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Author Topic: HIV: Average Age at Death 45.3 Years  (Read 31098 times)

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Offline jkinatl2

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Re: HIV: Average Age at Death 45.3 Years
« Reply #100 on: March 17, 2007, 05:21:08 PM »
I agree. I hope to see less topics like this here in the future.

No offense, but I wholeheartedly disagree. Sometimes its the difficult conversations that need the most exploration.

"Many people, especially in the gay community, turn to oral sex as a safer alternative in the age of AIDS. And with HIV rates rising, people need to remember that oral sex is safer sex. It's a reasonable alternative."

-Kimberly Page-Shafer, PhD, MPH

Welcome Thread

Offline megasept

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sometimes it
« Reply #101 on: March 17, 2007, 05:31:00 PM »
It's got a lot of those:
1 in 255 chance of a Canadian dying from poisoning.

As a smart ass son of a (non-Canadian) father who really is a statistician, let me point out that there is
a 100% chance of a Canadian drying from poisoning. It's how you word it.

Statistics aren't the problem putting the right data together and then making causal connections and other analysis is the next problem. People are always the problem (like Canadians who DON"T die of poisoning yearly (lol)

Offline thunter34

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Re: HIV: Average Age at Death 45.3 Years
« Reply #102 on: March 17, 2007, 05:42:31 PM »
No offense, but I wholeheartedly disagree. Sometimes its the difficult conversations that need the most exploration.




Yeah, but I do see this statistical deal as being about the same as that "1 in 1,000 will get HIV this way....1 in 100,000 will get it that way" thing that constantly fuels the fires over in the Am I Infected? forum.  And the whole thing about this kind of breakdown is that it usually side-steps a question like this:

What exactly qualifies as a "death due to HIV / AIDS " ?  Is that KS or MAC or what?  If I get on meds that end up causing liver failure or a heart attack and I croak that way, is that a "death due to HIV / AIDS" or not? 

(This might have been addressed up in the thread before, but I don't feel like reading all the way through right now.  I just wanna chime in cuz I feel like blabbing.  Apologies if this has already been discussed.)
AIDS isn't for sissies.

Offline bear60

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Re: HIV: Average Age at Death 45.3 Years
« Reply #103 on: March 17, 2007, 05:48:00 PM »
TIm
Babbling is ok....in fact what you are saying is important. Statistics are made up of reported deaths.  How many people do you know who have died but the family managed to have cause of death...Cancer or something else put on the death certificate? Huh? Well isnt that where statistics come from...reported deaths?
Poz Bear Type in Philadelphia

Offline thunter34

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Re: HIV: Average Age at Death 45.3 Years
« Reply #104 on: March 17, 2007, 05:50:46 PM »
TIm
Babbling is ok....in fact what you are saying is important. Statistics are made up of reported deaths.  How many people do you know who have died but the family managed to have cause of death...Cancer or something else put on the death certificate? Huh? Well isnt that where statistics come from...reported deaths?

Oh, Lordy! Yes!  Absolutely yes!  That thing has happened all over the place where HIV has been involved- nicely swept under the rug because good people don't talk about such things.  So that is indeed a factor.  I was originally calling into question how the medical world regards this kind of untimely demise (though I suspect I already know the answer). 

AIDS isn't for sissies.

Offline northernguy

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Re: HIV: Average Age at Death 45.3 Years
« Reply #105 on: March 17, 2007, 07:23:39 PM »
Wow, who knew my little topic would unleash so many comments.  Yes, stats can be twisted anyway you want.  Obviously these reflect the fact that too many people died too young early in the epidemic, not that we all expire at 45.3 years.

It does disturb me that some want to sweep unpleasantries under the rug though.  Yes, its great that many are living full lives with HIV, but let's be honest, that doesn't mean its all sunshine and lollipops.  I think that does newbies a disservice.

At the end of the day, the best stat out of the article was:

Chance that you'll die of something: 1 in 1

So make the most of your time here. :)

« Last Edit: March 17, 2007, 07:30:43 PM by northernguy »
Apr 28/06 cd4 600 vl 10,600 cd% 25
Nov 8/09 cd4 510 vl 49,5000 cd% 16
Jan 16/10 cd4 660 vl 54,309 cd% 16
Feb 17/10 Started Atripla
Mar 7/10 cd4 710 vl 1,076 cd% 21
Apr 18/10 cd4 920 vl 268 cd% 28
Jun 19/10 cd4 450 vl 60 cd% 25
Aug 15/10 cd4 680 vl 205 cd% 27
Apr 3/11 cd4 780 vl <40 cd% 30
Jul 17/11 cd4 960 vl <40 cd%33
April 15/12 cd4 1,010 vl <40 cd% 39
April 20/12 Switched to Viramune + Truvada
Aug 2/12 cd4 1040, vl <40, cd% 38
Oct 19 cd4 1,110 vl <40 cd% 41

Offline Esquare

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Re: HIV: Average Age at Death 45.3 Years
« Reply #106 on: March 17, 2007, 07:39:24 PM »
No offense, but I wholeheartedly disagree. Sometimes its the difficult conversations that need the most exploration.



I understand and I do agree with exploring the topic but it seems that we (the forums) are loaded with this stuff. That's all I was really saying.

Offline jkinatl2

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Re: HIV: Average Age at Death 45.3 Years
« Reply #107 on: March 17, 2007, 08:30:20 PM »
Those of us who enjoy these topics should feel free to continue creating/discussing them. Those who do not like the topics should feel free to abstain from participating in them. Unpopular topics and threads tend to die an early death :)

"Many people, especially in the gay community, turn to oral sex as a safer alternative in the age of AIDS. And with HIV rates rising, people need to remember that oral sex is safer sex. It's a reasonable alternative."

-Kimberly Page-Shafer, PhD, MPH

Welcome Thread

Offline jyngfilm

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Re: HIV: Average Age at Death 45.3 Years
« Reply #108 on: March 17, 2007, 10:24:48 PM »
 :( :P    where will it end?
>>there seems to be a decline in the intelligence genre of "living with" threads. does dumb cure something i was too stupid to learn?  Could it be that stupid is what got alot of folks here?. ah, hence stupid is how we continue to persevere? Hope not.  dumber than most I see a juxtaposition that's causing a slippery slope I';vie already slid down. Careful what y'all say.  ...~jordon
munchausen by proxy is not an out in my case

Offline milker

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Re: HIV: Average Age at Death 45.3 Years
« Reply #109 on: March 17, 2007, 10:47:15 PM »
Ok we talked about it, the next statistics will say 46.2 years do we really have to have 105 posts about this. Statistics which have no explanation on what has been measured have no interest to me.
mid-dec: stupid ass
mid-jan: seroconversion
mid-feb: poz
mar 07: cd4 432 (35%) vl 54000
may 07: cd4 399 (28%) vl 27760
jul 07: cd4 403 (26%) vl 99241
oct 07: cd4 353 (24%) vl 29993
jan 08: cd4 332 (26%) vl 33308
mar 08: cd4 392 (23%) vl 75548
jun 08: cd4 325 (27%) vl 45880
oct 08: cd4 197 (20%) vl 154000 <== aids diagnosis
nov 2 08 start Atripla
nov 30 08: cd4 478 (23%) vl 1880 !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
feb 19 09: cd4 398 (24%) vl 430 getting there!
apr 23 09: cd4 604 (29%) vl 50 woohoo :D :D
jul 30 09: cd4 512 (29%) vl undetectable :D :D
may 27 10: cd4 655 (32%) vl undetectable :D :D

Now accepting applications from blowjob ninjas™

Offline Mouse

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Re: HIV: Average Age at Death 45.3 Years
« Reply #110 on: March 17, 2007, 10:47:49 PM »
45 years?


The math says that's 29 years from now. Where do I sign up?

Offline milker

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Re: HIV: Average Age at Death 45.3 Years
« Reply #111 on: March 17, 2007, 10:53:35 PM »
Mouse,

you will hopefully one of them that was hiv poz in the early 2000s and will be able to live long enough to see an end to this disease. When you're in your 40s remember us, we fought hard :)

mid-dec: stupid ass
mid-jan: seroconversion
mid-feb: poz
mar 07: cd4 432 (35%) vl 54000
may 07: cd4 399 (28%) vl 27760
jul 07: cd4 403 (26%) vl 99241
oct 07: cd4 353 (24%) vl 29993
jan 08: cd4 332 (26%) vl 33308
mar 08: cd4 392 (23%) vl 75548
jun 08: cd4 325 (27%) vl 45880
oct 08: cd4 197 (20%) vl 154000 <== aids diagnosis
nov 2 08 start Atripla
nov 30 08: cd4 478 (23%) vl 1880 !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
feb 19 09: cd4 398 (24%) vl 430 getting there!
apr 23 09: cd4 604 (29%) vl 50 woohoo :D :D
jul 30 09: cd4 512 (29%) vl undetectable :D :D
may 27 10: cd4 655 (32%) vl undetectable :D :D

Now accepting applications from blowjob ninjas™

Offline Esquare

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Re: HIV: Average Age at Death 45.3 Years
« Reply #112 on: March 18, 2007, 01:06:21 AM »
Those of us who enjoy these topics should feel free to continue creating/discussing them. Those who do not like the topics should feel free to abstain from participating in them. Unpopular topics and threads tend to die an early death :)



Yeah true. Kind of like the invisible hand of Adam Smith on the aidsmeds forums. ;D

Offline allopathicholistic

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Re: HIV: Average Age at Death 45.3 Years
« Reply #113 on: March 18, 2007, 01:11:10 AM »
What exactly qualifies as a "death due to HIV / AIDS " ?  Is that KS or MAC or what? 

I think so.

Seriously good points...  :-\

Offline red_Dragon888

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Re: HIV: Average Age at Death 45.3 Years
« Reply #114 on: March 18, 2007, 03:06:06 AM »
I guess you can ask the newspaper where it got its source.  I guess I been dead for 2.1 years.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=I3ba3lnFHik

“Neither look forward where there is doubt nor backward where there is regret. Look inward and ask not if there is anything o

Offline bear60

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Re: HIV: Average Age at Death 45.3 Years
« Reply #115 on: March 18, 2007, 06:40:58 PM »
As long as there is HIV,  topics like this will appear all the time.  What is important to me is :  statistics do not describe me.
Poz Bear Type in Philadelphia

Offline Central79

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Re: HIV: Average Age at Death 45.3 Years
« Reply #116 on: March 18, 2007, 07:06:25 PM »
I think it's good to talk about this stuff - all (or at least most) of us think about it. How else can you have an idea of what to plan on in the future? Pension or not? Savings or not? Statistics give us an idea, although it's important to remember as many posts in this thread have pointed out, that they describe the behaviour of a group of people, not individuals.

What I would like to point out again, from my post at the beginning of this thread, was wherever this stat came from it is just plain WRONG in terms of working out how long any of us are likely to live. This is the best study I've read about the subject so far:

Survival of persons with and without HIV infection in Denmark, 1995-2005.
Ann Intern Med. 2007 Jan 16;146(2):87-95.

Basically they matched about 4,000 people with HIV each with about 100 HIV negative people and looked at survival between 1995 and 2005 - a timeframe that covers the start of HAART and its gradual implementation and improvement. Because the study had so many people in it, it was very powerful in looking at mortality over short spaces of time. It showed that survival for HIV positive people improved between 1995 and 2005 and there was marked improvement between early HAART and late HAART. They calculated that a 25 year-old infected in 2005 had another 38.9 years to live (dying at 65 ish), provided they didn't catch HCV.

So mouse - chances are you are going to live for a very long time. Although we still do worse than diabetics, and this study shows that, its only modelling for current therapy - and it can only get better.

Anybody who wants to read the study can PM me, and I'll mail it.

M.
Diagnosed January 2006
26/1/06 - 860 (22%), VL > 500,000
24/4/06 - 820 (24.6%), VL 158,000
13/7/06 - 840 (22%), VL 268,000
1/11/06 - 680 (21%), VL 93,100
29/1/07 - 1,020 (27.5%), VL 46,500
15/5/07 - 1,140 (22.8%), VL not done.
13/10/07 - 759 (23.2%), VL 170,000
6/11/07 - 630 (25%), VL 19,324
14/1/08 - 650 (21%), VL 16,192
15/4/08 - 590 (21%), VL 40, 832

Offline Fosbery

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Re: HIV: Average Age at Death 45.3 Years
« Reply #117 on: March 19, 2007, 01:39:34 AM »

I'm new to this and not on meds yet, and I have to say it did make me feel uncomfortable, I'm 42, didn't make me feel too good to know I  have not long to go, well as long as I get to Europe in September, that was the only thing I told myself i had to do before I go.

But I still hope for longer anyway.

Garret.

Offline bear60

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Re: HIV: Average Age at Death 45.3 Years
« Reply #118 on: March 19, 2007, 08:16:38 AM »
Quote Fosbery: "I'm new to this and not on meds yet, and I have to say it did make me feel uncomfortable, I'm 42,......"
Why would you feel that these statistics apply to you? Its higly likely, since you are not on meds yet, that you will survive well past the "average" age at death. Let me know how life looks in 10 years.  Take two aspirin and call me in the morning.
Poz Bear Type in Philadelphia

Offline Ihavehope

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Re: HIV: Average Age at Death 45.3 Years
« Reply #119 on: March 19, 2007, 11:55:59 AM »
I wanna be this old when I die.

Infected: April 2005
12/6/06 - Diagnosed HIV positive
12/19/06 - CD4 = 240  22% VL = 26,300
1/4/07 - CD4 = 200 16% VL = ?
2/9/07 = Started Kaletra/Truvada
3/13/07 = CD4 = 386 22% VL ?

Offline Catman

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Re: HIV: Average Age at Death 45.3 Years
« Reply #120 on: March 19, 2007, 07:33:22 PM »

Basically they matched about 4,000 people with HIV each with about 100 HIV negative people and looked at survival between 1995 and 2005 - a timeframe that covers the start of HAART and its gradual implementation and improvement. Because the study had so many people in it, it was very powerful in looking at mortality over short spaces of time. It showed that survival for HIV positive people improved between 1995 and 2005 and there was marked improvement between early HAART and late HAART. They calculated that a 25 year-old infected in 2005 had another 38.9 years to live (dying at 65 ish), provided they didn't catch HCV.

M.
Now this is more "uplifting" than those other statistics. Now I can "back up" my estimated time of dying to after 50 like I mentioned earlier. That would be at 58.9 for me. Sounds good, but even then I'll still probably be playing with or sharing my pecker...!  ;D


[attachment deleted by admin]
Catman

Meow to the birds
Meow to the tree's
Meow to the end
of this dreadful disease...

Offline jcmiami

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Re: HIV: Average Age at Death 45.3 Years
« Reply #121 on: March 19, 2007, 09:05:21 PM »
OK, I just turned 44 and I have 1.3 years to go. Let's see my B'day was on 1/16 of this year so by 3/16/2008, I will be dead. God, I have to pick out a suit and shoes and a tie and a shirt...get a fake tan...I can't help it....I like to be proactive!!!  ;D
On a serious note, aren't we all dying anyways? Humans are not immortal. We can drop dead right now from a brain aneurysm or heart attack or have an out of control car crash into the room where you are on the computer.
There are so many "variables" to those stats like date of diagnosis, original health of person, drug use and on and on...
Just take each day as it comes - the past is the past and tomorrow is... well... tomorrow AND keep a sense of humour about it all too  ;)

Offline Norman

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Re: HIV: Average Age at Death 45.3 Years
« Reply #122 on: March 21, 2007, 01:26:44 PM »
I am not certain of the origin of the 45.3, but such figures mean very little and do nothing to dissuade my capacity and earnest to take care of myself.
At 50 years of age I stopped the ARV's.  My CD4's are up and VL down.  This is sustainable and at a fraction of the cost of allopathic medicines.

I plan to live a ripe old age without thinking about HIV everday and know and believe there are alternatives to the current regime.

Norman James

Offline maddie

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Re: HIV: Average Age at Death 45.3 Years
« Reply #123 on: March 22, 2007, 05:39:41 PM »
 ::)
don't go by numbers dont let nothing bring you down. Emotions inside you will well up and make you ill, Do the best that you can and live life to the full. If you sit there waiting for it and waiting for the dreaded stat figure to come up thats too sad!!!
'I see your heartache, your eyes say it all, will always be there for you!'  mum

Offline antibody

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Re: HIV: Average Age at Death 45.3 Years
« Reply #124 on: March 22, 2007, 05:45:34 PM »
oh just put me outta misery now please!
Timbuk      <50/ 794  CD4 10/06 
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Started Atripla  7/14/06
Switched to boosted Reyataz Truvada 3/28/07

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