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Author Topic: Study: Those on drugs 92 percent less likely to infect partner  (Read 2505 times)

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Offline DanKenny

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Meds sharply cut HIV transmission risk // Study: Those on drugs 92 percent less likely to infect partner


http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/37367084/ns/health-aids/

My Progress:

09/07:   771   ~    <50     ~   29%
03/07:   493   ~    227      ~   22%
02/07:   Began Meds ~~ ATRIPLA
01/07:   315   ~   45, 000  ~   18%
10/06:   350   ~   32, 430  ~   22%
04/06:   440   ~   23, 997  ~   24%
07/05:   621   ~   36,000   ~   24%
01/05:   842   ~   2306      ~   28%
07/04:   615   ~   3370      ~   27%
04/04:   674   ~   739        ~   26%
11/03:   439   ~   2800      ~   22%
Infected probably around 1997 / Diagnosed 2002

Offline WhySoUnfair

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Re: Study: Those on drugs 92 percent less likely to infect partner
« Reply #1 on: May 27, 2010, 07:23:24 AM »

Meds sharply cut HIV transmission risk // Study: Those on drugs 92 percent less likely to infect partner


http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/37367084/ns/health-aids/


When it happens, it's either 0% or 100%!!

Offline Hellraiser

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Re: Study: Those on drugs 92 percent less likely to infect partner
« Reply #2 on: May 27, 2010, 07:34:02 AM »
When it happens, it's either 0% or 100%!!

Debbie Downer Strikes again

Offline Boze

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Re: Study: Those on drugs 92 percent less likely to infect partner
« Reply #3 on: May 27, 2010, 08:13:24 AM »
When it happens, it's either 0% or 100%!!

I actually bothered to read the story and cut out the relevant bit:

"The team analyzed 3,400 couples from seven African countries. In each couple, only one partner was positive for the human immunodeficiency virus, or HIV, which causes AIDS. The team tested couples because they were easier to keep track of.
All of the couples were given counseling on HIV prevention methods, and some were offered HIV drugs when they became available.
During the study, 349 HIV-infected partners were started on HIV drugs. Of the 103 people who became infected during the study, only one caught the virus after the infected partner started taking the drugs.
Donnell said the drugs cut the concentration of HIV in the blood to very low levels, which may make people less infectious. In people who took the drugs, the virus was suppressed to very low levels in nearly 70 percent of cases."

So - 1 (one) person was infected (out of 103 - not clear) and only 70% of cases reached UD. So I have no idea where 92% comes from. Most likely that one person's partner was not UD (since 30% of the group was not UD). So i'd rephrase the headline - 100% reduction in transmission for Undetectable Viral Load.
==========
Aug08 - Seroconversion
Mar10 - Diagnosis; cd4 690 - VL 19,000
Apr10 - cd4 600
May10 - VL 4,500
Jun10 - started Atripla ; VL 113
Jul 10 - UD vl, CD4 590
Aug 10 - UD, CD4 810, 52%
Nov 10 - UD, CD4 980

Offline Hellraiser

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Re: Study: Those on drugs 92 percent less likely to infect partner
« Reply #4 on: May 27, 2010, 08:19:20 AM »
You misunderstand...


3400 couples where one partner is hiv positive.

103 of the negative partners became infected.

349 of the positive partners were STARTED on drugs during the study.

Of the 103 infections only 1 person was infected after their partner started taking drugs.

70% of the people on ARVs (no idea how many of the total couples were on drugs before the study began) had an Undetectable viral load.

There are too many numbers and unknowns for me to figure out which hat they pulled the 92% reduction rate out of.  There will most likely never be a 100% number given for infectious of anyone who is HIV+ as in the science community there is usually at least a little wiggle room given for doubt.  It does bode well though that perhaps if a link can be made between meds and lowered transmission the meds will be more widely available at a reasonable cost.

Offline Boze

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Re: Study: Those on drugs 92 percent less likely to infect partner
« Reply #5 on: May 27, 2010, 08:29:33 AM »

349 of the positive partners were STARTED on drugs during the study.

Of the 103 infections only 1 person was infected after their partner started taking drugs.


So sounds like 1 transmission out of 349 couples on ARV?

I remember Dr. Gallant stating that there has not been a known case of UD person transmitting (http://www.google.co.uk/search?sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8&q=dr.+gallant+ud+infect). So this 92% headline actually bothers me as it implies an 8% risk.
==========
Aug08 - Seroconversion
Mar10 - Diagnosis; cd4 690 - VL 19,000
Apr10 - cd4 600
May10 - VL 4,500
Jun10 - started Atripla ; VL 113
Jul 10 - UD vl, CD4 590
Aug 10 - UD, CD4 810, 52%
Nov 10 - UD, CD4 980

Offline Hellraiser

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Re: Study: Those on drugs 92 percent less likely to infect partner
« Reply #6 on: May 27, 2010, 08:39:35 AM »
So sounds like 1 transmission out of 349 couples on ARV?

I remember Dr. Gallant stating that there has not been a known case of UD person transmitting (http://www.google.co.uk/search?sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8&q=dr.+gallant+ud+infect). So this 92% headline actually bothers me as it implies an 8% risk.

I'm guessing it's the number of transmissions that occured amongst the 3400 who were on ARVs is the 8% number, there is no mention of viral load as a mitigating circumstance though aside from the 70% number.  1 out of 349 is lower than 1% though obviously.

Offline Boze

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Re: Study: Those on drugs 92 percent less likely to infect partner
« Reply #7 on: May 27, 2010, 08:46:01 AM »
I'm guessing it's the number of transmissions that occured amongst the 3400 who were on ARVs is the 8% number, there is no mention of viral load as a mitigating circumstance though aside from the 70% number.  1 out of 349 is lower than 1% though obviously.

So retarded journalism basically.
==========
Aug08 - Seroconversion
Mar10 - Diagnosis; cd4 690 - VL 19,000
Apr10 - cd4 600
May10 - VL 4,500
Jun10 - started Atripla ; VL 113
Jul 10 - UD vl, CD4 590
Aug 10 - UD, CD4 810, 52%
Nov 10 - UD, CD4 980

Offline Hellraiser

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Re: Study: Those on drugs 92 percent less likely to infect partner
« Reply #8 on: May 27, 2010, 08:51:35 AM »
So retarded journalism basically.

They are being very very vague with the details, I'm not certain if it's on purpose or they just felt they gave us enough information.

Offline Boze

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Re: Study: Those on drugs 92 percent less likely to infect partner
« Reply #9 on: May 27, 2010, 08:52:26 AM »
They are being very very vague with the details, I'm not certain if it's on purpose or they just felt they gave us enough information.

True - but even going by the details provided 8% makes no sense.
==========
Aug08 - Seroconversion
Mar10 - Diagnosis; cd4 690 - VL 19,000
Apr10 - cd4 600
May10 - VL 4,500
Jun10 - started Atripla ; VL 113
Jul 10 - UD vl, CD4 590
Aug 10 - UD, CD4 810, 52%
Nov 10 - UD, CD4 980

Offline Hellraiser

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Re: Study: Those on drugs 92 percent less likely to infect partner
« Reply #10 on: May 27, 2010, 08:53:47 AM »
True - but even going by the details provided 8% makes no sense.

8% while one partner was utilizing ARVs not while one partner was on ARVs and undetectable.

Offline Boze

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Re: Study: Those on drugs 92 percent less likely to infect partner
« Reply #11 on: May 27, 2010, 08:56:22 AM »
8% while one partner was utilizing ARVs not while one partner was on ARVs and undetectable.

What is the nominator / denominator to get 8%?

I understood that "Of the 103 infections only 1 person was infected after their partner started taking drugs."
==========
Aug08 - Seroconversion
Mar10 - Diagnosis; cd4 690 - VL 19,000
Apr10 - cd4 600
May10 - VL 4,500
Jun10 - started Atripla ; VL 113
Jul 10 - UD vl, CD4 590
Aug 10 - UD, CD4 810, 52%
Nov 10 - UD, CD4 980

Offline Hellraiser

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Re: Study: Those on drugs 92 percent less likely to infect partner
« Reply #12 on: May 27, 2010, 08:58:17 AM »
What is the nominator / denominator to get 8%?

I understood that "Of the 103 infections only 1 person was infected after their partner started taking drugs."

They do not tell us how many of the epople in the study were on ARVs only how many began ARVs once the study commenced. So there may have been a number of these couples on ARVs before the study began or none at all.

Offline Boze

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Re: Study: Those on drugs 92 percent less likely to infect partner
« Reply #13 on: May 27, 2010, 09:02:39 AM »
They do not tell us how many of the epople in the study were on ARVs only how many began ARVs once the study commenced. So there may have been a number of these couples on ARVs before the study began or none at all.

Ahh, I see, thank you.

It gives me great pleasure to find myself in agreement (on unrelated topics) with someone who sees things more clearly than I do :)
==========
Aug08 - Seroconversion
Mar10 - Diagnosis; cd4 690 - VL 19,000
Apr10 - cd4 600
May10 - VL 4,500
Jun10 - started Atripla ; VL 113
Jul 10 - UD vl, CD4 590
Aug 10 - UD, CD4 810, 52%
Nov 10 - UD, CD4 980

Offline Assurbanipal

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  • Taking a forums break, still see PM's
Re: Study: Those on drugs 92 percent less likely to infect partner
« Reply #14 on: May 27, 2010, 01:28:50 PM »
Just looking at the numbers above

3400 - 349 = 3051 , presumably the number not on ARV's

103 partner infections, 1 of which is was infected by a partner on ARV's

102/3051 = 3.34% of partners infected by those not on ARV's

1/349 = 0.29% of partners infected by those on ARV's

.29/3.34 = 8.5% hence only 8.5% as infectious as those not on ARV's -- pretty close to a 92% reduction in infectiousness

One assumes (hopes) that the numbers are weighted by duration on meds as well...


*Edit -- accidentally posted while still typing
« Last Edit: May 27, 2010, 01:30:52 PM by Assurbanipal »
5/06 VL 1M+, CD4 22, 5% , pneumonia, thrush -- O2 support 2 months, 6/06 +Kaletra/Truvada
9/06 VL 3959 CD4 297 13.5% 12/06 VL <400 CD4 350 15.2% +Pravachol
2007 VL<400, 70, 50 CD4 408-729 16.0% -19.7%
2008 VL UD CD4 468 - 538 16.7% - 24.6% Osteoporosis 11/08 doubled Pravachol, +Calcium/D
02/09 VL 100 CD4 616 23.7% 03/09 VL 130 5/09 VL 100 CD4 540 28.4% +Actonel (osteoporosis) 7/09 VL 130
8/09  new regimen Isentress/Epzicom 9/09 VL UD CD4 621 32.7% 11/09 VL UD CD4 607 26.4% swap Isentress for Prezista/Norvir 12/09 (liver and muscle issues) VL 50
2010 VL UD CD4 573-680 26.1% - 30.9% 12/10 VL 20
2011 VL UD-20 CD4 568-673 24.7%-30.6%
2012 VL UD swap Prezista/Norvir for Reyataz drop statin CD4 768-828 26.7%-30.7%

Offline Boze

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Re: Study: Those on drugs 92 percent less likely to infect partner
« Reply #15 on: May 27, 2010, 01:40:04 PM »
Excellent work, Assur!

But then it raises the question - did non-ARV couples use condoms?

"All of the couples were given counseling on HIV prevention methods, and some were offered HIV drugs when they became available." It sounds like they had to tell people to use protection.

However once on meds people might stop using condoms? The reason I am suspicious is that 3.4% transmission risk sounds incredibly low.
==========
Aug08 - Seroconversion
Mar10 - Diagnosis; cd4 690 - VL 19,000
Apr10 - cd4 600
May10 - VL 4,500
Jun10 - started Atripla ; VL 113
Jul 10 - UD vl, CD4 590
Aug 10 - UD, CD4 810, 52%
Nov 10 - UD, CD4 980

Offline Assurbanipal

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Re: Study: Those on drugs 92 percent less likely to infect partner
« Reply #16 on: May 27, 2010, 01:51:01 PM »
Someone who read the study said:

All of the couples were given counseling on HIV prevention methods,...

 ;)

5/06 VL 1M+, CD4 22, 5% , pneumonia, thrush -- O2 support 2 months, 6/06 +Kaletra/Truvada
9/06 VL 3959 CD4 297 13.5% 12/06 VL <400 CD4 350 15.2% +Pravachol
2007 VL<400, 70, 50 CD4 408-729 16.0% -19.7%
2008 VL UD CD4 468 - 538 16.7% - 24.6% Osteoporosis 11/08 doubled Pravachol, +Calcium/D
02/09 VL 100 CD4 616 23.7% 03/09 VL 130 5/09 VL 100 CD4 540 28.4% +Actonel (osteoporosis) 7/09 VL 130
8/09  new regimen Isentress/Epzicom 9/09 VL UD CD4 621 32.7% 11/09 VL UD CD4 607 26.4% swap Isentress for Prezista/Norvir 12/09 (liver and muscle issues) VL 50
2010 VL UD CD4 573-680 26.1% - 30.9% 12/10 VL 20
2011 VL UD-20 CD4 568-673 24.7%-30.6%
2012 VL UD swap Prezista/Norvir for Reyataz drop statin CD4 768-828 26.7%-30.7%

Offline Cerrid

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  • only as good as your last haircut
Re: Study: Those on drugs 92 percent less likely to infect partner
« Reply #17 on: May 27, 2010, 02:10:10 PM »
Quote
Of the 103 people who became infected during the study, only one caught the virus after the infected partner started taking the drugs.

That's a pretty good result on the basis that they apparently did not take into account the VL, the effectiveness of the drugs, the compliance, the presence or absence of other STDs, the sexual activity with the same or other partners, or the positioning of the partners - all factors which play a role in the transmittability.
"Boredom is always counterrevolutionary. Always." (Guy Debord)

Offline tednlou2

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Re: Study: Those on drugs 92 percent less likely to infect partner
« Reply #18 on: May 28, 2010, 03:57:32 AM »
This is why I love you guys.  Most of you are able to read this stuff and make sense of it.  I read many of these studies and get a headache.  I have to read, re-read, and read again.  Even then, I often can't make sense of it.  I think people who are good and math are able to read these things better.  I sucked at math. 


 


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