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Author Topic: Estimated infection times  (Read 5111 times)

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Offline extrude

  • Member
  • Posts: 8
Estimated infection times
« on: March 30, 2008, 02:21:10 PM »
i know its hard to estimate how long you have been infected, but my cd4 was 110 and the vl was 39000 when i was first tested. how many years might i have been infected for?

Offline thunter34

  • Member
  • Posts: 7,314
  • His name is Carl.
Re: Estimated infection times
« Reply #1 on: March 30, 2008, 02:25:59 PM »
Who knows?  I was neg early 2002, and had 145 / AIDS by December 2004....just under three years. 
AIDS isn't for sissies.

Offline germangirl

  • Member
  • Posts: 67
Re: Estimated infection times
« Reply #2 on: March 30, 2008, 05:37:57 PM »
Eres el aire que respiro,
Eres el compania de mi soledad,
Eres el luz que me ilumina,
Eres el camino en la oseuidad.
Dedicated to my husband

My husband is positive, I am negative.

Offline J.R.E.

  • Member
  • Posts: 7,160
  • Joined Dec-2003 Living positive, since 1985.
Re: Estimated infection times
« Reply #3 on: March 30, 2008, 09:15:12 PM »
Hi

I also don't believe it is possible to know for sure. I tested possitive in October of 1985. This, I know for fact. In September of 2003 I had a viral load 500,000 and 16 t-cells. This I also know for fact. Our bodies are going to handle this virus differently.


Take care-----Ray
Current Meds ; Viramune, Epzicom, 40mg of simvastatin, 12.5mg of Hydrochlorothiazide.
Metoprolol tartrate 25mg



http://forums.poz.com/index.php?topic=40802.0

http://forums.poz.com/index.php?topic=45159.0

http://forums.poz.com/index.php?topic=39722.msg495621;topicseen#msg495621

http://forums.poz.com/index.php?topic=46806.0

http://forums.poz.com/index.php?topic=39414.msg491701#msg491701


 In October of 2003, My t-cell count was 16, Viral load was over 500,000, Percentage at that time was 5%. I started my first  HAART regimen  on October 24th,03.

 As of 8/2514,  t-cells are at 402, Viral load <40

 Current % is at 11%

  
 62 years young.

Offline MOONLIGHT1114

  • Member
  • Posts: 1,918
  • Cheech 2.2.94 - 4.23.10 We miss you so much!
Re: Estimated infection times
« Reply #4 on: March 30, 2008, 10:11:55 PM »
I tested pos in Dec '93 and back then they didn't do VL tests.  I am sure I sero-converted no earlier than Spring '92 at the earliest.  My CD4 was around 1050 at diagnosis.  About two years later, in late '95 I had dropped to 396 and the doc suggested I start AZT.

And just look at me NOW....  ;D   :-*
HIV+ since '93, 1/12 - CD4 785 and undet.   WOO-HOO!!

Offline bimazek

  • Member
  • Posts: 781
Re: Estimated infection times
« Reply #5 on: April 14, 2008, 07:54:50 PM »
it is definitely possible to know and they even have a test to tell you how long you were infected but only at research universities and it can only tell you the months upto 18 months and the years over or under a few years

you could be anywhere from 3 to 9 years is my best guess
100 t cells a year lost is average

how old are you
when were you most active sexually

it cannot be more than 12 years
and it would be one in a million for less than 1 or 2 years



Offline Ann

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  • Member
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  • It just is, OK?
    • Num is sum qui mentiar tibi?
Re: Estimated infection times
« Reply #6 on: April 15, 2008, 04:37:35 AM »
it is definitely possible to know and they even have a test to tell you how long you were infected but only at research universities and it can only tell you the months upto 18 months and the years over or under a few years

you could be anywhere from 3 to 9 years is my best guess
100 t cells a year lost is average

how old are you
when were you most active sexually

it cannot be more than 12 years
and it would be one in a million for less than 1 or 2 years




Bim,

As has already been stated, it isn't possible to "know" with any certainty as everyone's body handles the virus differently. What you have provided is a guestimate - at best.

Ann
Condoms are a girl's best friend

Condom and Lube Info  



"...health will finally be seen not as a blessing to be wished for, but as a human right to be fought for." Kofi Annan

Nymphomaniac: a woman as obsessed with sex as an average man. Mignon McLaughlin

HIV is certainly character-building. It's made me see all of the shallow things we cling to, like ego and vanity. Of course, I'd rather have a few more T-cells and a little less character. Randy Shilts

Offline madbrain

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  • No longer an active member
    • My personal site
Re: Estimated infection times
« Reply #7 on: April 21, 2008, 08:39:40 PM »
bimazek,

it is definitely possible to know and they even have a test to tell you how long you were infected but only at research universities and it can only tell you the months upto 18 months and the years over or under a few years

you could be anywhere from 3 to 9 years is my best guess
100 t cells a year lost is average

how old are you
when were you most active sexually

it cannot be more than 12 years
and it would be one in a million for less than 1 or 2 years




Do you care to elaborate on what that test is ?

And about the one in a million ... My bf tested neg in 5/2006. I have his results in writing from Planned parenthood.

Then, in 11/2006 he tested poz right after I did. His VL was only 4000, and CD4 300, and CD4 13% . The low %  (<14) meant he had an AIDS diagnosis right from the start per the CDC definition. That's only 6 months between his last neg test and AIDS diagnosis.

By 1/2007 his CD4 were down to 240, CD4 9%, and VL up to 30,000 . AIDS and progressing.

He was started on HAART in 3/2007. The health dept doc didn't do another test before starting so we don't know how low he went. His VL has been undectable since 5/2007, but his CD4 have been all over the place. 200 one month, 400 the next, then 250 ... Very weird.

I spoke to several people in my support group at Kaiser about this. One said they also said they lost most of their t-cells within one year of infection. I have no idea how often this happens, but I think just this anecdotal evidence is sufficient to prove that it happens a little bit more frequently than one in a million.

Offline RapidRod

  • Member
  • Posts: 15,288
Re: Estimated infection times
« Reply #8 on: April 21, 2008, 09:57:50 PM »
madbrain, I would say his first negative test was incorrect. Never have I heard of anyone being negative and in 6 months time have an AIDS diagnoses. Unless he was immunosupressed due to some other cause.
 

Offline madbrain

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  • Posts: 1,208
  • No longer an active member
    • My personal site
Re: Estimated infection times
« Reply #9 on: April 22, 2008, 12:13:05 AM »
Hi,

madbrain, I would say his first negative test was incorrect. Never have I heard of anyone being negative and in 6 months time have an AIDS diagnoses. Unless he was immunosupressed due to some other cause.
 

I have thought this might be the case about his first test being incorrect. I don't have any way to prove it. What are the odds of that happening ?

The initial VL he got of 4000 is not inconsistent with a recent infection. I had my last neg test and poz test around the same time that he did, and my initial VL came in even lower, at 698. Our HIV genotypes turned out the same, so we definitely infected each other. But it's impossible to tell who got it first.

There is no other previous cause of immunosuppression for him that I know of. He is a very healthy guy, much more so than I am. He was already going to the gym daily, eating a good diet, never did any drugs, not even alcohol, before his HIV diagnosis. He had not gotten sick in years. So the poz and AIDS diagnosis was a complete surprise for him.

Offline OneMoreGuy

  • Member
  • Posts: 77
Re: Estimated infection times
« Reply #10 on: May 01, 2008, 04:22:41 AM »
I also disagree with the 'one in a million that it could have happened between 1 to 2 yrs'.

Not only has that happened to many of my patients, for it happened to me.

In a period of almost two years I went from CD4 of 458 / VL 92700 to a CD4 of 186 / VL 198000.

Aside from having high blood pressure (way before I sero-converted) I was completely healthy during all that time not even catching a flu. Actually I felt so good that I didn't see my doctor during those entire two years, and the only reason I was started on meds was because me CD4 count was under 300 and not because I was feeling sick.

As many have already expressed, and one of the reasons this damn virus is so hard to pin-down, is because we all react differently to it. There are no 'written in stone' given general certainties when it comes to HIV.
Psychologist, PhD
Counseling patients with HIV since Jan 1991
HIV since Dec 2005
There are three parts to any successful relationship (platonic or romantic): trust, honesty and communication

Offline yasoza

  • Member
  • Posts: 22
Re: Estimated infection times
« Reply #11 on: May 08, 2008, 04:37:54 PM »
yep, i was infected 1993 and 2007 my cd count was 160 vl 83,000 ::)

 


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