Quantcast

Subscribe to:
POZ magazine
Newsletters
Join POZ: Facebook MySpace Twitter Pinterest
Tumblr Google+ Flickr Instagram
POZ Personals
Sign In / Join
Username:
Password:
Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
December 19, 2014, 05:34:11 AM

Login with username, password and session length


Members
Stats
  • Total Posts: 649849
  • Total Topics: 49599
  • Online Today: 167
  • Online Ever: 585
  • (January 07, 2014, 02:31:47 PM)
Users Online
Users: 4
Guests: 160
Total: 164

Welcome


Welcome to the POZ/AIDSmeds Community Forums, a round-the-clock discussion area for people with HIV/AIDS, their friends/family/caregivers, and others concerned about HIV/AIDS.  Click on the links below to browse our various forums; scroll down for a glance at the most recent posts; or join in the conversation yourself by registering on the left side of this page.

Privacy Warning:  Please realize that these forums are open to all, and are fully searchable via Google and other search engines. If you are HIV positive and disclose this in our forums, then it is almost the same thing as telling the whole world (or at least the World Wide Web). If this concerns you, then do not use a username or avatar that are self-identifying in any way. We do not allow the deletion of anything you post in these forums, so think before you post.

  • The information shared in these forums, by moderators and members, is designed to complement, not replace, the relationship between an individual and his/her own physician.

  • All members of these forums are, by default, not considered to be licensed medical providers. If otherwise, users must clearly define themselves as such.

  • Forums members must behave at all times with respect and honesty. Posting guidelines, including time-out and banning policies, have been established by the moderators of these forums. Click here for “Am I Infected?” posting guidelines. Click here for posting guidelines pertaining to all other POZ/AIDSmeds community forums.

  • We ask all forums members to provide references for health/medical/scientific information they provide, when it is not a personal experience being discussed. Please provide hyperlinks with full URLs or full citations of published works not available via the Internet. Additionally, all forums members must post information which are true and correct to their knowledge.

  • Product advertisement—including links; banners; editorial content; and clinical trial, study or survey participation—is strictly prohibited by forums members unless permission has been secured from POZ.

To change forums navigation language settings, click here (members only), Register now

Para cambiar sus preferencias de los foros en español, haz clic aquí (sólo miembros), Regístrate ahora

Finished Reading This? You can collapse this or any other box on this page by clicking the symbol in each box.

Author Topic: McCain vs Obama - the Electoral College Map  (Read 4502 times)

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

Offline woodshere

  • Member
  • Posts: 1,477
  • ain't no shame in my game
McCain vs Obama - the Electoral College Map
« on: September 15, 2008, 03:04:23 PM »
National polls while important don't matter nearly as much as state polling and its effect on the Electoral College.  NPR has a map I check on a regular basis.  For the past month or so it has been Obama - 210, McCain 200 with 270 needed to win.  Today I checked much to my horror this is what I found:

http://www.npr.org/news/specials/election2008/2008-election-map.html#/president-nprOvM/


As each day passes I am becoming more and more concerned that our future Vice-president's foreign policy will be based upon a trip to visit Alaska National Guard troops stationed in Kuwait and she can see Russia from her state.
"Let us give pubicity to HV/AIDS and not hide it..." "One of the things destroying people with AIDS is the stigma we attach to it."   Nelson Mandela

Offline Miss Philicia

  • Member
  • Posts: 24,511
  • celebrity poster, faker & poser
Re: McCain vs Obama - the Electoral College Map
« Reply #1 on: September 15, 2008, 03:23:05 PM »
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/09/15/mccains-crowd-numbers-plu_n_126490.html

That makes me worry less.  People need to calm down about this post-GOP convention bounce.  It's only due to Palin, not McCain -- and it's feasibly reversible in that sense.  Palin's unfavorability ratings have begun to rise as voters begin to slowly digest the facts.  There aren't many people (outside of "the base") who will be willing to support someone who is into banning library books, charges per diems for working at home, repeatedly lies about things that have been repeatedly debunked in the media, and once charged women for rape kits because she believed the abortifacient drugs conflicted with her religious beliefs.
"I’ve slept with enough men to know that I’m not gay"

Offline Dachshund

  • Member
  • Posts: 5,999
Re: McCain vs Obama - the Electoral College Map
« Reply #2 on: September 15, 2008, 03:30:07 PM »
National polls while important don't matter nearly as much as state polling and its effect on the Electoral College.  NPR has a map I check on a regular basis.  For the past month or so it has been Obama - 210, McCain 200 with 270 needed to win.  Today I checked much to my horror this is what I found:

http://www.npr.org/news/specials/election2008/2008-election-map.html#/president-nprOvM/


As each day passes I am becoming more and more concerned that our future Vice-president's foreign policy will be based upon a trip to visit Alaska National Guard troops stationed in Kuwait and she can see Russia from her state.

Don't worry puddin' we're going to win. PA ain't no tossup. I could link you to several polling sites showing Obama with a slight lead in the electoral college.

Offline woodshere

  • Member
  • Posts: 1,477
  • ain't no shame in my game
Re: McCain vs Obama - the Electoral College Map
« Reply #3 on: September 15, 2008, 03:32:32 PM »
Don't worry puddin' we're going to win. PA ain't no tossup. I could link you to several polling sites showing Obama with a slight lead in the electoral college.

I hope you and philly are right, perhaps I am underestimating the voting public.
"Let us give pubicity to HV/AIDS and not hide it..." "One of the things destroying people with AIDS is the stigma we attach to it."   Nelson Mandela

Offline Miss Philicia

  • Member
  • Posts: 24,511
  • celebrity poster, faker & poser
Re: McCain vs Obama - the Electoral College Map
« Reply #4 on: September 15, 2008, 03:54:39 PM »
Actually recent polling has had PA getting tighter, and I do think there is a potential here for things being horribly more tight than imagined, though I still think it will be pulled off.  PA is a strange state.  Looks on a map like it would be really liberal, but that's actually on the case in the area where I live -- the rest of the state we call Pennsyltucky. :)

But you know that things can quickly change in the political landscape and we'll have to see how this economic crisis plays out -- Phil Gramm's hand are all over it, and he was McCain's chief advisor in this area.

http://www.motherjones.com/mojoblog/archives/2008/09/9718_mccain_lehman_crisis_gramm.html
« Last Edit: September 15, 2008, 03:56:27 PM by philly267 »
"I’ve slept with enough men to know that I’m not gay"

Offline Dachshund

  • Member
  • Posts: 5,999
Re: McCain vs Obama - the Electoral College Map
« Reply #5 on: September 15, 2008, 04:04:29 PM »
Actually recent polling has had PA getting tighter, and I do think there is a potential here for things being horribly more tight than imagined, though I still think it will be pulled off.  PA is a strange state.  Looks on a map like it would be really liberal, but that's actually on the case in the area where I live -- the rest of the state we call Pennsyltucky. :)


Hush, you'll give the Woods the vapors. He's from Kentucky you know. Never fear Woods, PA will stay blue, just like my balls. :P

Offline Peter Staley

  • Member
  • Posts: 1,337
  • Founder & Advisory Editor, AIDSmeds.com
    • AIDSmeds.com
Re: McCain vs Obama - the Electoral College Map
« Reply #6 on: September 15, 2008, 04:32:05 PM »
Finally, a great, hard-hitting ad from the Obama side:

http://link.brightcove.com/services/link/bcpid1185304443/bctid1786848892

Send this link to all your friends.

Offline HIV+Me

  • Member
  • Posts: 78
    • HIV + Me
Re: McCain vs Obama - the Electoral College Map
« Reply #7 on: September 15, 2008, 05:07:20 PM »
A lot of TV's tallking heads used to say while Georgia (my state) would normally be solidly McCain's, the Libertarian (yeah, right) Bob Barr could pull away enough Repubgnants away so Obama might have a chance.  I haven't heard them mention this as much since Plain appeared on the ticket, but they never talk about our state as much.  Trust me, there are whole sections of this state who genuflect at the altar of Barr, and unlike other third parties, he will be on the actual ballot.  (Nader, for example, won't be.)

Offline Miss Philicia

  • Member
  • Posts: 24,511
  • celebrity poster, faker & poser
Re: McCain vs Obama - the Electoral College Map
« Reply #8 on: September 15, 2008, 05:13:51 PM »
Spending money in Georgia is a waste and mistake.  I'd spend MUCH more money in Virginia and NC before going down there.

It's like a Republican spending money in New York... silly.
"I’ve slept with enough men to know that I’m not gay"

Offline atlq

  • Member
  • Posts: 518
Re: McCain vs Obama - the Electoral College Map
« Reply #9 on: September 15, 2008, 05:25:54 PM »
Finally, a great, hard-hitting ad from the Obama side:

http://link.brightcove.com/services/link/bcpid1185304443/bctid1786848892

Send this link to all your friends.

One of the truest adages in politics is "If you're explaining, you're losing". Since July the McCain campaign has been shrewdly setting the debate frame (Drill Now, Pay Less!, The Surge is Working!, Republicans Love Women! Obama wants to have National Sex Ed claasses for your kindegartners....)

Meanwhiile the Obama camps been running ads saying "not true" or "how sleazy" instead of ads that would put the McCain camp on its heels, forcing it to do some explaining (ads with themes such as "McCain is technologically illiterate in an era when the US is fighting to maintain its shrinking edge in IT emoployment, John McCain and his econ advisors feel that Americans are just being whiners and should suck it up as they lose their jobs and homes, while the McCAin/Palin ticket argues for a continuation of the same diastorous lassez- faire policies that have lead us to the point, Sarah Palin is a shill for the oil industry...)

I feel that the zeigeist will still be too much for  the Repubs to overcome this time but the Obama folks are doing "too much explaining, and not enough blaming"....
“Keep up the good work....   And God bless you.”
  --  Sarah Palin, to members of the Alaskan Independence Party, 2008

Offline atlq

  • Member
  • Posts: 518
Re: McCain vs Obama - the Electoral College Map
« Reply #10 on: September 15, 2008, 05:30:33 PM »
Spending money in Georgia is a waste and mistake.  I'd spend MUCH more money in Virginia and NC before going down there.

It's like a Republican spending money in New York... silly.

Nope....down 7 in the polls with a viable Senate candidate in Jim Martin (versus the horrid Saxby Chambliss), a few bucks in Georgia makes sense,as explaining the field that the Repubs have too defend.  We were told the the Obama campaign would change the electoral map...this is one a handful of places to do that...
“Keep up the good work....   And God bless you.”
  --  Sarah Palin, to members of the Alaskan Independence Party, 2008

Offline Assurbanipal

  • Member
  • Posts: 2,173
  • Taking a forums break, still see PM's
Re: McCain vs Obama - the Electoral College Map
« Reply #11 on: September 15, 2008, 06:32:36 PM »
Yahoo has a cool one too that shows the political market (betting) results as well as the polls
http://news.yahoo.com/election/2008/dashboard;_ylt=AjjKpDlg.EZzzfJpqFBdnUJh24cA
5/06 VL 1M+, CD4 22, 5% , pneumonia, thrush -- O2 support 2 months, 6/06 +Kaletra/Truvada
9/06 VL 3959 CD4 297 13.5% 12/06 VL <400 CD4 350 15.2% +Pravachol
2007 VL<400, 70, 50 CD4 408-729 16.0% -19.7%
2008 VL UD CD4 468 - 538 16.7% - 24.6% Osteoporosis 11/08 doubled Pravachol, +Calcium/D
02/09 VL 100 CD4 616 23.7% 03/09 VL 130 5/09 VL 100 CD4 540 28.4% +Actonel (osteoporosis) 7/09 VL 130
8/09  new regimen Isentress/Epzicom 9/09 VL UD CD4 621 32.7% 11/09 VL UD CD4 607 26.4% swap Isentress for Prezista/Norvir 12/09 (liver and muscle issues) VL 50
2010 VL UD CD4 573-680 26.1% - 30.9% 12/10 VL 20
2011 VL UD-20 CD4 568-673 24.7%-30.6%
2012 VL UD swap Prezista/Norvir for Reyataz drop statin CD4 768-828 26.7%-30.7%

Offline Miss Philicia

  • Member
  • Posts: 24,511
  • celebrity poster, faker & poser
Re: McCain vs Obama - the Electoral College Map
« Reply #12 on: September 15, 2008, 06:44:37 PM »
link

***BREAKING***

September 15, 2008
CNN POLL OF POLLS: McCain's convention bounce gone
Posted: 05:50 PM ET

McCain is dead even with Obama in CNN's poll of polls.

(CNN) – The bounce John McCain received in national opinion polls following his party's convention and the selection of Sarah Palin to the GOP presidential ticket appears to have evaporated, a new CNN poll of polls suggests.

In the latest CNN survey of several recent national polls, Obama and McCain are locked in a dead heat at 45 percent each with 10 percent who remain undecided with 50 days remaining until Election Day.

“When we average the latest national polls, it is increasingly clear that neither candidate has any serious momentum at the moment,” said CNN Senior Political Researcher Alan Silverleib. “The convention bounces have faded and left us with a dead heat. Even though we are now in the final stretch of this historic marathon campaign for the presidency, the White House is still genuinely up for grabs.”

CNN's latest poll of polls consists of three recent surveys: Newsweek (September 10-11), Gallup (September 12-14), and Diageo/Hotline (September 12-14). It does not have a sampling error.
"I’ve slept with enough men to know that I’m not gay"

Offline libvet

  • Member
  • Posts: 327
Re: McCain vs Obama - the Electoral College Map
« Reply #13 on: September 15, 2008, 06:56:15 PM »
Not to mention that the same companies that bring you the majority of polls have a vested interest in a tight race because it gets people to tune in.

I really have little faith in polling because of that.

Offline atlq

  • Member
  • Posts: 518
Re: McCain vs Obama - the Electoral College Map
« Reply #14 on: September 15, 2008, 07:46:48 PM »
For the most comprehensive polling/horserace data, I go here:

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/

Particularly note: Good stuff on the right hand side today about the Dems Senate outlook this fall
“Keep up the good work....   And God bless you.”
  --  Sarah Palin, to members of the Alaskan Independence Party, 2008

Offline GSOgymrat

  • Member
  • Posts: 5,052
  • HIV+ since 1993. INTJ
Re: McCain vs Obama - the Electoral College Map
« Reply #15 on: September 16, 2008, 11:03:58 AM »
This is off topic but talking about polls here is an interesting article by Scott Adams, creator of the cartoon Dilbert, on which candidate would be better for the economy in the long term. I was impressed that Adams took it upon himself to fund such a survey.

http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/09/16/dilbert.economy/index.html?eref=rss_topstories

Offline Dachshund

  • Member
  • Posts: 5,999
Re: McCain vs Obama - the Electoral College Map
« Reply #16 on: September 19, 2008, 09:32:06 AM »
National polls while important don't matter nearly as much as state polling and its effect on the Electoral College.  NPR has a map I check on a regular basis.  For the past month or so it has been Obama - 210, McCain 200 with 270 needed to win.  Today I checked much to my horror this is what I found:

http://www.npr.org/news/specials/election2008/2008-election-map.html#/president-nprOvM/


As each day passes I am becoming more and more concerned that our future Vice-president's foreign policy will be based upon a trip to visit Alaska National Guard troops stationed in Kuwait and she can see Russia from her state.

Here ya go Woods, get some sleep.

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/search/label/today%27s%20polls

Offline GSOgymrat

  • Member
  • Posts: 5,052
  • HIV+ since 1993. INTJ
Re: McCain vs Obama - the Electoral College Map
« Reply #17 on: September 21, 2008, 04:50:16 PM »

Offline atlq

  • Member
  • Posts: 518
Re: McCain vs Obama - the Electoral College Map
« Reply #18 on: September 21, 2008, 04:56:37 PM »
“Keep up the good work....   And God bless you.”
  --  Sarah Palin, to members of the Alaskan Independence Party, 2008

Offline atlq

  • Member
  • Posts: 518
Re: McCain vs Obama - the Electoral College Map
« Reply #19 on: October 09, 2008, 11:33:02 PM »
We could really use an Obama visit about now....we are that close to tipping:

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/10/9/43319/1832/703/624770
“Keep up the good work....   And God bless you.”
  --  Sarah Palin, to members of the Alaskan Independence Party, 2008

Offline Miss Philicia

  • Member
  • Posts: 24,511
  • celebrity poster, faker & poser
Re: McCain vs Obama - the Electoral College Map
« Reply #20 on: October 09, 2008, 11:46:52 PM »
Still don't see JAW-juh as a great way for him spend time.  But hey -- don't look now, but West Virginia (you know, the state where Obama was told he'd never come close) has been placed in the toss-up column on pollster.com

And they now have Pennsylvania as not just "lean" but "strong" Dem.  We were originally a battleground, and in fact Obama is doing four events here on Saturday. 

I don't want to jinx anything, but at this point it's getting to not "if" but "by how much" he wins, and what that does down ticket.  Ed Rollins, the eternal Republican party strategist, actually conceded tonight on CNN that Obama would win, and that Republicans could potentially lose TEN Senate races.
"I’ve slept with enough men to know that I’m not gay"

Offline atlq

  • Member
  • Posts: 518
Re: McCain vs Obama - the Electoral College Map
« Reply #21 on: October 10, 2008, 12:01:26 AM »


I don't want to jinx anything, but at this point it's getting to not "if" but "by how much" he wins, and what that does down ticket.  Ed Rollins, the eternal Republican party strategist, actually conceded tonight on CNN that Obama would win, and that Republicans could potentially lose TEN Senate races.

That's my point. We've got a Senate candidate here, Jim Martin; pro labor, pro ENDA, pro-choice who is now running 2 frickking points behind Saxby Chambliss, one of the most odious characters in the Senate. The voter registrations we having been running for Obama are having a huge effect. African American turnout as a percentage of total turnout in early voting is running at 40 (!) percent. This is the Senate seat that could make the difference between a pickup of 9 (beholding to Lieberman) or 10 (not beholding).....
“Keep up the good work....   And God bless you.”
  --  Sarah Palin, to members of the Alaskan Independence Party, 2008

Offline atlq

  • Member
  • Posts: 518
Re: McCain vs Obama - the Electoral College Map
« Reply #22 on: October 11, 2008, 08:13:24 PM »
“Keep up the good work....   And God bless you.”
  --  Sarah Palin, to members of the Alaskan Independence Party, 2008

Offline atlq

  • Member
  • Posts: 518
Re: McCain vs Obama - the Electoral College Map
« Reply #23 on: October 11, 2008, 09:19:33 PM »
“Keep up the good work....   And God bless you.”
  --  Sarah Palin, to members of the Alaskan Independence Party, 2008

Offline RapidRod

  • Member
  • Posts: 15,288
Re: McCain vs Obama - the Electoral College Map
« Reply #24 on: October 12, 2008, 12:14:39 AM »
We've see this turn totally around before. Don't count the chickens before they're hatched.

Offline atlq

  • Member
  • Posts: 518
Re: McCain vs Obama - the Electoral College Map
« Reply #25 on: October 12, 2008, 07:50:05 AM »
We've see this turn totally around before. Don't count the chickens before they're hatched.


Noted..... :)
“Keep up the good work....   And God bless you.”
  --  Sarah Palin, to members of the Alaskan Independence Party, 2008

Offline Miss Philicia

  • Member
  • Posts: 24,511
  • celebrity poster, faker & poser
Re: McCain vs Obama - the Electoral College Map
« Reply #26 on: October 12, 2008, 11:46:00 AM »
We've see this turn totally around before. 

Actually, in historical terms, it's only occurred once -- meaning turning around an 11 pt. lead 3 weeks out from the election (or so it was just noted on Meet the Press).  And that was Reagan, and clearly considering the comparisons Obama = Reagan, not McCain, in terms of dynamics.

The only way I see McCain gaining ANY leverage, is if an al Qaeda suitcase bomb goes off in Times Square.  Go read the internals of the latest Newsweek poll.  It's not just that Obama is 11 pts. ahead, but on the separate questions on issues he leads McCain by healthy double digits on every single issue save one (terrorism).  He even leads McCain on the Iraq war.

I just don't see it happening.
"I’ve slept with enough men to know that I’m not gay"

 


Terms of Membership for these forums
 

© 2014 Smart + Strong. All Rights Reserved.   terms of use and your privacy
Smart + Strong® is a registered trademark of CDM Publishing, LLC.