up and down

[racingmind]

Just got my latest numbers, and they were not as good as last time (when I had a nice upswing).  This sucks, I hate having to go through this every couple months.  I guess this is the way life is going to be, and there is not a damn thing I can do about it.  My doctor told me that the chance of getting infected from anal sex (receptive) is .01%.  Just my luck to defy the odds.  Sometimes I wonder if I'm just destined for bad luck in everything I do.  I know that sounds pathetic, but it fits because that's how I feel at the moment.

[ACinKC]

Anal sex has a .01% chance?  Your doctor is a moron.

[racingmind]

thanks AC, I didn't think I could feel worse...

do you have other information?  I love to hear it...

btw, are you a doctor?

[ACinKC]

Not meant to make you feel bad.

But come on.  The chances of contracting HIV through unprotected anal sex with an HIV+ person is way higher than .01%, especially being the bottom!

No I am not a Doctor.  And maybe you should consider switching docs if this is what he is telling you.  No one asks for HIV, it doesnt target the unlucky.  It is a virus, and one you can live a full and productive life with.  Are there drawbacks?  YES.  But things could be worse.  My cousin who was one month older than me developed brain cancer and died at 32.  Im willing to bet he would have traded me. 

I will see what I can find in regards to statistics even though I dont like setting the "odds" for HIV.  It really does only take one time.

Like I said, I am not trying to make you feel bad.  Just trying to get you the correct information.  And .01% is not correct.

[ACinKC]

thanks AC, I didn't think I could feel worse...

do you have other information?  I love to hear it...

btw, are you a doctor?

I was suprised by my findings.  .05-3% chance.  But, that isnt taking into consideration other factors as listed below.

Anal sex carries the highest risk, especially for the receptive partner. The risk of transmission in unprotected anal intercourse, based on a study of men, is estimated to be between 5 and 30 per 1,000 exposures for the receptive partner. However, all of these figures very likely underestimate—perhaps severely—the average transmission probability per sexual act. They are generally based on studies of transmission within discordant couples—couples in which one partner is HIV-positive and the other is HIV-negative. Couples that are discordant for a very brief period are not captured in these samples; thus, the most infectious individuals are likely to be excluded.

A transmission rate per partnership, not taking into account the length of partnership, might be a more realistic measure of the risks of sexual  transmission of HIV within relationships.4 A review of studies of per-partner transmission rates among heterosexuals in the United States and Western Europe found an average transmission probability of about 23 percent from men to women. (And would I think it would be even higher than 23% for male to male anal sex as the anus isnt nearly as tough as the vagina!)

http://www.worldbank.org/aids-econ/confront/confrontfull/chapter2/chp2sub2.html

[racingmind]

I was only repeating what I was told (unless I got it wrong--which I don't think I did because I repeated it in disbelief myself).  

And no, I don't think my doctor is a moron. He has been in the infectious disease field (specializing in HIV) for the past 15 years and is one of the most highly recommended specialists in the area where I live.  No, I don't think that he is the best doctor in the world, but I trust him to give me reliable information and guidance where my health is concerned.

[Matty the Damned]

And this, lads, is what happens when you get into the numbers game about HIV risk. These numbers (such as .01% or 3% or whatthefuckever) mean three-quarters of bugger all in the real world.

Unprotected anal sex is a risk for HIV. It should be enough to know that.

MtD

[ACinKC]

I was only repeating what I was told (unless I got it wrong--which I don't think I did because I repeated it in disbelief myself).  

And no, I don't think my doctor is a moron. He has been in the infectious disease field (specializing in HIV) for the past 15 years and is one of the most highly recommended specialists in the area where I live.  No, I don't think that he is the best doctor in the world, but I trust him to give me reliable information and guidance where my health is concerned.

And honestly, that is all that matters.  I thought the % would be in the teens at the least.  I guess I should be somewhat thankful to you for bringing this up and allowing me to educate myself a little bit further.  I wasnt as right as I thought.  And its good information to know.  So thank you.  And I apologize if I offended ya.

[keyite]

I know how you feel. I'll be going tomorrow to collect my latest set of lab results and it just fills me with dread. Like you say, there's really nothing you can do to influence the outcome. This never-ending uncertainty and powerlessness really has been the hardest lesson HIV has taught me. Here's hoping next time will provide another upswing.

[racingmind]

No sweat AC.....it's just that no one likes to hear that the doctor they put their trust in with something as serious as HIV infection is a moron.  I'm glad that we both have the correct information now.  And Matty has a definite point...ultimately the numbers don't matter, our actions do.

[ACinKC]

Absolutely correct racing!  It sucks no matter HOW we spin it.

[Miss Philicia]

I agree that the numbers issue is BS.  If you're a black gay male bottom living in NYC you're chances are MUCH higher that you will get infected... there are too many variables and averaging it out to an abstraction is disingenuous in my opinion, especially from a professional to a patient.  I don't obviously know what the context of the conversation was with your doctor so I'm not going to issue some Pearl of Wisdom advising you to find a new doctor.

As far as you new numbers, etc.... well hey, you're not on meds.  Of COURSE your numbers will go down.  At least you didn't begin the game with 20 t-cells though, so you're already at a game advantage, right?   But you're right... you should learn to get used to the roller coaster as it's going to be your future life.  Yes, it's hard not to obsess about it but it's good to learn how to come to grips with it.  I no longer stress on lab numbers ever, and have not for a long time as early in my diagnosis the were always fluctuating.  One your treatment is worked out you will hopefully experience upward trends, though they may be slow and inevitable you will have some dips, blips and bounces... and you may even have extreme shockers and have to change regimens multiple times.

[jack]

did you know that if you were in car wreck in 2005 there was .006 chance you would die?
Did you know that most here say it is not possible for you to get hiv by performing oral sex on an infected person?
Fuck these idiotic numbers.

[AIDS2HIV]

especially in HIV......the number games are simply guesses......usually a just a pixel in comparison, of the REAL picture*

Just because someone paints a pretty picture doesnt mean its genuine...