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Author Topic: 2,000% percent increase in lung cancer for men who smoke. Mayo clinic  (Read 2704 times)

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Offline bimazek

  • Member
  • Posts: 781
the risk of lung cancer for men who smoke is more than 2,000 percent higher than it is for men who don't smoke. Keep in mind that when you hear about relative risk, there's no upper limit to the percentage increase in risk. Most people think 100 percent is the highest possible risk, but that isn't true when talking about relative risk.

A relative risk of 100 percent means your risk is twice as high as that of someone without that risk factor. A 200 percent relative risk means that you are three times as likely to develop that condition.

http://www.mayoclinic.com/health/cancer/CA00053


my question is......

how much more is that for hiv-ers and

on and off haart???????????????

that was the point of my other post...

and then how does this coorispond will all the other cancer risks????????????

Your Disease Risk
Developed over the past ten years by the Harvard Center for Cancer Prevention, Your Disease Risk collects the latest scientific evidence on disease risk ...
www.yourdiseaserisk.harvard.edu/

Offline milker

  • Member
  • Posts: 4,034
  • Protected phone sex
I am a heavy smoker (two packs a day) and so far my HIV condition has not changed anything. My lungs are "clean" and my doctor said those are totally unrelated. He wishhes I stop smoking, which is understandable and is my goal. But Hiv has nothing to do with it.

Milker.
mid-dec: stupid ass
mid-jan: seroconversion
mid-feb: poz
mar 07: cd4 432 (35%) vl 54000
may 07: cd4 399 (28%) vl 27760
jul 07: cd4 403 (26%) vl 99241
oct 07: cd4 353 (24%) vl 29993
jan 08: cd4 332 (26%) vl 33308
mar 08: cd4 392 (23%) vl 75548
jun 08: cd4 325 (27%) vl 45880
oct 08: cd4 197 (20%) vl 154000 <== aids diagnosis
nov 2 08 start Atripla
nov 30 08: cd4 478 (23%) vl 1880 !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
feb 19 09: cd4 398 (24%) vl 430 getting there!
apr 23 09: cd4 604 (29%) vl 50 woohoo :D :D
jul 30 09: cd4 512 (29%) vl undetectable :D :D
may 27 10: cd4 655 (32%) vl undetectable :D :D

Now accepting applications from blowjob ninjas™

Offline newt

  • Member
  • Posts: 3,887
  • the one and original newt
The Mayo Clinic page has a handy section called "Keep cancer risk statistics in perspective" lower down the page...

Unlike Mayo, serious stat bods don't use % for relative risks. And, unlike Mayo, they include a confidence interval or some other measure of how accurate the nos are. Mayo just wants a big fig to scare people off smoking.

On lung cancer, the important factor here seems to be (so far) HIV itself. It is moderately well established that the relative risk (RR) compared to HIV-negative people of HIV-positive people getting lung cancer is between 1:2 and 1:8, regardless of smoking, age or use of combo.  The only factor influencing the RR is (1) being HIV-positive (2)  in some studies, viral load (higher increases probability - ah yes, does not hAART reduce viral load...). Many other cancers show a 1:1 RR comparing HIV-negative to HIV-positive people, and incidence has declined for HIV-related cancers eg KS, NHL post-HAART (hmmm...). 

There's no strong evidence combo generally causes cancer or increases the risk . Some research suggests a case for further investigation (of particular drugs/drug types), especially for people who have been HIV-positive since birth on treatment.

There's strong evidence combo generally reduces the incidence of cancer in HIV-positive people.

If you's worried about cancer take steps to reduce the risk (eg stop smoking) and perhaps get a regular screen (though evidence says this does not improve outcomes except in cases of defined risk, so save your money).

Most people who get cancer are very old.  Moral: live long enough you will most likely get a cancer of one sort or another, HIV or no.

A depressed & creaky immune system is likely to increase the absolute risk of cancer (like old people), but with HIV, how and why we don't know. So far, combo has not in itself been identified as an independent, contributing factor to the risk of cancer. Anyone who says it is show me a definitive study. There is, clearly, scope for more research.

I am only posting in this thread because the 2,000% ALARM will worry people. Moral: don't smoke. exercise, eat and sleep well, be gentle on yourself, stay off cancer websites. It's not rocket science.

- matt
« Last Edit: May 04, 2007, 07:23:43 AM by newt »
"The object is to be a well patient, not a good patient"

Offline David_CA

  • Member
  • Posts: 3,246
  • Joined: March 2006
Great, another exciting and upbeat post to start my morning.  Thanks bimazek.  BTW, I wonder if I'll get killed by a bus, in a car accident, lightning (it's supposed to storm today), or maybe choke on my lunch and die?  Maybe we can find the stats on all those happening and post them, too (note: I'm kidding about finding those stats, please don't).  Maybe you can find something positive in life to think / post about.  It'd be good for you (and us).

David
Black Friday 03-03-2006
03-23-06 CD4 359 @27.4% VL 75,938
06-01-06 CD4 462 @24.3% VL > 100,000
08-15-06 CD4 388 @22.8% VL >  "
10-21-06 CD4 285 @21.9% VL >  "
  Atripla started 12-01-2006
01-08-07 CD4 429 @26.8% VL 1872!
05-08-07 CD4 478 @28.1% VL 740
08-03-07 CD4 509 @31.8% VL 370
11-06-07 CD4 570 @30.0% VL 140
02-21-08 CD4 648 @32.4% VL 600
05-19-08 CD4 695 @33.1% VL < 48 undetectable!
08-21-08 CD4 725 @34.5%
11-11-08 CD4 672 @39.5%
02-11-09 CD4 773 @36.8%
05-11-09 CD4 615 @36.2%
08-19-09 CD4 770 @38.5%
11-19-09 CD4 944 @33.7%
02-17-10 CD4 678 @39.9%  
06-03-10 CD4 768 @34.9%
09-21-10 CD4 685 @40.3%
01-10-11 CD4 908 @36.3%
05-23-11 CD4 846 @36.8% VL 80
02-13-12 CD4 911 @41.4% VL<20
You must be the change you want to see in the world.  Mahatma Gandhi

Offline mjmel

  • Member
  • Posts: 2,069
Matt, (newt) thanks for the nicely balanced perspective of your post.

bimazek, don't you think his post was well constructed and a balanced point of view?

xxx,
Mike

Offline GSOgymrat

  • Member
  • Posts: 5,053
  • HIV+ since 1993. INTJ
Mike, your avatar pic is adorable!

Offline Miss Philicia

  • Member
  • Posts: 24,519
  • celebrity poster, faker & poser
Jeanne Calment smoked until the age of 117, and is on record as the all time longest living person.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jeanne_Calment

She must have been doing something right.
"I’ve slept with enough men to know that I’m not gay"

Offline Jake72

  • Member
  • Posts: 145

I am only posting in this thread because the 2,000% ALARM will worry people.

Yes, that is worrisome, but...

On lung cancer, the important factor here seems to be (so far) HIV itself. It is moderately well established that the relative risk (RR) compared to HIV-negative people of HIV-positive people getting lung cancer is between 1:2 and 1:8, regardless of smoking, age or use of combo.

I find that even more worrisome.  What you're saying is that even if we avoid smoking (and avoid smoke), if we're totally compliant with our meds, and if we have great responses (undetectable v/l, robust cd4s), we're STILL up to 800% more likely to get lung cancer. 

HIV is a frustrating condition for many reasons, not least of all because, apparently, even when the treatment is working wonderfully and HIV is supposedly "in hiding," it can still cause things like lipo (according to some of these threads) and...lung cancer?  WTF...       

Offline Central79

  • Member
  • Posts: 527
Well maybe the risk of a smoker developing lung cancer vs a non-smoker is 2000%. I wouldn't be surprised, but this is only because the risk of developing lung cancer if you do not smoke is incredibly small - I mean, it's the kind of thing that gets published in medical journals. As far as there are rules in medicine, this is one: non-smokers do not get lung cancer.

The picture is more complicated in HIV+ people, but isn't it always. Although lung cancer is a non-AIDS-related cancer, it does increase in incidence with lower CD4 counts. The relationship might not be as clear as with the AIDS-cancers, but it is there:

http://www.aidsmap.com/en/news/3A0534A1-56DD-4339-BBB4-D76B909FCFAD.asp

I personally liked the study reported here - that showed that people with AIDS-diagnoses are about 3.8x greater risk for lung cancer, after you control for smoking (which is higher in HIV+ populations). The people who were at particular risk were younger AIDS patients - between 15 and 40.

http://www.aidsmap.com/en/news/4B6A07F1-935A-4550-8631-486D69134468.asp

I think that the bottom line here is that decreased immune surveillance + carcinogen = trouble. Stopping smoking should be a priority for any HIV+ person.

On the plus side, the incidence of these cancers seems to be decreasing. And HIV+ people are now put through the same treatment protocols as HIV- people.

M.
Diagnosed January 2006
26/1/06 - 860 (22%), VL > 500,000
24/4/06 - 820 (24.6%), VL 158,000
13/7/06 - 840 (22%), VL 268,000
1/11/06 - 680 (21%), VL 93,100
29/1/07 - 1,020 (27.5%), VL 46,500
15/5/07 - 1,140 (22.8%), VL not done.
13/10/07 - 759 (23.2%), VL 170,000
6/11/07 - 630 (25%), VL 19,324
14/1/08 - 650 (21%), VL 16,192
15/4/08 - 590 (21%), VL 40, 832

Offline BT65

  • Global Moderator
  • Member
  • Posts: 10,093
bimazek-the next time you want to roll out some numbers, why don't you discuss them with your own doctor.  Please don't try to get everyone up in arms!  Thanx!
Peace-
Betty
I've never killed anyone, but I frequently get satisfaction reading the obituary notices.-Clarence Darrow

Offline RapidRod

  • Member
  • Posts: 15,288
I like my doctor's approach. "Smoking is the least of your worries. We'll deal with that at a later date if need be."

Offline bear60

  • Member
  • Posts: 4,104
reading this thread makes me want to start smoking again.........
Poz Bear Type in Philadelphia

Offline milker

  • Member
  • Posts: 4,034
  • Protected phone sex
reading this thread makes me want to start smoking again.........
:D :D :D :D
mid-dec: stupid ass
mid-jan: seroconversion
mid-feb: poz
mar 07: cd4 432 (35%) vl 54000
may 07: cd4 399 (28%) vl 27760
jul 07: cd4 403 (26%) vl 99241
oct 07: cd4 353 (24%) vl 29993
jan 08: cd4 332 (26%) vl 33308
mar 08: cd4 392 (23%) vl 75548
jun 08: cd4 325 (27%) vl 45880
oct 08: cd4 197 (20%) vl 154000 <== aids diagnosis
nov 2 08 start Atripla
nov 30 08: cd4 478 (23%) vl 1880 !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
feb 19 09: cd4 398 (24%) vl 430 getting there!
apr 23 09: cd4 604 (29%) vl 50 woohoo :D :D
jul 30 09: cd4 512 (29%) vl undetectable :D :D
may 27 10: cd4 655 (32%) vl undetectable :D :D

Now accepting applications from blowjob ninjas™

Offline Mike89406

  • Member
  • Posts: 206
the risk of lung cancer for men who smoke is more than 2,000 percent higher than it is for men who don't smoke. Keep in mind that when you hear about relative risk, there's no upper limit to the percentage increase in risk. Most people think 100 percent is the highest possible risk, but that isn't true when talking about relative risk.

A relative risk of 100 percent means your risk is twice as high as that of someone without that risk factor. A 200 percent relative risk means that you are three times as likely to develop that condition.

http://www.mayoclinic.com/health/cancer/CA00053


my question is......

how much more is that for hiv-ers and

on and off haart???????????????

that was the point of my other post...

and then how does this coorispond will all the other cancer risks????????????

Your Disease Risk
Developed over the past ten years by the Harvard Center for Cancer Prevention, Your Disease Risk collects the latest scientific evidence on disease risk ...
www.yourdiseaserisk.harvard.edu/

A recent study said that there is no statistic difference of a HIV+ that smokes or doesn't smoke. So what does that mean? The likelyhood of getting lung cancer being POZ is the same virtually whether you smoke or not. |

Wheres the link? I cant remember but if you search on this site there was an article early this year about it. What does this mean for me? I dont really care. I quit smoking 3 mos ago regardless of how I die at least i quit that nasty habit.

Offline J.R.E.

  • Member
  • Posts: 7,281
  • Joined Dec-2003 Living positive, since 1985.
http://www.aidsmap.com/en/docs/12374D45-99EB-4F5F-A402-6BA1F8A13E53.asp



"Smoking and HIV
Smoking, in itself, does not make HIV infection worse. The rate at which HIV disease progresses or the number of CD4 cells lost is no greater in smokers than non-smokers. Anti-HIV medication is just as effective in smokers as non-smokers.

However, there is very good evidence that people with HIV who smoke are more likely to get certain infections and AIDS-defining illnesses, particularly those affecting the chest. It's known that smokers are approximately three times more likely than non-smokers to develop the AIDS-defining pneumonia PCP. Oral thrush, a common complaint in people with HIV, is also more common amongst smokers.

Emphysema, a smoking-related illness, occurs much more commonly in HIV-positive smokers than HIV-negative smokers.
It's well known that smoking increases the risk of heart disease, high blood pressure, and stroke. It's thought that having a long-term illness like HIV might increase the risk of heart disease. Further, some anti-HIV drugs can cause increases in blood fats, and this can contribute to cardiovascular illnesses. If you smoke and take anti-HIV drugs, then your risks might be increased even further.

It's well established that smoking increases the risk of lung cancer. Although relatively rare, lung cancer seems to occur more often in people with HIV, even if they are taking anti-HIV drugs and have a well-controlled viral load. In one study, all the HIV-positive people who developed lung cancer were smokers.



Ray
Current Meds ; Viramune, Epzicom, 40mg of simvastatin, 25 mg of Hydrochlorothiazide.
Metoprolol tartrate 25mg



http://forums.poz.com/index.php?topic=40802.0

http://forums.poz.com/index.php?topic=45159.0

http://forums.poz.com/index.php?topic=39722.msg495621;topicseen#msg495621

http://forums.poz.com/index.php?topic=46806.0

http://forums.poz.com/index.php?topic=39414.msg491701#msg491701


Diagnosed positive in 1985,.. In October of 2003, My t-cell count was 16, Viral load was over 500,000, Percentage at that time was 5%. I started on  HAART on October 24th, 2003.

 As of 12/10/14,  t-cells are at 350,  Previous 8/25/14--- 402/ Viral load remains <40

 Current % is at 13% / Previous 8/25/14 11%

  
 63 years young.

 


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