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Poll

What you think private HIV research is favorising ?

Money first (chronic disease)
Health first (cure)
Both
Other opinion
Neutral opinion

Author Topic: The HIV drugs market  (Read 3008 times)

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

Offline John2038

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The HIV drugs market
« on: October 05, 2007, 12:16:38 PM »
Hi,

I know that for some of you, this post might look very provocative, but this is not the aim.

Just an interrogation:

With so many people contaminated (40 millions), the HIV research has become a huge business .

If the HIV pandemic has started around 25 years ago (*), we still haven't find the way to eradicate it.

Compared to the average time spent to discover a vaccine for others diseases, 25 years seems now to be quite a long time.

I don't believe that there are some kind of alliance between the pharmaceutical companies saying something like:
Lets found a way to slow down the virus progression (instead of trying to found a cure) so that the HIV become a chronic disease (and so, generate profit)
but I believe that such thoughts might have inspired more than one Director of Research.
 
What is your opinion (poll) ?


Note

(*) The virus made its first apparition 50 years ago:
http://www.documentary-film.net/search/watch-now.php?&ref=5SIDA
This report, made by the main European televisions, is in French. It mainly try to demonstrate that the HIV have been transmitted  from the monkey to the human, during a vaccination campaign in Ouganda against the poliomyelitis 50 years ago.
It is also estimated that 100 millions of people will die of the AIDS in the next 50 years.



The HIV industry


The HIV market will grow to $10.6 billion by 2015, driven in part by new drugs from Merck, Pfizer and Tibotec, according to an analyst report released in April 07.





The market, which was worth about $7.1 billion in 2005, will undergo significant changes over the next several years, including the introduction of important new classes of drugs, projects the report from the analyst firm Datamonitor.

“We’re expecting the market to grow to about $10 billion in the next 10 years, despite patent expires occurring for several key HIV drugs,” Mansi Shah, Datamonitor infectious diseases analyst and author of the report, told United Press International.

The projected growth is “mainly due to the launch of new drugs,” Shah added.

This includes Pfizer’s CCR5 inhibitor Celsentri, Merck’s integrase inhibitor Isentress and also Tibotec’s non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors, TMC125 and TMC278.



Atripla, which was developed by Gilead and Bristol-Myers Squibb, also will help propel the increase in the market. Atripla has already been launched in the United States and it is expected to be launched this year in Europe.

Celsentri and Isentress are expected to steal market share from Roche’s Fuzeon, which currently dominates the late-stage therapy. Because Celsentri and Isentress are orally available, they will probably have an advantage over Fuzeon, which has to be given by injection and is expensive, Shah said.

As a result, Fuzeon will probably be marginalized to use in patients who have no other treatment options, she added.

Pfizer’s Celsentri is expected to be launched later this year, followed by Merck’s Isentress in 2008.

The Datamonitor report projects sales of Celsentri to reach $350 million in 2015, while Isentress will bring in $400 million.

Atripla, which appears to be enjoying a rapid uptake so far, is on track for sales of $1.7 billion by 2015.

Tibotec’s TMC125 is expected to be launched in 2008 followed by TMC278 in 2009. TMC125 will probably be limited to late-stage use, but TMC278 is expected to be used in early-line therapy and to consequently have more impact on the market, Shah said.

The Datamonitor report forecasts TMC125 sales will hit $200 million by 2015 while TMC278 will exceed more than $500 million in sales.

Tibotec said TMC125 was being developed for treatment-experienced patients and TMC278 was being developed for treatment-naive patients.

Pamela Van Houten, spokeswoman for Tibotec, told UPI the company plans to release data on TMC125 this year as well as file for regulatory approval.

Regarding TMC278, Van Houten said the company released data from phase 2b studies this year and plans to start phase 3 studies by the end of the year. She said it’s too early to project a filing date for that compound.

Van Houten said the company does not share information about sales forecasts for its products.

Tibotec is also continuing to develop Prezista, its protease inhibitor that was launched last year for treatment-experienced patients.

Van Houten said the company is conducting phase 3 studies involving treatment-naive patients, the data from which will be reported later this year.

“Assuming the data warrant it, we will be filing for an indication in treatment-naive patients,” she said. The company has not established a firm timeline for when it will file, however.

“Advances in anti-retroviral therapy have turned HIV from a universally feared ‘death sentence’ into a chronic disease with an average life expectancy similar to that of type 2 diabetes,” Shah said. “Because of this, attitudes towards HIV have become relatively blase amongst some groups.”

In addition, campaigns to increase HIV awareness and new diagnostic tests also are expected to increase the number of those infected with the virus who receive treatment.

One can hear the devil laugh… or better: the pharm industry: average life expectancy similar to that of type 2 diabetes without being ever cured but neither shortening life too much. Steve Mitchell (UPI) has it even clearer: “The number of people infected with HIV is also expected to increase, which will also help drive sales in this market. In some ways, the effectiveness of medications in controlling the illness may actually be contributing to the problem.” Despite the use of the term “problem” the optimistic analysts do not seem to see any. And it seems highly unlikely that anyone of the players in that “market” is interested in ever preventing or healing this “problem” that in other terms might be seen as an incurable disease. ‘Infected people being helpful to drive sales’ - what a perspective! Must be that profit rates deriving from those sales are close to 100 per cent.
« Last Edit: October 05, 2007, 04:07:46 PM by John2038 »

Offline Basquo

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Re: HIV and economy.
« Reply #1 on: October 05, 2007, 12:52:50 PM »
The first part of this post doesn't make much sense to me, so I'll focus on the poll itself.

Do you us to answer what we think HIV research should do, or what we think HIV research is doing? (That's two different things)

And if anyone can clear up the rest of it please feel free to enlighten me. Maybe I'm not concentrating hard enough.

Offline John2038

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Re: HIV and economy.
« Reply #2 on: October 05, 2007, 01:00:28 PM »
Hops its more clear now.
Thank you for your comment.

Offline John2038

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Re: The HIV drugs market
« Reply #3 on: October 06, 2007, 04:46:19 AM »
Please post relevant article related to this interrogation.

Offline Matty the Damned

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Re: The HIV drugs market
« Reply #4 on: October 06, 2007, 06:07:48 AM »
Yairs John, the issue you raise about drug companies profiteering from HIV medications is an old and well known one to those of us who've been about the traps for a while.

Essentially your argument (or that of the "research" you reference above) is that the drug companies develop treatments that suppress HIV but don't cure it so that they might maximise their profits, the implication being that there is some sort of conspiracy to withold potential cures.

Like many conspiracy theories it seems attractive on the surface but doesn't hold up to sustained scrutiny.

MtD
(Who doesn't find tin foil hats at all flattering)

Offline John2038

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Re: The HIV drugs market
« Reply #5 on: October 06, 2007, 06:46:34 AM »
Not a conspiracy.

But a natural thought:

Looking for a cure can take so much time to only generate profit at the end.
While transforming this disease into a chronic disease might provide intermediate results and benefits before the a cure is found.

I believe that companies have make the choice to focus their effort providing drugs that "inactivate" the virus, while the real and true fundamental research is probably more the activity of the universities.

I new to this HIV world, and if I have read a lot, I have never been involved in such discussions before.
Sorry if it was the case for some of you here.

But I'd like to maintain this discussion, because I'm convince, despite I know my status since 2-3 weeks, that this interrogation is founded.

If that is the case, then the monies people are donating should better go (a large proportion of it) to finance the fundamental research instead of looking for another molecule to increase its diversity. Why ? because the private company are already taking care of making new drugs that inhibit some characteristic of the virus.

Is there a website centralizing all the research financed by donations and public funds ?

 

Offline Basquo

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Re: The HIV drugs market
« Reply #6 on: October 06, 2007, 07:23:18 AM »
I'll agree that the drug companies are getting a lot of money for the drugs they manufacture to keep us alive longer (for a lot of medical conditions, not just HIV/AIDS.)  But they're spending a lot of their own money on the research and development of these drugs. Money from donations and public funds only go so far in research, so the drug companies fork up a bunch of their own funds to finish the process of making the meds and holding trials and getting approval.

I've nothing to back that up.  I think I read it somewhere.

Offline allopathicholistic

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Re: The HIV drugs market
« Reply #7 on: October 06, 2007, 08:33:04 AM »
Here's a related thread from earlier:
http://forums.poz.com/index.php?topic=12903.0

Offline bear60

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Re: The HIV drugs market
« Reply #8 on: October 06, 2007, 11:36:55 AM »
dirty?
quote John..... "so many people contaminated "

I agree that conspiracy theory is not the way to look at the issue. AND I agree that a CURE is being researched but not found.  There may never be a cure but rather a way to control.
Poz Bear Type in Philadelphia

Offline John2038

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Re: The HIV drugs market
« Reply #9 on: October 06, 2007, 01:47:43 PM »
No vote for the "Health first (cure)" options  ;D

Offline RapidRod

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Re: The HIV drugs market
« Reply #10 on: October 07, 2007, 09:54:43 PM »
Look at the common cold. How long has it been around? Have they found a cure NO.There may never be a CURE, but I'm sure preventive vaccines will come.

Offline John2038

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Re: The HIV drugs market
« Reply #11 on: October 08, 2007, 12:45:05 PM »
Between the flu and the hiv, there are just few thousand billions of differences in the investments.

Cigarettes are well known to be bad for the health, but they are still sold.
Oil can be replaced by hygrogen, colza,  etc.  but we are still using oil despite the global warming.

Why would the hiv research be different ?


Offline RapidRod

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Re: The HIV drugs market
« Reply #12 on: October 08, 2007, 03:14:43 PM »
You've got to be kidding? Do you know the benefits a research company would reap if they could find a cure for HIV? The dollar amount would be staggering. That's not to even mention all the other research that would be made available and the grants to go with it.

Offline John2038

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Re: The HIV drugs market
« Reply #13 on: October 08, 2007, 03:29:40 PM »
Lets put in the balance the money generated by

40 millions of poz living X years (chronic disease) against 40 millions taking the cure between 1 time and Y years (if Y too close to X, its not a cure..)

Let say X= 39 (Oxford Journal), Y = 2

The chronic disease is still generating 19.5 time more money.

The profit is not limited to the drugs themselves, but to a lot of derived services & products
« Last Edit: October 08, 2007, 03:59:02 PM by John2038 »

Offline Bucko

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Re: The HIV drugs market
« Reply #14 on: October 08, 2007, 03:50:59 PM »
I sat through enough of the documentary (11 minutes) to get where the linked story is coming from. It stems from an article published in Rolling Stone magazine in 1992 about the possible transfer of SIV to humans in the 1950s during Polio vaccinations.

The razor's edge of denialism is thinner here than usual. I am forwarding links (in English) to the mods, who can decide for themselves.

But I will say that anyone who gets their cutting-edge HIV information from 15-year old articles published in a rock & roll publication is definitely ready for the tin-foil hat. It's essentially rubbish.
Blessed with brains, talent and gorgeous tits.

The revolutionary smart set reads The Spin Cycle at least once every day.

Blathering on AIDSmeds since 2005, provocative from birth

Offline milker

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Re: The HIV drugs market
« Reply #15 on: October 08, 2007, 04:06:05 PM »
I watched the documentary and it's too long, keeps saying that there is a proof that the virus came from massive polio vaccination to at the very end (about 30 seconds before the end of the documentary  :o) say there is no proof, just strong coincidences.

Milker.
mid-dec: stupid ass
mid-jan: seroconversion
mid-feb: poz
mar 07: cd4 432 (35%) vl 54000
may 07: cd4 399 (28%) vl 27760
jul 07: cd4 403 (26%) vl 99241
oct 07: cd4 353 (24%) vl 29993
jan 08: cd4 332 (26%) vl 33308
mar 08: cd4 392 (23%) vl 75548
jun 08: cd4 325 (27%) vl 45880
oct 08: cd4 197 (20%) vl 154000 <== aids diagnosis
nov 2 08 start Atripla
nov 30 08: cd4 478 (23%) vl 1880 !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
feb 19 09: cd4 398 (24%) vl 430 getting there!
apr 23 09: cd4 604 (29%) vl 50 woohoo :D :D
jul 30 09: cd4 512 (29%) vl undetectable :D :D
may 27 10: cd4 655 (32%) vl undetectable :D :D

Now accepting applications from blowjob ninjas™

Offline John2038

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Re: The HIV drugs market
« Reply #16 on: October 08, 2007, 04:20:15 PM »
The strong coincidences are

- The dates same for polio vaccination campaign  and HIV apparition (1958-9)
- The same location for both
- The similitudes between the monkey VIH and human VIH and the fact that the vaccine come from the monkey kidney (which might have contains the monkey VIH)

For me, they are not coincidences, but a proof.

This "theory" can't be demonstrated  because the last sample of the vaccine have disappear.

In more, the guy in charge of these vaccine have contradict himself a couple of time (proof exists) regarding the origin of the cells used in the vaccine (monkeys cells).
« Last Edit: October 08, 2007, 04:31:41 PM by John2038 »

Offline Andy Velez

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Re: The HIV drugs market
« Reply #17 on: October 08, 2007, 04:29:34 PM »
John, I suggest that rather than proselytizing for outdated and unproven theories you focus on taking care of your health. I appreciate that you are approaching these matters with all the enthusiasm and hope of someone who's only very newly diagnosed.

But there are many here who have been around this same block and other like ones many, many times about this subject and others similar to it.

Rather than drain off your energy and and the good will of others here in pointless to and fro about what you are saying you're "so sure" about, again i recommend that you get better acquainted with where your health is at right now and what you need to do to stay in the best condition.

Andy Velez

Offline StrongGuy

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Re: The HIV drugs market
« Reply #18 on: October 08, 2007, 06:08:20 PM »
Quote
You've got to be kidding? Do you know the benefits a research company would reap if they could find a cure for HIV? The dollar amount would be staggering. That's not to even mention all the other research that would be made available and the grants to go with it.
I'd agree with the above and statement and some others. I have some issues with the Pharmas (love-love-sometimes hate), but I don't believe the conspiracy.
« Last Edit: October 08, 2007, 06:10:37 PM by StrongGuy »
"Get your medical advice from Doctors or medical professionals who you trust and know your history."

"Beware of the fortune teller doom and gloomers who seek to bring you down and are only looking for company, purpose and validation - not your best physical/mental interests."

"You know you all are saying that this is incurable. When the real thing you should be saying is it's not curable at the present time' because as we know, the great strides we've made in medicine." - Elizabeth Edwards

Offline JamieD

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Re: The HIV drugs market
« Reply #19 on: October 09, 2007, 10:05:51 AM »
It's really hard to say. Pharmaceutical companies are a business first and foremost, and they are in the business of making money. I think they do genuinely care about people's health, but that is a secondary concern. I have seen some preliminary research of some old drugs that seemed to treat HIV very well in phase 1 clinical trials, but because they are cheap and old there is no motivation for pharmaceutical companies to persue their use. I've always thought. even before I had HIV that there were much gentler ways of treating the disease, but they're also cheap and so no one has any interest in studying them.

Offline John2038

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Re: The HIV drugs market
« Reply #20 on: October 10, 2007, 05:25:10 PM »
I appreciate you suggestion Andy.
Thanks to let me know what is important for me.

 


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