figure included people who were non-compliant, since that could bring the average down dramatically. 

In short, there's good reason to be skeptical of this number.  It needs explanation, which is not provided in the article.

Offline drewm

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Re: What really is life expectancy?
« Reply #13 on: August 04, 2014, 08:20:52 PM »
I am fairly sure there are people on this forum who are well beyond the 24.2 year point.
Diagnosed in  May of 2010 with teh AIDS.

PCP Pneumonia . CD4 8 . VL 500,000

ATRIPLA - VALTREX -  FLUOXETINE - FENOFIBRATE


Numbers consistent since 12/2010 - VL has remained undetectable and CD4 is anywhere from 275-325

Offline Almost2late

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Re: What really is life expectancy?
« Reply #14 on: August 04, 2014, 08:46:59 PM »
Did you ever ask your doc this question? Might be the best starting point... How old are you.
53 with a "real" midlife crisis and must of been infected since 2001-2002 as this was when I was livin' la vida loca... also remember catching the worst flu of my life back then, went to the dr. but hiv was the furthest thing from my mind since I never had gay sex (not that theres anything wrong with it) so I was never tested.

I never asked my doc about life expectancy, but at the hospital when I was first dx the lung doc did kinda comfort me and reassured me that "this was not the 90's, people do live and get through this" as I was freaking out after the hospital ID doc said "you have full blown aids"  ??? , thats right, theres still a doctor that uses that line to scare the living shit out of his patients... and it worked.

Now that I'm feeling somewhat better, I think I will live as long as I can and keep passing the open windows.
"Every man has his own destiny: the only imperative is to follow it, to accept it, no matter where it leads him." - Henry Miller

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZBkwPYq4nhQ

“Nothing in the world can one imagine beforehand, not the least thing, everything is made up of so many unique particulars that cannot be forseen.” - Nostradamus

Offline tablefor1

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Re: What really is life expectancy?
« Reply #15 on: August 04, 2014, 09:06:51 PM »
I am fairly sure there are people on this forum who are well beyond the 24.2 year point.

Well, sure, but that could still fit, since we're talking about averages.  And it also makes sense that we would hear from more people who made it past the average here, since the people who didn't make it that far would be dead, and unable to comment on internet forums. 

Average life expectancy as of 2013 in the US for men and women is 79.8, so since I'm 34, I can expect to live another 45.8 years (give or take).  That's pretty far from the average, according to this article.  I'm thinking that the only way the 24.2 yr average could be correct is if there were a lot of people dying very early, which would throw off the average, or if there were a lot of people getting infected in their mid-50s or later, who then go on to live a normal life-span. 

So as I said in my last post, I suspect that the numbers are either just downright wrong, or maybe they include numbers from 1990-1996, which would grossly misrepresent the situation since things have changed so much since then.  It would be like including pre-penicillin syphilis deaths in today's syphilis statistics.

Offline leatherman

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Re: What really is life expectancy?
« Reply #16 on: August 04, 2014, 09:24:00 PM »
24 yrs? Not! Try 69 yrs for a 20 yr old diagnosed with above 350 cd4

http://www.poz.com/articles/near_normal_life_expectancy_2841_25378.shtml
Quote
April / May 2014
Treatment: Near-Normal Life Expectancy
by Benjamin Ryan

Life expectancy for young people taking HIV therapy has soared to nearly normal levels. Studying a sample of almost 23,000 adults living with HIV, researchers found that during 2000 to 2002 the average life expectancy for an HIV-positive 20-year-old on antiretrovirals (ARVs) was an additional 36 years. By 2006 to 2007, this figure had leapt to 51 years. During the latter period, men who have sex with men could expect 69 years past age 20 on average, compared with just 29 years for injection drug users. Those with CD4s above 350 within six months of beginning HIV treatment also had 69 years of life expectancy past age 20 at the study’s end, compared with just 47 years for those who started ARVs with CD4s below this threshold. People of color, although still trailing whites, made significant headway in closing the gap, starting the study with 30 extra years and ending with 48, while whites began with 53 more years and ended with 57.

who is Alice Holbrook and NerdWallet Health (some insurance/finance outfit)? and why is her article on Hispanic website Voxxi recently founded in 2011?
leatherman (aka mIkIE)


chart from 1992-2013; updated 2/09/13  Reyataz/Norvir/Truvada

Online zach

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Re: What really is life expectancy?
« Reply #17 on: August 04, 2014, 10:37:56 PM »
i'll die when i'm good and god damn ready. screw the report.... i hope every breath i take offends them to no end

Offline absopozilutely

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Re: What really is life expectancy?
« Reply #18 on: August 05, 2014, 12:38:26 AM »
i'll die when i'm good and god damn ready. screw the report.... i hope every breath i take offends them to no end

I effing love what Zach said, I'm a bit spiritual so I'll say the same thing with or when god needs me.
12/18 Infected
2/4 12:22pm tested POZ via ORAquick
2/19 WB Confirmation
2/4-2/19 VL 104,678 CD4 407
3/2 Genotype back, and Started Complera
4/2-CD4 688 38% and VL 1,600
5/1-CD4 592 42% and VL 336
5/22-CD4 732 31% and VL 109 :( STILL NOT UD!
5/31 Switched to Stribild :( I'll miss you Complera!
6/19 CD4 508 35% and VL UD!!!!! Crying at work like a baby.
9/19 CD4 799 46% VL UD yayyyy

Offline wolfter

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Re: What really is life expectancy?
« Reply #19 on: August 05, 2014, 05:40:08 AM »
From my own personal experience it seems that the longer one has HIV the greater the risk of suicide. I think I've known seven people that were long-term survivors to take this route in the past decade -- either by traditional means, or non-traditional (halting HAART treatment buy lying about it, or overdosing on a combo of prescription and street drugs).

For some reason you don't see this as a front page story on magazines like POZ. And I also question how these deaths are reported -- they are HIV-related but I'm sure the death certificate indicates otherwise. Correct me if I am wrong.

I've shared my story in the past even though it's terribly embarrassing for me.  Just prior to joining these forums, I made the idiotic decision to commit sanctioned suicide.  I felt so liberated for a while knowing it would all soon end.  Thank goodness I had a little bit of fight left in me.  Through the years, I've witnessed way too many that ended it this way.

As to statistics by area, I tend to disregard them.  For example, if someone moves from Charleston, WVA to Fairfax County, VA they aren't automatically granted a longer life.  Individuals can dictate (for the most part) how healthy they choose to be.

Why did the blond move 25 miles away?  She read that most accidents happened within 20 miles of your home.  :)
Complacency is the enemy.  ;)  Challenge yourself daily for maximum  return on investment.

Offline BKKKevin

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Re: What really is life expectancy?
« Reply #20 on: August 05, 2014, 06:21:55 AM »
You can increase your life by five years by drinking one glass of wine a day...

Offline wolfter

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Re: What really is life expectancy?
« Reply #21 on: August 05, 2014, 06:44:22 AM »
You can increase your life by five years by drinking one glass of wine a day...

THIS!!!!!!    :o  So 4 glasses a day adds 2 decades.  yes sir e
Complacency is the enemy.  ;)  Challenge yourself daily for maximum  return on investment.

Offline Miss Philicia

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Re: What really is life expectancy?
« Reply #22 on: August 05, 2014, 07:38:21 AM »

As to statistics by area, I tend to disregard them.  For example, if someone moves from Charleston, WVA to Fairfax County, VA they aren't automatically granted a longer life.  Individuals can dictate (for the most part) how healthy they choose to be.

Yes, but the thread is about "life expectancy" which, by its own nature, is about statistics -- so yes it's relevant. And if you find any injustice in income disparity growing in the US you should be find the topic of health disparity similarly disturbing. Seeing as how Fairfax has been #1 or #2 in median income for probably a decade or more illustrates the connection.
"I’ve slept with enough men to know that I’m not gay"

Offline bocker3

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Re: What really is life expectancy?
« Reply #23 on: August 05, 2014, 07:53:38 AM »
I always chuckle at these life expectancy threads. 
First, it is a waste of time to use a population study to "guesstimate" your personal results. 
Second, you could go out and get hit by a bus tomorrow, so why waste time worrying about when this study or that study says the "average person" will die?  Live your life now.  If you want to stay healthy, take your meds, eat right, exercise and stop stressing out over things you can't really control.
I mean, even before you became poz, you didn't know "how much time you had left".

Mike
Atripla - Started 12/05
Reyataz/Norvir - Added 6/06
Labs - Pre-Meds
Sep05 T=350/25% VL98,559
Nov05 288/18%  47,564
Current Labs
May2013 691/31% <20

Offline drewm

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Re: What really is life expectancy?
« Reply #24 on: August 05, 2014, 08:48:09 AM »
I always chuckle at these life expectancy threads. 
First, it is a waste of time to use a population study to "guesstimate" your personal results. 
Second, you could go out and get hit by a bus tomorrow, so why waste time worrying about when this study or that study says the "average person" will die?  Live your life now.  If you want to stay healthy, take your meds, eat right, exercise and stop stressing out over things you can't really control.
I mean, even before you became poz, you didn't know "how much time you had left".

Mike

This post sums up my thoughts perfectly.
Diagnosed in  May of 2010 with teh AIDS.

PCP Pneumonia . CD4 8 . VL 500,000

ATRIPLA - VALTREX -  FLUOXETINE - FENOFIBRATE


Numbers consistent since 12/2010 - VL has remained undetectable and CD4 is anywhere from 275-325

Offline stuka

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Re: What really is life expectancy?
« Reply #25 on: August 05, 2014, 09:01:04 AM »
I always chuckle at these life expectancy threads. 
First, it is a waste of time to use a population study to "guesstimate" your personal results. 
Second, you could go out and get hit by a bus tomorrow, so why waste time worrying about when this study or that study says the "average person" will die?  Live your life now.  If you want to stay healthy, take your meds, eat right, exercise and stop stressing out over things you can't really control.
I mean, even before you became poz, you didn't know "how much time you had left".

Mike

Good post. After the initial shock of diagnosis, my fear of an untimely death has subsided a bit. However, we cannot discount the way the human brain works altogether. Knowing that you have something living inside you that, when given a chance, can kill you. And not just any death, mind you. A horrible and painful death. Knowing that you must take a pill every day and get yourself checked every few months to stay alive does weigh heavily on you. Now you can argue that in the modern HAART era, we should all be thankful, and you would be absolutely correct in making this assertion. I would never compare my relatively easier (heck, an order of magnitude easier) ride to someone who was diagnosed in the early days when HAART was either non-existent or less effective.

However, being reminded of death on a daily basis and the fear of the unknown is always there. You an argue that it is counterproductive at times but I say that it is what keeps you vigilant as well about your health. It's the fear of death, not HIV, that makes me take my pill every day and go see my doctor every few months. So not all fears and worries are unwarranted.

Online Jeff G

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Re: What really is life expectancy?
« Reply #26 on: August 05, 2014, 09:17:23 AM »
After his obituary was mistakenly published, Mark Twain sent a cable from London stating "The reports of my death are greatly exaggerated."

I always think of this quote because I was told when I was barely out of my teens that I might live a year. I waited and waited and checked everyday after the year was up and as far as I could tell I never did die . I'm 52 now and this dieing of HIV thing is something I may have to reconsider as it looking like it may be old age or my smart mouth that does me in first . I keep my sense of humor but I never ever forget how lucky I am and how so many people I never knew and some I loved much didn't make it . I have HIV but from where I have been I am the lucky man . 

Offline Dan0

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Re: What really is life expectancy?
« Reply #27 on: August 05, 2014, 09:23:28 AM »
......not to mention the continual stress involved which can be a portent to any number of physical issues. What about my insurance? What if I lose my job? What if someone finds out? Can I change jobs? What if become resistant?

We see these every day on this forum and then the Grand-daddy of them all, fighting the beauraucracy for services and SSI, if the need ever comes. Stress, stress, and more stress!

The pill doesn't bother me, the DX doesn't really bother me. The constant fighting with yourself and others outside the daily regimen can be more than a bit taxing.
You can be the ripest, juiciest peach in the world, and there's still going to be somebody who hates peaches.

"Honey, you should never ask advice from a drunk drag queen who has a show to do." - JG

06/2002 DX
10/2006 Atripla UD
10/2013 Stribild Still UD

Offline Dachshund

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Re: What really is life expectancy?
« Reply #28 on: August 05, 2014, 09:40:56 AM »
I think it was around 94 the last time a doc told me I was gonna croak from da AIDS. I'm sticking with that.

Online zach

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Re: What really is life expectancy?
« Reply #29 on: August 05, 2014, 01:12:20 PM »
THIS!!!!!!    :o  So 4 glasses a day adds 2 decades.  yes sir e

brilliant, i do love an enabler

Offline Joe K

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Re: What really is life expectancy?
« Reply #30 on: August 05, 2014, 01:40:09 PM »
My life expectancy is how old I am when I die.  I know I'll be there when it happens, so why worry about something that I have absolutely no control over?

Life is for living... not worrying about when you are going to die.

Joe

Offline initforlife

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Re: What really is life expectancy?
« Reply #31 on: August 05, 2014, 01:43:31 PM »
I for one know that im living till the day I die :)  and I do hope it is a long life. After the med change so far I looking to  continue on even if my fear of meds gets to me a lot of days.
sometimes it is best to say nothing at all. then to offend

Offline Joe K

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Re: What really is life expectancy?
« Reply #32 on: August 05, 2014, 01:44:18 PM »
From my own personal experience it seems that the longer one has HIV the greater the risk of suicide. I think I've known seven people that were long-term survivors to take this route in the past decade -- either by traditional means, or non-traditional (halting HAART treatment buy lying about it, or overdosing on a combo of prescription and street drugs).

For some reason you don't see this as a front page story on magazines like POZ. And I also question how these deaths are reported -- they are HIV-related but I'm sure the death certificate indicates otherwise. Correct me if I am wrong.

^^^This.  Miss P speaks volumes with this post.  You have no idea how close to home these words hit.  I also know from experience that this happens... far too often not to be explored further as a form of treatment for LTS.

Joe

Offline pittman

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Re: What really is life expectancy?
« Reply #33 on: August 05, 2014, 08:22:41 PM »
Yes, but the thread is about "life expectancy" which, by its own nature, is about statistics -- so yes it's relevant. And if you find any injustice in income disparity growing in the US you should be find the topic of health disparity similarly disturbing. Seeing as how Fairfax has been #1 or #2 in median income for probably a decade or more illustrates the connection.

To your point, I would also add that when looking at life expectancy by location can lead to understanding what is common to that area's population to give them a different life expectancy. Someone who moved from WV to Fairfax might not experience some magical transformation that adds years to their life, if they continue to share the habits that they shared with their peers in WV.   After all, it's wasn't literally the dirt they stood on that drove them to a shorter life span.  (Though in the case of miners, it may be the dirt they dig in so to speak.)

Offline Miss Philicia

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Re: What really is life expectancy?
« Reply #34 on: August 05, 2014, 08:40:47 PM »
Someone who moved from WV to Fairfax might not experience some magical transformation that adds years to their life

If you go back and read my original post, that's why I suggested contemplating a move in your 20's, not in your 50's. Fairfax county has a population of over a million. I grew up next to it (Loudoun: #2 in life expectancy) and can assure you people born in these counties are a minority. Both have a high amount of their residents that have migrated there.

Not sure why this is a contentious idea. After college is when you look for a job and figure out where to live.

ps: only 3 decades ago the socioeconomic differential for life expectancies in the US was only 1.2 years. Now it's 15.5 (for men) and 11.7 (for women). Does this not bother anyone?
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Offline pittman

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Re: What really is life expectancy?
« Reply #35 on: August 11, 2014, 12:28:17 AM »
I did read your original post Miss Philicia, which was why I agreed with it and added the context for why it was true despite the fact that someone merely moving would not necessarily see a change in their life expectancy.  The other poster's argument  trying to refute life expectancy variations by geography was too simplisticly assuming geography was purportedly the literal cause. 


Offline absopozilutely

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Re: What really is life expectancy?
« Reply #36 on: August 11, 2014, 12:43:39 AM »
I like both of you, but we should turn down the condescending tones just a tiny bit, using bigger words to help legitimize your argument isn't going to win any votes, lol,
Now me, I'm 24 and from California, I'm probably screwed. Lol
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