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Author Topic: What's Your Electoral College Projection  (Read 3171 times)

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Offline woodshere

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What's Your Electoral College Projection
« on: November 03, 2008, 11:50:39 AM »
Well after almost 2 years of threads about this election, some silly and some rather contentious, the verdict will be known tomorrow night..... let's hope.  So what's your projection?  To help you can go here:   http://news.yahoo.com/election/2008/dashboard

Mine is:  Obama 375/McCain 163

I was a little worried last week.  But this morning after learning that 30% of the country has already voted and that a large majority of that number are democrats, I think Obama has a huge lead, especially in some of those battleground states where he is leading in popular opinion polls, that McCain will just not be able to overcome.
"Let us give pubicity to HV/AIDS and not hide it..." "One of the things destroying people with AIDS is the stigma we attach to it."   Nelson Mandela

Online Miss Philicia

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Re: What's Your Electoral College Projection
« Reply #1 on: November 03, 2008, 11:56:10 AM »
I will defer to Larry Sabato at the University of Virginia's Center for Politics:

http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/article.php?id=LJS2008103001

Polling has seemed to hold steady in these last days, and he will release one final projection this afternoon I think, but right now it's Obama - 364 and McCain -174... a blowout.

Gallup's latest poll internals also showed Obama with the highest favorable ratings of any presidential candidate during the past 16 years.
"Iíve slept with enough men to know that Iím not gay"

Offline Cliff

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Re: What's Your Electoral College Projection
« Reply #2 on: November 03, 2008, 02:51:02 PM »
I think Obama will lose NC and MO but will pick up VA, Ohio, NM and CO, winning with 335.  But I guess that all depends on how he does in IN. If he wins or even comes close to winning there, then it will be a blowout of 360+....if he loses badly, then a huge victory is unlikely. 

IN closes first?

Offline Robert

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Re: What's Your Electoral College Projection
« Reply #3 on: November 03, 2008, 03:24:37 PM »
I think Obama will pick up MO and IND. And also NC. VT.  And MD and DC. And for good measure, GA. In other words any state that is a battleground or a tie and I'm throwing in GA because of ATLQ.

I'm not sure of my math but I think that comes out to
Obama:  386
Mccain:  113.

Now, if Proposition 8 here in CA would be as decisive. Right now it's a tie...like 49% v. 49%. 

robt
..........

Online Miss Philicia

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Re: What's Your Electoral College Projection
« Reply #4 on: November 03, 2008, 03:40:49 PM »
I've been getting Rev. Wright advertisements about every 30 min. here the past 3 days.

However I'm also starting to consider that there's such a lack of enthusiasm on the Republican side (McCain's first rally today in Florida only attracted ~1,100 people in a location that Bush drew 15,000 four years ago) that many people polled as going to vote for McCain may, in fact, stay at home to some degree -- especially if they encounter bad weather and/or long lines.  Those numbers are a stunning contrast.
« Last Edit: November 03, 2008, 04:08:18 PM by philly267 »
"Iíve slept with enough men to know that Iím not gay"

Offline Dachshund

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Re: What's Your Electoral College Projection
« Reply #5 on: November 03, 2008, 04:17:01 PM »



                                         340

Offline woodshere

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Re: What's Your Electoral College Projection
« Reply #6 on: November 03, 2008, 04:25:56 PM »


                                         340


But for who..... :) :D :D ::) :) ;) ;)
"Let us give pubicity to HV/AIDS and not hide it..." "One of the things destroying people with AIDS is the stigma we attach to it."   Nelson Mandela

Offline atlq

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Re: What's Your Electoral College Projection
« Reply #7 on: November 03, 2008, 05:08:10 PM »
Obama rolls... Nevada, Colorado,  North Carolina and Virginia flip from red to blue. McCain's effort in PA fails. ....Georgia?....it all depends: were those large numbers of African Americans who voted early last week new voters or simply voters who  will be balanced out by the outer suburbs on Tues? My sense is that it is the former: in a Democratic  election wave Obama squeaks through -

Obama 391, McCain 150 ish......
ďKeep up the good work....   And God bless you.Ē
  --  Sarah Palin, to members of the Alaskan Independence Party, 2008

Online Miss Philicia

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Re: What's Your Electoral College Projection
« Reply #8 on: November 03, 2008, 05:47:48 PM »
I'll have what she's eating.
"Iíve slept with enough men to know that Iím not gay"

Offline Robert

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Re: What's Your Electoral College Projection
« Reply #9 on: November 03, 2008, 08:11:36 PM »

I'll have what she's eating.

I'll drink to that.

robt
..........

Offline randym431

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Re: What's Your Electoral College Projection
« Reply #10 on: November 03, 2008, 08:29:00 PM »
I dont know the final numbers.
But I have a prediction.
When the polls close, watch for a southern solid red state,
not thought to be in play in any way, to go Obama.
Either Kentucky or Tennessee.
The media will be shocked. And that will be the writing on the wall for Mccain.
« Last Edit: November 03, 2008, 10:10:35 PM by randym431 »

Offline Assurbanipal

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Re: What's Your Electoral College Projection
« Reply #11 on: November 03, 2008, 09:24:39 PM »
I'll go for 378 (throwing in Montana as blue)

Been spending most days the last week and a half in Pennsylvania's Lehigh valley volunteering out of the Bethlehem office ... the last few days the number of out of state volunteers (like me) has to be in the 100's for just that one office.  Today we were distributing door hangers with poling locations -- we kept running into the union folks who were distributing flyers -- the McCain folks don't appear to be much in evidence on the ground  -- and there were more volunteers than packets to be distributed. :)

P.S. to you Manhattanites out there -- the LeHigh valley is via the Holland tunnel (hint hint)

Vote for Obama
5/06 VL 1M+, CD4 22, 5% , pneumonia, thrush -- O2 support 2 months, 6/06 +Kaletra/Truvada
9/06 VL 3959 CD4 297 13.5% 12/06 VL <400 CD4 350 15.2% +Pravachol
2007 VL<400, 70, 50 CD4 408-729 16.0% -19.7%
2008 VL UD CD4 468 - 538 16.7% - 24.6% Osteoporosis 11/08 doubled Pravachol, +Calcium/D
02/09 VL 100 CD4 616 23.7% 03/09 VL 130 5/09 VL 100 CD4 540 28.4% +Actonel (osteoporosis) 7/09 VL 130
8/09  new regimen Isentress/Epzicom 9/09 VL UD CD4 621 32.7% 11/09 VL UD CD4 607 26.4% swap Isentress for Prezista/Norvir 12/09 (liver and muscle issues) VL 50
2010 VL UD CD4 573-680 26.1% - 30.9% 12/10 VL 20
2011 VL UD-20 CD4 568-673 24.7%-30.6%
2012 VL UD swap Prezista/Norvir for Reyataz drop statin CD4 768-828 26.7%-30.7%

Offline Peter Staley

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Re: What's Your Electoral College Projection
« Reply #12 on: November 03, 2008, 09:28:36 PM »
I've attached my prediction map.  An Obama blow-out, with 378.

edited to add:  Assurbanipal.. we posted at the same time, and with the same number!

[attachment deleted by admin]
« Last Edit: November 03, 2008, 09:31:11 PM by Peter Staley »

Offline Assurbanipal

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Re: What's Your Electoral College Projection
« Reply #13 on: November 03, 2008, 09:49:24 PM »
I've attached my prediction map.  An Obama blow-out, with 378.

edited to add:  Assurbanipal.. we posted at the same time, and with the same number!

If we hit I'll buy you a drink!
5/06 VL 1M+, CD4 22, 5% , pneumonia, thrush -- O2 support 2 months, 6/06 +Kaletra/Truvada
9/06 VL 3959 CD4 297 13.5% 12/06 VL <400 CD4 350 15.2% +Pravachol
2007 VL<400, 70, 50 CD4 408-729 16.0% -19.7%
2008 VL UD CD4 468 - 538 16.7% - 24.6% Osteoporosis 11/08 doubled Pravachol, +Calcium/D
02/09 VL 100 CD4 616 23.7% 03/09 VL 130 5/09 VL 100 CD4 540 28.4% +Actonel (osteoporosis) 7/09 VL 130
8/09  new regimen Isentress/Epzicom 9/09 VL UD CD4 621 32.7% 11/09 VL UD CD4 607 26.4% swap Isentress for Prezista/Norvir 12/09 (liver and muscle issues) VL 50
2010 VL UD CD4 573-680 26.1% - 30.9% 12/10 VL 20
2011 VL UD-20 CD4 568-673 24.7%-30.6%
2012 VL UD swap Prezista/Norvir for Reyataz drop statin CD4 768-828 26.7%-30.7%

Offline randym431

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Re: What's Your Electoral College Projection
« Reply #14 on: November 03, 2008, 10:14:29 PM »
Another weird quirky thing I've noticed in elections, is that states love to be on the winning side.
So even if a state is for Mccain, and the strong trend if going Obama, many will want to vote for
the likely winner.

Online Miss Philicia

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Re: What's Your Electoral College Projection
« Reply #15 on: November 04, 2008, 12:44:52 AM »
This should cheer everyone up:

Karl Rove's Electoral College projection map.
"Iíve slept with enough men to know that Iím not gay"

Offline Peter Staley

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Re: What's Your Electoral College Projection
« Reply #16 on: November 05, 2008, 12:08:05 PM »
NBC is calling Missouri for McCain (sorry Karl), leaving only NC undecided, although Obama holds a lead at this point.  Assuming NC goes for Obama, his final count will be 364.

Assurbanipal and I were off by 14.  I guessed MO and ND wrong.

However, I nailed the popular vote spread -- see my blog posting from yesterday where I called it:
http://blogs.poz.com/peter/archives/2008/11/my_predictions.html

Online Miss Philicia

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Re: What's Your Electoral College Projection
« Reply #17 on: November 05, 2008, 12:21:09 PM »
364 huh?  That's what I had in my post.  As always, I win.
"Iíve slept with enough men to know that Iím not gay"

Offline thunter34

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Re: What's Your Electoral College Projection
« Reply #18 on: November 05, 2008, 12:22:13 PM »
It looks like Hal came the closest with 340.

EDIT: didn't see that newer counts listed 364.  God I hate it when phillicia gets to gloat.
AIDS isn't for sissies.

Online Miss Philicia

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Re: What's Your Electoral College Projection
« Reply #19 on: November 06, 2008, 01:19:40 PM »
God I hate it when phillicia gets to gloat.

Ah, but nobody ever said life was fair, Tina. I'm bigger and I'm faster. I will always beat you.
"Iíve slept with enough men to know that Iím not gay"

Offline Iggy

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Re: What's Your Electoral College Projection
« Reply #20 on: November 06, 2008, 01:46:20 PM »

Offline Assurbanipal

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Re: What's Your Electoral College Projection
« Reply #21 on: November 06, 2008, 08:33:01 PM »
NC has been called, but Missouri is still in the "too close to call" category on the NPR site (and that's what they said on the radio too).

Missouri is less than a 6,000 vote difference out of 2.8 million.

(I may owe Peter a drink yet   ;D )
5/06 VL 1M+, CD4 22, 5% , pneumonia, thrush -- O2 support 2 months, 6/06 +Kaletra/Truvada
9/06 VL 3959 CD4 297 13.5% 12/06 VL <400 CD4 350 15.2% +Pravachol
2007 VL<400, 70, 50 CD4 408-729 16.0% -19.7%
2008 VL UD CD4 468 - 538 16.7% - 24.6% Osteoporosis 11/08 doubled Pravachol, +Calcium/D
02/09 VL 100 CD4 616 23.7% 03/09 VL 130 5/09 VL 100 CD4 540 28.4% +Actonel (osteoporosis) 7/09 VL 130
8/09  new regimen Isentress/Epzicom 9/09 VL UD CD4 621 32.7% 11/09 VL UD CD4 607 26.4% swap Isentress for Prezista/Norvir 12/09 (liver and muscle issues) VL 50
2010 VL UD CD4 573-680 26.1% - 30.9% 12/10 VL 20
2011 VL UD-20 CD4 568-673 24.7%-30.6%
2012 VL UD swap Prezista/Norvir for Reyataz drop statin CD4 768-828 26.7%-30.7%

Offline woodshere

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Re: What's Your Electoral College Projection
« Reply #22 on: November 07, 2008, 08:10:27 AM »
Well I was only off by 6000 votes, damn MO.  Philly wins the prize, but in reality I guess we all do!!!
"Let us give pubicity to HV/AIDS and not hide it..." "One of the things destroying people with AIDS is the stigma we attach to it."   Nelson Mandela

Offline Dachshund

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Re: What's Your Electoral College Projection
« Reply #23 on: November 07, 2008, 08:22:02 AM »
364 huh?  That's what I had in my post.  As always, I win.

Oh please, if it wasn't for me you silly queers wouldn't have known who was running. Quit patting yourselves on the back for being able to read the sites I recommended to you bitches. 

I am your God of politics and you must kneel before me. :-*

How do you like Obama now Jake?

Aunty Democrat

p.s. lick my log cabin, ladies.
« Last Edit: November 07, 2008, 08:23:47 AM by Dachshund »

Offline GSOgymrat

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Re: What's Your Electoral College Projection
« Reply #24 on: November 07, 2008, 09:10:09 AM »

Online Miss Philicia

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Re: What's Your Electoral College Projection
« Reply #25 on: November 07, 2008, 06:58:25 PM »
http://www.kptm.com/Global/story.asp?S=9313524&nav=menu606_2

Obama picks up one electoral vote in Nebraska

Quote
Obama Wins Omaha Electoral Vote
Posted: Nov 7, 2008 05:32 PM

OMAHA (KPTM) - Douglas County election commissioner Dave Phipps confirms to KPTM FOX 42 News that President-elect Barack Obama has won Nebraska's second district electoral vote.

Arizona Senator John McCain finished ahead in the intial vote tally on November 4th, but after provisional votes were tallied, Obama moved ahead.

This is the first time a Nebraska electoral vote has actually split to another candidate.

It also marks the first time in 40 years that a Democrat has won any Nebraska electoral votes.
"Iíve slept with enough men to know that Iím not gay"

Offline Peter Staley

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Re: What's Your Electoral College Projection
« Reply #26 on: November 07, 2008, 09:49:44 PM »
So it looks like his final count will be 365.  No one guessed this number, but Philicia came closest.  I bow down to her.

 :-*

 


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