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Author Topic: Wall Street's nightmare goes nuclear  (Read 3509 times)

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Offline Dachshund

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Wall Street's nightmare goes nuclear
« on: September 15, 2008, 08:35:48 AM »
Baby needs a new pair of shoes, and Wall Street ain't really my cup of tea, but shouldn't we be worried? Isn't this proof of some need for regulation and oversight by the government. Isn't the taxpayer left holding the bag when these guys fold. I'm worried and I ain't even got a pot to piss in.

http://www.salon.com/tech/htww/?last_story=/tech/htww/2008/09/15/systemic_meltdown/

Offline atlq

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Re: Wall Street's nightmare goes nuclear
« Reply #1 on: September 15, 2008, 08:47:52 AM »
Isn't the taxpayer left holding the bag when these guys fold. I'm worried and I ain't even got a pot to piss in.

Yep, and you should be. There is a major liquidity crisis now in the US . Overall, banks do not have    access to enough capital, meaning they aren't lending. Lending is the life blood of the American economy.

Oil tradersdon't like what they see ahead, either. Oil dropped 6 dollars a barrel to 95 dollars yesterday, even though supply situation hasn't fundamentally changed. This means they think the U.S. economy is in for a bad time and that demand here will fall accordingly. Buckle down everyone, one last Bush era storm to ride out. Unfortunately its going to be the most dangerous yet.
“Keep up the good work....   And God bless you.”
  --  Sarah Palin, to members of the Alaskan Independence Party, 2008

Offline Cliff

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Re: Wall Street's nightmare goes nuclear
« Reply #2 on: September 15, 2008, 08:55:26 AM »
The taxpayers are unlikely to suffer much from this.  Lehman's shareholders will take the hit, as their shares are now worthless.  Lehman's counterparties (companies it does business with) will take the hit as any payments owed to them are unlikely to be paid.  And any debt Lehman has issued is unlikely to be paid.  

The Treasury made is clear that they would not bail out Lehman or Merrill, which meant that if the other banks didn't both companies would go under.  I think that's the right thing to do.  Companies should not see the US taxpayers as payers of last resort.  This will only encourage excessive risk-taking.

I'm not sure more regulation is the answer.  Sometimes that can be counterproductive.

Offline emeraldize

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Re: Wall Street's nightmare goes nuclear
« Reply #3 on: September 15, 2008, 09:01:17 AM »
This was a helluva note to listen to this morning on the news. Thanks for your insight, Cliff.

Offline Dachshund

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Re: Wall Street's nightmare goes nuclear
« Reply #4 on: September 15, 2008, 09:06:47 AM »
This is all way above my paygrade, but it appears deregulation got us into this mess. Seems like the fox was guarding the chicken coop.

Offline atlq

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Re: Wall Street's nightmare goes nuclear
« Reply #5 on: September 15, 2008, 09:15:04 AM »
The taxpayers are unlikely to suffer much from this.  Lehman's shareholders will take the hit, as their shares are now worthless.  Lehman's counterparties (companies it does business with) will take the hit as any payments owed to them are unlikely to be paid.  And any debt Lehman has issued is unlikely to be paid.  

The Treasury made is clear that they would not bail out Lehman or Merrill, which meant that if the other banks didn't both companies would go under.  I think that's the right thing to do.  Companies should not see the US taxpayers as payers of last resort.  This will only encourage excessive risk-taking.

I'm not sure more regulation is the answer.  Sometimes that can be counterproductive.

I have to respectfully disagree, in part. While I agree that the Treasury is not going to ride to the rescue of these firms ( or any of the regionals that are also likely to fail in the coming months), the cumulative effect of the liquidity crisis means less business investment (i.e. hiring and purchasing), smaller payrolls and a housing market that is still going to be glutted with inventory.  Individuals who have gone into foreclosure are not going to to be able to return to the market and there are relatively few buyers who meet the 1980's and earlier standard of 10- 20% down on a fixed rate mortgage. The result: emptier neighborhoods, fewer homeowners paying property taxes for a service network that will have to expand. The Social Safety net will become strained (as if it isn't already) as the government faces a choice of higher taxes or more borrowing (on increasingly difficult terms).

I do agree with Cliff that the government needs to be selective in how it writes new federal regs for future Merrill's etc... but in hindsight, more regulation was definitely needed here...many of these firms knew that these mortgage based securities were bound to fail, and they kept bundling and selling them anyway....

Will the U.S. financial system weather this crisis? Of course, but it is going to look much different....
“Keep up the good work....   And God bless you.”
  --  Sarah Palin, to members of the Alaskan Independence Party, 2008

Offline Dachshund

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Re: Wall Street's nightmare goes nuclear
« Reply #6 on: September 15, 2008, 09:19:32 AM »

Offline Dachshund

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Re: Wall Street's nightmare goes nuclear
« Reply #7 on: September 15, 2008, 09:56:47 AM »

Offline Iggy

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Re: Wall Street's nightmare goes nuclear
« Reply #8 on: September 15, 2008, 02:20:13 PM »
Did anyone watched the press conference that Paulson just held?

Going by body language alone I felt more worried then not following his assurances


Offline Miss Philicia

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Re: Wall Street's nightmare goes nuclear
« Reply #9 on: September 15, 2008, 02:25:54 PM »
I've not seen anything so messy since the savings and loan scandal in the late eighties, and of course the Bush family had a lot of hands in that pot at the cost of $160 billion dollars (at 1989 rates) -- largely contributing to those huge budget deficits at the time, which Democrats later had to clean up.  But then again that's the routine lately with conservatives, but unfortunately the American voter has a very short memory.

IIRC McCain's Keating Five problems stemmed from the S&L crisis as well.

"Voodoo economics" anyone?
« Last Edit: September 15, 2008, 02:34:38 PM by philly267 »
"I’ve slept with enough men to know that I’m not gay"

Offline komnaes

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Re: Wall Street's nightmare goes nuclear
« Reply #10 on: September 16, 2008, 07:03:52 AM »
AIG may be next...

I have one policy with it.. really need to figure out what to do with it.. :-\
Aug 07 Diagnosed
Oct 07 CD4=446(19%) Feb 08 CD4=421(19%)
Jun 08 CD4=325(22%) Jul 08 CD4=301(18%)
Sep 08 CD4=257/VL=75,000 Oct 08 CD4=347(16%)
Dec 08 CD4=270(16%)
Jan 09 CD4=246(13%)/VL=10,000
Feb 09 CD4=233(15%)/VL=13,000
Started meds Sustiva/Epzicom
May 09 CD4=333(24%)/VL=650
Aug 09 CD4=346(24%)/VL=UD
Nov 09 CD4=437(26%)/VL=UD
Feb 10 CD4=471(31%)/VL=UD
June 10 CD4=517 (28%)/VL=UD
Sept 10 CD4=687 (31%)/VL=UD
Jan 11 CD4=557 (30%)/VL=UD
April 11 CD4=569 (32%)/VL=UD
Switched to Epizcom, Reyataz and Norvir
(Interrupted for 2 months with only Epizcom & Reyataz)
July 11 CD=520 (28%)/VL=UD
Oct 11 CD=771 (31%)/VL=UD(<30)
April 12 CD=609 (28%)/VL=UD(<20)
Aug 12 CD=657 (29%)/VL=UD(<20)
Dec 12 CD=532 (31%)/VL=UD(<20)
May 13 CD=567 (31%)/VL=UD(<20)
Jan 14 CD=521 (21%)/VL=UD(<50)

Offline J.R.E.

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  • Posts: 7,093
  • Joined Dec-2003 Living positive, since 1985.
Re: Wall Street's nightmare goes nuclear
« Reply #11 on: September 16, 2008, 07:55:49 AM »
Current Meds ; Viramune, Epzicom, 40mg of simvastatin, 12.5mg of Hydrochlorothiazide.
Metoprolol tartrate 25mg



http://forums.poz.com/index.php?topic=40802.0

http://forums.poz.com/index.php?topic=45159.0

http://forums.poz.com/index.php?topic=39722.msg495621;topicseen#msg495621

http://forums.poz.com/index.php?topic=46806.0

http://forums.poz.com/index.php?topic=39414.msg491701#msg491701


 In October of 2003, My t-cell count was 16, Viral load was over 500,000, Percentage at that time was 5%. I started my first  HAART regimen  on October 24th,03.

 As of 6/4/14,  t-cells are at 423, Viral load <40

 Current % is at 13% 

  
 62 years young.

Offline Cliff

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Re: Wall Street's nightmare goes nuclear
« Reply #12 on: September 17, 2008, 05:05:18 AM »
So the US government is now going to nationalise the larget insurance company in the world, AIG.  Probably a good thing, AIG is too large to fail.  All of our assets are insured by AIG, we were scrambling to figure out how many outstanding claims we have with AIG and who we would have to move our business to if AIG went under.  But no fear, the US taxpayers came to the rescue!!!   :-\

Offline allopathicholistic

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Re: Wall Street's nightmare goes nuclear
« Reply #13 on: September 17, 2008, 08:20:23 AM »
If America goes bankrupt, who's gonna bail US out!?  :P  :D

Offline Cliff

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Re: Wall Street's nightmare goes nuclear
« Reply #14 on: September 17, 2008, 08:31:39 AM »
Liechtenstein

sp
« Last Edit: September 17, 2008, 08:35:54 AM by Cliff »

Offline atlq

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  • Posts: 518
Re: Wall Street's nightmare goes nuclear
« Reply #15 on: September 17, 2008, 08:33:19 AM »
So the US government is now going to nationalise the larget insurance company in the world, AIG.  Probably a good thing, AIG is too large to fail.  All of our assets are insured by AIG, we were scrambling to figure out how many outstanding claims we have with AIG and who we would have to move our business to if AIG went under.  But no fear, the US taxpayers came to the rescue!!!   :-\


You are right Cliff, this was a good thing. The market simply wasn't going to come forward with a private bailout plan. We have to staunch (?) the bleeding here, and return some stability in the financial sector, so that those who are sitting on cash feel secure in loaning it again. The gvt got good terms for the loan (an 80% equity stake in the company), so the chances are at least even that the cash will come back to the taxpayers...
“Keep up the good work....   And God bless you.”
  --  Sarah Palin, to members of the Alaskan Independence Party, 2008

Offline Dachshund

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  • Posts: 5,941
Re: Wall Street's nightmare goes nuclear
« Reply #16 on: September 17, 2008, 11:08:00 AM »
So the US government is now going to nationalise the larget insurance company in the world, AIG.  Probably a good thing, AIG is too large to fail.  All of our assets are insured by AIG, we were scrambling to figure out how many outstanding claims we have with AIG and who we would have to move our business to if AIG went under.  But no fear, the US taxpayers came to the rescue!!!   :-\

Socialism I tell you, pure socialism. Next thing you know the Republicans will adopt national health care.

Offline Iggy

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Re: Wall Street's nightmare goes nuclear
« Reply #17 on: September 17, 2008, 11:10:38 AM »
If America goes bankrupt, who's gonna bail US out!?  :P  :D

You've not been keeping track of foreign purchases of U.S. Treasury bonds and debt.  China has been bailing us out for quite a while now.


Offline komnaes

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  • Posts: 1,893
Re: Wall Street's nightmare goes nuclear
« Reply #18 on: September 17, 2008, 11:21:08 AM »
You've not been keeping track of foreign purchases of U.S. Treasury bonds and debt.  China has been bailing us out for quite a while now.



Haha.. yeah.. we keep bailing you guys out so you can keep buying all the junk we produce... ;)

Which sort of reminds me of this story: "Two economists A and B walk down the street. A sees a piece of dog shit and says to B, 'If you eat it now, I will pay you $1 million'. Then B sees another, and says to A, 'If you eat that too, I will pay you $1 million as well'. They both eat the, er, shit, and since they don't have the cash in hand they just write a IOU to each other, which of course immediately cancel each other out. Then A says to B, 'You know, we have just contributed to $2 million of GDP'. Then B says, 'Oh, we could have contributed more if we create a market to trade that IOU'."..
« Last Edit: September 17, 2008, 11:23:18 AM by komnaes »
Aug 07 Diagnosed
Oct 07 CD4=446(19%) Feb 08 CD4=421(19%)
Jun 08 CD4=325(22%) Jul 08 CD4=301(18%)
Sep 08 CD4=257/VL=75,000 Oct 08 CD4=347(16%)
Dec 08 CD4=270(16%)
Jan 09 CD4=246(13%)/VL=10,000
Feb 09 CD4=233(15%)/VL=13,000
Started meds Sustiva/Epzicom
May 09 CD4=333(24%)/VL=650
Aug 09 CD4=346(24%)/VL=UD
Nov 09 CD4=437(26%)/VL=UD
Feb 10 CD4=471(31%)/VL=UD
June 10 CD4=517 (28%)/VL=UD
Sept 10 CD4=687 (31%)/VL=UD
Jan 11 CD4=557 (30%)/VL=UD
April 11 CD4=569 (32%)/VL=UD
Switched to Epizcom, Reyataz and Norvir
(Interrupted for 2 months with only Epizcom & Reyataz)
July 11 CD=520 (28%)/VL=UD
Oct 11 CD=771 (31%)/VL=UD(<30)
April 12 CD=609 (28%)/VL=UD(<20)
Aug 12 CD=657 (29%)/VL=UD(<20)
Dec 12 CD=532 (31%)/VL=UD(<20)
May 13 CD=567 (31%)/VL=UD(<20)
Jan 14 CD=521 (21%)/VL=UD(<50)

Offline Dachshund

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Re: Wall Street's nightmare goes nuclear
« Reply #19 on: September 17, 2008, 11:48:00 AM »

You are right Cliff, this was a good thing. The market simply wasn't going to come forward with a private bailout plan. We have to staunch (?) the bleeding here, and return some stability in the financial sector, so that those who are sitting on cash feel secure in loaning it again. The gvt got good terms for the loan (an 80% equity stake in the company), so the chances are at least even that the cash will come back to the taxpayers...

Now that the People own a major insurance company, it's fair to ask how the People's Insurance Company, along with the People's Mortgage Companies and the People's Investment Banks, will benefit the People who Own them. Can we expect lower premiums, equity sharing, and corporate perks for our hundreds of billions of dollars? Should we start checking our mailbox for dividend checks? Who gets paid first, claimants, bondholders, stockholders, or we the new taxpayer owners? We the Owners, want to know, and the Union of Socialist Republicans better damn well tell us, fast.

Offline atlq

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Re: Wall Street's nightmare goes nuclear
« Reply #20 on: September 17, 2008, 12:47:11 PM »
Now that the People own a major insurance company, it's fair to ask how the People's Insurance Company, along with the People's Mortgage Companies and the People's Investment Banks, will benefit the People who Own them. Can we expect lower premiums, equity sharing, and corporate perks for our hundreds of billions of dollars? Should we start checking our mailbox for dividend checks? Who gets paid first, claimants, bondholders, stockholders, or we the new taxpayer owners? We the Owners, want to know, and the Union of Socialist Republicans better damn well tell us, fast.


I want a Pony....... ;D
“Keep up the good work....   And God bless you.”
  --  Sarah Palin, to members of the Alaskan Independence Party, 2008

Offline Assurbanipal

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  • Taking a forums break, still see PM's
Re: Wall Street's nightmare goes nuclear
« Reply #21 on: September 17, 2008, 12:59:45 PM »
The US did not nationalize AIG -- that was hyperbole.  This transaction follows a moderately well worn path of bailouts and other negotiated partial government takeowvers dating back to at least the Chrysler loan guarantee and appears to apply some of what the feds have learned to better protect the public purse (after a bailout happens -- the Bushies clearly didn't learn anything about how to prevent the need for bailouts).

Federal agencies own more bits and pieces and rights to various corporations than is generally remarked on -- these recent bailouts are distinguished by their scale and that they are bailouts instead of negotiated settlements of potential claims rather than by th rights and features they convey.

In this case what the taxpayer gets includes warrants for up to just under 80% of the stock and the rights to change leadership.  AIG has one subsidiary that generated the problems, but many other profitable businesses in other subsidiaries.  Its market value is about $6B today but its been worth up to 30 times that during the past year.   It may well be that the taxpayers make a profit on the deal -- won't be the first time that's happened -- only time will tell.
5/06 VL 1M+, CD4 22, 5% , pneumonia, thrush -- O2 support 2 months, 6/06 +Kaletra/Truvada
9/06 VL 3959 CD4 297 13.5% 12/06 VL <400 CD4 350 15.2% +Pravachol
2007 VL<400, 70, 50 CD4 408-729 16.0% -19.7%
2008 VL UD CD4 468 - 538 16.7% - 24.6% Osteoporosis 11/08 doubled Pravachol, +Calcium/D
02/09 VL 100 CD4 616 23.7% 03/09 VL 130 5/09 VL 100 CD4 540 28.4% +Actonel (osteoporosis) 7/09 VL 130
8/09  new regimen Isentress/Epzicom 9/09 VL UD CD4 621 32.7% 11/09 VL UD CD4 607 26.4% swap Isentress for Prezista/Norvir 12/09 (liver and muscle issues) VL 50
2010 VL UD CD4 573-680 26.1% - 30.9% 12/10 VL 20
2011 VL UD-20 CD4 568-673 24.7%-30.6%
2012 VL UD swap Prezista/Norvir for Reyataz drop statin CD4 768-828 26.7%-30.7%

Offline Dachshund

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Re: Wall Street's nightmare goes nuclear
« Reply #22 on: September 17, 2008, 01:14:56 PM »
The American taxpayer is gradually assuming primary responsibility for keeping global financial markets above water. But before this crisis ever started, this country and individual Americans were already spending far in excess of their income -- we were already living on credit. It's hard to see how we can afford the liabilities we are taking on.

Offline Assurbanipal

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  • Taking a forums break, still see PM's
Re: Wall Street's nightmare goes nuclear
« Reply #23 on: September 17, 2008, 01:39:49 PM »
The American taxpayer is gradually assuming primary responsibility for keeping global financial markets above water. But before this crisis ever started, this country and individual Americans were already spending far in excess of their income -- we were already living on credit. It's hard to see how we can afford the liabilities we are taking on.

A mere 7.5 years ago, after the successes of the last Democratic Administration, the federal government projected surpluses "as far as the eye can see" (n.b. the eye of the CBO apparently has at best a 15-year focal point  :)).  After a disastrous series of poorly thought out wars, tax policies, job policies and the poorest quality Administration set of political appointees in the past 50 years we are now in a state of national economic despair and international disrepute.

But I don't doubt that under a new Democratic Administration and Congress we will summon the national will to fix our problems.

Vote for Obama!

(edit -- sorry for the hijack ... but I'm hoping the OP will forgive me)
« Last Edit: September 17, 2008, 01:41:27 PM by Assurbanipal »
5/06 VL 1M+, CD4 22, 5% , pneumonia, thrush -- O2 support 2 months, 6/06 +Kaletra/Truvada
9/06 VL 3959 CD4 297 13.5% 12/06 VL <400 CD4 350 15.2% +Pravachol
2007 VL<400, 70, 50 CD4 408-729 16.0% -19.7%
2008 VL UD CD4 468 - 538 16.7% - 24.6% Osteoporosis 11/08 doubled Pravachol, +Calcium/D
02/09 VL 100 CD4 616 23.7% 03/09 VL 130 5/09 VL 100 CD4 540 28.4% +Actonel (osteoporosis) 7/09 VL 130
8/09  new regimen Isentress/Epzicom 9/09 VL UD CD4 621 32.7% 11/09 VL UD CD4 607 26.4% swap Isentress for Prezista/Norvir 12/09 (liver and muscle issues) VL 50
2010 VL UD CD4 573-680 26.1% - 30.9% 12/10 VL 20
2011 VL UD-20 CD4 568-673 24.7%-30.6%
2012 VL UD swap Prezista/Norvir for Reyataz drop statin CD4 768-828 26.7%-30.7%

Offline Miss Philicia

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  • celebrity poster, faker & poser
Re: Wall Street's nightmare goes nuclear
« Reply #24 on: September 17, 2008, 06:24:05 PM »
Correct me if I'm wrong, but in past administrations if there was an economic crisis of this magnitude the President would magically appear on network TV at 9pm to soothe the worries of The American People™.  Seems to me this isn't being done because the GOP is still in "Hide The Prez" mode after the RNC convention.  Kind of makes the "Country First" slogan look a bit empty, doesn't it?
"I’ve slept with enough men to know that I’m not gay"

Offline Miss Philicia

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  • celebrity poster, faker & poser
Re: Wall Street's nightmare goes nuclear
« Reply #25 on: September 17, 2008, 06:52:21 PM »
Meanwhile, back at the ranch:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/general_election_mccain_vs_obama-225.html

Obama's up in all of today's polls, except for one.
"I’ve slept with enough men to know that I’m not gay"

Offline allopathicholistic

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Re: Wall Street's nightmare goes nuclear
« Reply #26 on: September 17, 2008, 07:23:38 PM »
You've not been keeping track of foreign purchases of U.S. Treasury bonds and debt.  China has been bailing us out for quite a while now.

how dreadful

Offline J.R.E.

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  • Posts: 7,093
  • Joined Dec-2003 Living positive, since 1985.
Re: Wall Street's nightmare goes nuclear
« Reply #27 on: September 17, 2008, 07:28:36 PM »


A couple more 500 point drops in the market, and some more McCain speak of how "fundamentally sound" the economy is, should put Obama over the top. I would think...


Ray
Current Meds ; Viramune, Epzicom, 40mg of simvastatin, 12.5mg of Hydrochlorothiazide.
Metoprolol tartrate 25mg



http://forums.poz.com/index.php?topic=40802.0

http://forums.poz.com/index.php?topic=45159.0

http://forums.poz.com/index.php?topic=39722.msg495621;topicseen#msg495621

http://forums.poz.com/index.php?topic=46806.0

http://forums.poz.com/index.php?topic=39414.msg491701#msg491701


 In October of 2003, My t-cell count was 16, Viral load was over 500,000, Percentage at that time was 5%. I started my first  HAART regimen  on October 24th,03.

 As of 6/4/14,  t-cells are at 423, Viral load <40

 Current % is at 13% 

  
 62 years young.

Offline Dachshund

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  • Posts: 5,941
Re: Wall Street's nightmare goes nuclear
« Reply #28 on: September 17, 2008, 11:20:33 PM »
Anyone one speak Palinese? Here's her take on the financial crisis, and she's talking to Sean Hannity. Jesus help us if she's elected.

On fixing the economy:  “Through reform, absolutely.  Look at the oversight that has been lack, I believe, here at the 1930s type of regulatory regime overseeing some of these corporations.  And we’ve got to get a more coordinated and a much more stringent oversight regime…government can play a very, very appropriate role in the oversight as people are trusting these companies with their life savings, with their investments, with their insurance policies, and construction bonds, and everything else.”

On who is responsible for the failing financial institutions:  “I think the corruption on Wall Street.  That’s to blame.  And that violation of the public trust.  And that contract that should be inherent in corporations who are spending, investing other people’s money, the abuse of that is what has got to stop.

“And it’s a matter, too, of some of these CEOs and top management people, and shareholders too not holding that management accountable, being addicted to, we call it, OPM, O-P-M, “other people’s money.”

“Spending that, investing that, not using the prudence that we expect of them.  But here again, government has got to play an appropriate role in the stringent oversight, making sure that those abuses stop.”

On AIG getting government bailout:  “Well, you know, first, Fannie and Freddie, different because quasi-government agencies there where government had to step in because of the adverse impacts all across our nation, especially with homeowners.

“It’s just too impacting, we had to step in there.  I do not like the idea though of taxpayers being used to bailout these corporations.  Today it was AIG, important call there, though, because of the construction bonds and the insurance carrier duties of AIG.”

Offline komnaes

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Re: Wall Street's nightmare goes nuclear
« Reply #29 on: September 18, 2008, 02:52:32 AM »
I can't help having this image of Jimmy Carter smiling to himself during many of those "I told you so" moments..
Aug 07 Diagnosed
Oct 07 CD4=446(19%) Feb 08 CD4=421(19%)
Jun 08 CD4=325(22%) Jul 08 CD4=301(18%)
Sep 08 CD4=257/VL=75,000 Oct 08 CD4=347(16%)
Dec 08 CD4=270(16%)
Jan 09 CD4=246(13%)/VL=10,000
Feb 09 CD4=233(15%)/VL=13,000
Started meds Sustiva/Epzicom
May 09 CD4=333(24%)/VL=650
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Offline Miss Philicia

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Re: Wall Street's nightmare goes nuclear
« Reply #30 on: September 19, 2008, 12:54:30 AM »
source

America will need a $1 to $2 trillion bail-out
ByKenneth Rogoff
The writer is professor of economics at Harvard University and former chief economist of the International Monetary Fund
Published: September 17 2008

One of the most extraordinary features of the past month is the extent to which the dollar has remained immune to a once-in-a-lifetime financial crisis. If the US were an emerging market country, its exchange rate would be plummeting and interest rates on government debt would be soaring. Instead, the dollar has actually strengthened modestly, while interest rates on three- month US Treasury Bills have now reached 54-year lows. It is almost as if the more the US messes up, the more the world loves it.

But can this extraordinary vote of confidence in the dollar last? Perhaps, but as investors step back and look at the deep wounds of America’s flagship financial sector, the public and private sector’s massive borrowing needs, and the looming uncertainty of the November presidential elections, it is hard to believe that the dollar will continue to stand its ground as the crisis continues to deepen and unfold.

It is true that the US government has very deep pockets. Privately held US government debt was under $4,400bn at the end of 2007, representing less than 32 per cent of gross domestic product. This is roughly half the debt burden carried by most European countries, and an even smaller fraction of Japan’s debt levels. It is also true that despite the increasingly tough stance of US regulators, the financial crisis has probably already added at most $200bn-$300bn to net debt, taking into account the likely losses on nationalising the mortgage giants Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae, the costs of the $29bn March bail-out of investment bank Bear Stearns, the potential fallout from the various junk collateral the Federal Reserve has taken on to its balance sheet in the last few months, and finally, Wednesday’s $85bn bail-out of the insurance giant AIG.

Were the financial crisis to end today, the costs would be painful but manageable, roughly equivalent to the cost of another year in Iraq. Unfortunately, however, the financial crisis is far from over, and it is hard to imagine how the US government is going to succeed in creating a firewall against further contagion without spending five to 10 times more than it has already, that is, an amount closer to $1,000bn to $2,000bn.
"I’ve slept with enough men to know that I’m not gay"

Offline GSOgymrat

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Re: Wall Street's nightmare goes nuclear
« Reply #31 on: September 25, 2008, 05:17:13 PM »
I've been trying to learn more about the $700 billion bail out plan and the impact it will have on the economy. I've read several articles but I feel like I don't understand the big picture. Why are all these analysts, even those who are typically not for government intervention and subsidies, saying we have to have a bailout? What are the long term consequences of this bailout? Can anyone recommend a good article online that would address these questions?

Offline Assurbanipal

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Re: Wall Street's nightmare goes nuclear
« Reply #32 on: September 25, 2008, 07:03:05 PM »
It may help to back up to AIG/Lehman.  I liked this article on what happened there and why:

http://freakonomics.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/09/18/diamond-and-kashyap-on-the-recent-financial-upheavals/?em&exprod=myyahoo

then moving forward
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/09/21/business/21econ.html?pagewanted=2&ref=business
and

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/09/21/business/21paulson.html?pagewanted=1&_r=1&exprod=myyahoo
which was paired with this one in the Sunday NYT
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/09/21/business/21cong.html?ref=business

As far as long term consequences -- well that depends on the terms Treasury negotiates with the sellers, the policies it applies to the people who actually took out the mortgages and all those other things that are currently under negotiation.


Note -- the testimony of Paulsen and Bernanke on what they did and why they felt it imperative to do more is available online as well
http://banking.senate.gov/public/_files/PAULSONTestimony92308.pdf
http://banking.senate.gov/public/_files/BERNANKEStatement092308_SenateBankingCommittee.pdf



« Last Edit: September 25, 2008, 07:04:48 PM by Assurbanipal »
5/06 VL 1M+, CD4 22, 5% , pneumonia, thrush -- O2 support 2 months, 6/06 +Kaletra/Truvada
9/06 VL 3959 CD4 297 13.5% 12/06 VL <400 CD4 350 15.2% +Pravachol
2007 VL<400, 70, 50 CD4 408-729 16.0% -19.7%
2008 VL UD CD4 468 - 538 16.7% - 24.6% Osteoporosis 11/08 doubled Pravachol, +Calcium/D
02/09 VL 100 CD4 616 23.7% 03/09 VL 130 5/09 VL 100 CD4 540 28.4% +Actonel (osteoporosis) 7/09 VL 130
8/09  new regimen Isentress/Epzicom 9/09 VL UD CD4 621 32.7% 11/09 VL UD CD4 607 26.4% swap Isentress for Prezista/Norvir 12/09 (liver and muscle issues) VL 50
2010 VL UD CD4 573-680 26.1% - 30.9% 12/10 VL 20
2011 VL UD-20 CD4 568-673 24.7%-30.6%
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Offline GSOgymrat

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Re: Wall Street's nightmare goes nuclear
« Reply #33 on: September 25, 2008, 07:21:25 PM »
Thanks! I appreciate the links.

 


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