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Author Topic: Study Estimates HIV Is Transmitted During 1 in 900 Acts of Unprotected Heterosex  (Read 2213 times)

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Offline tednlou2

  • Member
  • Posts: 4,760
If this needs to be moved to Research, please do so.  I posted it here, since this is discussed fairly regularly in this forum.  About these studies-- I know more heterosexuals, worldwide, are affected by HIV, so I understand why there are more studies on heterosexual sex.  However, it seems homosexual sex is always a mystery.  In many of these studies, they will say they don't have good figures or studies on homosexual sex.  Can they not get enough reliable data or participation from us gays?

http://www.thebody.com/content/65486/study-estimates-hiv-is-transmitted-during-1-in-900.html

Offline spacebarsux

  • Member
  • Posts: 1,350
  • Survival of the Fittest
These statistics make me want to throw up.  >:(
Infected-  2005 or early 2006; Diagnosed- Jan 28th, 2011; Feb '11- CD4 754 @34%, VL- 39K; July '11- CD4 907@26%,  VL-81K; Feb '12- CD4 713 @31%, VL- 41K, Nov '12- CD4- 827@31%

Offline Ann

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  • It just is, OK?
    • Num is sum qui mentiar tibi?
Those kind of stats are rubbish and I wish the so-called "experts" would knock it off already. They serve no good purpose when it comes to prevention efforts. I mean, even if this one in 900 is correct, who's to say which time in those 900 it's going to happen? It could happen the first time, the 289th time, the 538th time, or the 900th time.

What bothers me is that stats like that can have the effect of lulling people into a false sense of security.
Condoms are a girl's best friend

Condom and Lube Info  



"...health will finally be seen not as a blessing to be wished for, but as a human right to be fought for." Kofi Annan

Nymphomaniac: a woman as obsessed with sex as an average man. Mignon McLaughlin

HIV is certainly character-building. It's made me see all of the shallow things we cling to, like ego and vanity. Of course, I'd rather have a few more T-cells and a little less character. Randy Shilts

Offline spacebarsux

  • Member
  • Posts: 1,350
  • Survival of the Fittest
Those kind of stats are rubbish and I wish the so-called "experts" would knock it off already. They serve no good purpose when it comes to prevention efforts. I mean, even if this one in 900 is correct, who's to say which time in those 900 it's going to happen? It could happen the first time, the 289th time, the 538th time, or the 900th time.

What bothers me is that stats like that can have the effect of lulling people into a false sense of security.

Ezzzzaklly!!

1 in 900 will come back to haunt you when "that one" is YOU.
Infected-  2005 or early 2006; Diagnosed- Jan 28th, 2011; Feb '11- CD4 754 @34%, VL- 39K; July '11- CD4 907@26%,  VL-81K; Feb '12- CD4 713 @31%, VL- 41K, Nov '12- CD4- 827@31%

Offline Valmont

  • Member
  • Posts: 331
Pfffffffffffffff, these statistic are the worst and make people taking risks...  They should not be published ever.  Who has done it?  How??????  I don´t even think these numbers are real....  The same happen with statistic about other ways how to be infected...

I´ve been exposed only one time and got it, and I´m probably not the only one...
« Last Edit: January 25, 2012, 08:53:25 AM by Valmont »
Apr 2011: Diagnotized
Jun 2011: CD4: 504  VL: 176.000
Dic 2011: CD4: 714  VL: 95.000
May 2012: CD4: 395 VL: 67.000
Jun 2012: CD4: 367
Agu 2012: Starting Emtricitabine 200 mg / Tenofovir 300 mg and Efavirenz 600 mg (2 pills) different brands or VIRADAY/ATRIPLA/Mylan....
Sep 2012: VL: 138
Dic 2012: CD4: 708 VL: <34  %CD4: 32%
Jan 2013: CD4: 707 VL: <20
May 2013: CD4: 945 VL: <34 %CD4: 33%
Agu 2013: CD4: 636 VL: <34 %CD4: 50%
Dic 2013: Latent TB, started Isoniazid

Offline Hellraiser

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  • Posts: 4,136
  • Semi-misanthropic
I don't think you guys understand statistics.  Yes it might be 1 in 900 but that is a relatively high number, think about how many people are going at it each day and while 1 in 900 may sound like an easy to avoid number to you that would make it quite common.  They are releasing statistics because statistically this is the conclusion their research came to.

also: "The exact risk of HIV transmission during a specific activity has always been a difficult number to pin down, and some experts were quick to note that the "1 in 900" figure should not be regarded as carved in stone. "The study provides a number that people may quote as to the risk of infection per episode of intercourse, but this ranged considerably," said David Wohl, M.D."

Offline buginme2

  • Member
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Something was lost in the translation from the actual study to what was reported in the media.  The results of the study were:

Conclusions. Modifiable risk factors for HIV-1 transmission were plasma HIV-1 RNA level and condom use, and, in HIV-1–uninfected partners, herpes simplex virus 2 infection, genital ulcers, Trichomonas vaginalis, vaginitis or cervicitis, and male circumcision.

The study was completed valid and not at all "rubbish" (and thats not just because it was completed at the University of Washington Bioethics Dept -woot woot).  Sometimes you cant control which part of the story the media picks up on and runs with.

Offline Cosmicdancer

  • Member
  • Posts: 146
Given that this 1 in 900 figure is based on a study of unprotected sex between serodiscordant couples who are not on meds, it is actually a fairly low figure.  The danger is that some people will conclude that they can beat the odds and not worry about using condoms consistently.  If there's any benefit to these figures, perhaps it will provide some comfort to the OCD people who write in to the POZ forums that they are feeling suicidal after having a brief unprotected incident while with a sex worker of unknown status, and are convinced they are now infected. 

I see some value in these statistics given the reality of criminal prosecution of people with HIV for alleged non-disclosure and unprotected sex.  The finding that being undetectable reduces risk by 96% during unprotected sex would mean, in the case of heterosexuals, one unprotected sexual encounter would carry a risk of 1 in 22,500.  I think a little less hysteria would be a good thing. 
Summer, 2007 - &$#@?
November, 2007 - Tested poz, 300,000 vl, 560 cd4
Feb, 2008 - 57,000 vl, 520 cd4, started Atripla
June, 2008 - undetectable, 612 cd4
January, 2009 - undetectable, 670 cd4
May, 2009 - undetectable, 593 cd4
Sept, 2009 - 83 vl, 763 cd4, 34%
Dec, 2009 - undetectable, 889 cd4, 32%
April, 2010 - undetectable, 860 cd4, 31%
October, 2010 - undetectable, 800 cd4, 38%
April, 2011 - undetectable, t-cell test not done
October, 2011 - undetectable
April, 2012 - undetectable, 850 cd4, 39%
November, 2012 - undetectable, 901 cd4, 41%
April, 2013 - undetectable, 846 cd4, 36%
October, 2013 - undetectable
May, 2014 - undetectable, 784 cd4, 48%

Offline spacebarsux

  • Member
  • Posts: 1,350
  • Survival of the Fittest
Well Hellraiser, Bug and Cosmicdancer the real crux of the matter is that:

1. the message of always wearing condoms for sexual intercourse does not change.

2. Even one unprotected exposure is enough for transmission to occur.

So given the above, all these statistics are just intellectual masturbation at best and (like Ann said) may lull people into a false sense of security at worst.
Infected-  2005 or early 2006; Diagnosed- Jan 28th, 2011; Feb '11- CD4 754 @34%, VL- 39K; July '11- CD4 907@26%,  VL-81K; Feb '12- CD4 713 @31%, VL- 41K, Nov '12- CD4- 827@31%

Offline jason1972

  • Member
  • Posts: 8
The sad point in all of this is noone needs  become HIV+ it is preventable If younger generation would wake up!!

Even 1 is to many to have to go through what i have been through and i agree people that put these out for the public to read..As a young kid i always thought it will not be me i am to smart I only have sex with woman I am not gay so it wont be me..WOW was that thinking wrong my young dumb ass i was..SO WAKE up the younger people out there

Offline denb45

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  • "1987 Classic Old School POZ+"
"it's so nice to be insane, cause no-one ask you to explain" Helen Reddy cc 1974

Offline SANJUANDUDE

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 :)  When I was bartending in a gay bar, unfortunately, I would be several persons who would literally boast about having unprotected sex.  When I would ask why they would take the chance, the response on more than one occasion was, "it's easier to be positive."  True story!!!!!! ???

http://timehasshownme.com
10/2011-CD-4-598-Undetectable
01/2012-CD-4-758-Undetectable
04/2012-CD$-780-70 Viral Load
08-2012-CD4-846--20 viral load
02/2013-CD$ 865----20 Undetectable Viral Load
08/2013- CD4-898----<20 undetectable viral load

Offline newt

  • Member
  • Posts: 3,877
  • the one and original newt
People take comfort in population level risk estimates which don't really apply to them individually...ho hum

I always liked this report:

Common estimate of heterosexual HIV transmission risk sometimes far too low
http://i-base.info/htb/44

- matt
"The object is to be a well patient, not a good patient"

Offline bocker3

  • Member
  • Posts: 3,358
  • You gotta enjoy life......
Newt hit the problem right on the head.  The average person reads statistics and think they apply the THEM -- when they almost always are referring to a population.  An individuals risk is impossible to quantitate because there are so many variables that come into play.  Thus, the "rubbish" piece is presenting a scientific finding to an unscientific audience who gets to interpret it as they see fit.

Mike
Atripla - Started 12/05
Reyataz/Norvir - Added 6/06
Labs - Pre-Meds
Sep05 T=350/25% VL98,559
Nov05 288/18%  47,564
Current Labs
May2013 691/31% <20

Offline mecch

  • Member
  • Posts: 11,236
  • red pill? or blue pill?
I've had sex more than 900 times! I bet I've had sex with over 900 people. I had unprotected sex less than 900 times with 10ish women. I have had unprotected sex only dozens of times with men. Would someone please tell me what my risk... oh wait a minute darn I've already got it.
“From each, according to his ability; to each, according to his need” 1875 K Marx

Offline Ann

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  • It just is, OK?
    • Num is sum qui mentiar tibi?
Newt hit the problem right on the head.  The average person reads statistics and think they apply the THEM -- when they almost always are referring to a population.  An individuals risk is impossible to quantitate because there are so many variables that come into play.  Thus, the "rubbish" piece is presenting a scientific finding to an unscientific audience who gets to interpret it as they see fit.

Mike

Yep, that's exactly what we see going on over in Am I when people get hold of those types of stats and that's why I think it's rubbish. Does my head in.
Condoms are a girl's best friend

Condom and Lube Info  



"...health will finally be seen not as a blessing to be wished for, but as a human right to be fought for." Kofi Annan

Nymphomaniac: a woman as obsessed with sex as an average man. Mignon McLaughlin

HIV is certainly character-building. It's made me see all of the shallow things we cling to, like ego and vanity. Of course, I'd rather have a few more T-cells and a little less character. Randy Shilts

Offline Andy Velez

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  • Member
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"Statistics" can be dredged up (or created) to support pretty much any point someone wants to make.

That's why we focus on specific details to evaluate any particular situation someone is concerned about.

Andy Velez

Offline jkinatl2

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  • Posts: 6,007
  • Doo. Dah. Dipp-ity.
"Statistics" can be dredged up (or created) to support pretty much any point someone wants to make.

That's why we focus on specific details to evaluate any particular situation someone is concerned about.



Exactly. Each incident is unique, even among committed partners.

"Many people, especially in the gay community, turn to oral sex as a safer alternative in the age of AIDS. And with HIV rates rising, people need to remember that oral sex is safer sex. It's a reasonable alternative."

-Kimberly Page-Shafer, PhD, MPH

Welcome Thread

Offline LM

  • Member
  • Posts: 409
I agree, these statistics do more harm than good. In my case, I knew about them, I knew how "hard" it was to get HIV when I got careless. I thought "what are the odds of it happening to me?". Well, here I am.

Offline RapidRod

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  • Posts: 15,277
That is exactly why I quit having unprotected heterosexual sex years ago.  ;)

 


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