Author Topic: Study Estimates HIV Is Transmitted During 1 in 900 Acts of Unprotected Heterosex (Read 6120 times)

tednlou2 · « **on:** January 25, 2012, 02:27:27 am »

If this needs to be moved to Research, please do so. I posted it here, since this is discussed fairly regularly in this forum. About these studies-- I know more heterosexuals, worldwide, are affected by HIV, so I understand why there are more studies on heterosexual sex. However, it seems homosexual sex is always a mystery. In many of these studies, they will say they don't have good figures or studies on homosexual sex. Can they not get enough reliable data or participation from us gays?

http://www.thebody.com/content/65486/study-estimates-hiv-is-transmitted-during-1-in-900.html

spacebarsux · « **Reply #1 on:** January 25, 2012, 05:13:49 am »

These statistics make me want to throw up.

Ann · « **Reply #2 on:** January 25, 2012, 06:37:06 am »

Those kind of stats are rubbish and I wish the so-called "experts" would knock it off already. They serve no good purpose when it comes to prevention efforts. I mean, even if this one in 900 is correct, who's to say which time in those 900 it's going to happen? It could happen the first time, the 289th time, the 538th time, or the 900th time.

What bothers me is that stats like that can have the effect of lulling people into a false sense of security.

spacebarsux · « **Reply #3 on:** January 25, 2012, 06:46:41 am »

Quote from: Ann on January 25, 2012, 06:37:06 am

Those kind of stats are rubbish and I wish the so-called "experts" would knock it off already. They serve no good purpose when it comes to prevention efforts. I mean, even if this one in 900 is correct, who's to say which time in those 900 it's going to happen? It could happen the first time, the 289th time, the 538th time, or the 900th time.

What bothers me is that stats like that can have the effect of lulling people into a false sense of security.

Ezzzzaklly!!

1 in 900 will come back to haunt you when "that one" is YOU.

Valmont · « **Reply #4 on:** January 25, 2012, 08:51:28 am »

Pfffffffffffffff, these statistic are the worst and make people taking risks... They should not be published ever. Who has done it? How?

?? I don´t even think these numbers are real.... The same happen with statistic about other ways how to be infected...

I´ve been exposed only one time and got it, and I´m probably not the only one...

Hellraiser · « **Reply #5 on:** January 25, 2012, 09:53:52 am »

I don't think you guys understand statistics. Yes it might be 1 in 900 but that is a relatively high number, think about how many people are going at it each day and while 1 in 900 may sound like an easy to avoid number to you that would make it quite common. They are releasing statistics because statistically this is the conclusion their research came to.

also: "The exact risk of HIV transmission during a specific activity has always been a difficult number to pin down, and some experts were quick to note that the "1 in 900" figure should not be regarded as carved in stone. "The study provides a number that people may quote as to the risk of infection per episode of intercourse, but this ranged considerably," said David Wohl, M.D."

buginme2 · « **Reply #6 on:** January 25, 2012, 10:24:21 am »

Something was lost in the translation from the actual study to what was reported in the media. The results of the study were:

Conclusions. Modifiable risk factors for HIV-1 transmission were plasma HIV-1 RNA level and condom use, and, in HIV-1–uninfected partners, herpes simplex virus 2 infection, genital ulcers, Trichomonas vaginalis, vaginitis or cervicitis, and male circumcision.

The study was completed valid and not at all "rubbish" (and thats not just because it was completed at the University of Washington Bioethics Dept -woot woot). Sometimes you cant control which part of the story the media picks up on and runs with.

Cosmicdancer · « **Reply #7 on:** January 25, 2012, 10:31:18 am »

Given that this 1 in 900 figure is based on a study of unprotected sex between serodiscordant couples who are not on meds, it is actually a fairly low figure. The danger is that some people will conclude that they can beat the odds and not worry about using condoms consistently. If there's any benefit to these figures, perhaps it will provide some comfort to the OCD people who write in to the POZ forums that they are feeling suicidal after having a brief unprotected incident while with a sex worker of unknown status, and are convinced they are now infected.

I see some value in these statistics given the reality of criminal prosecution of people with HIV for alleged non-disclosure and unprotected sex. The finding that being undetectable reduces risk by 96% during unprotected sex would mean, in the case of heterosexuals, one unprotected sexual encounter would carry a risk of 1 in 22,500. I think a little less hysteria would be a good thing.

spacebarsux · « **Reply #8 on:** January 25, 2012, 02:02:14 pm »

Well Hellraiser, Bug and Cosmicdancer the real crux of the matter is that:

1. the message of always wearing condoms for sexual intercourse does not change.

2. Even one unprotected exposure is enough for transmission to occur.

So given the above, all these statistics are just intellectual masturbation at best and (like Ann said) may lull people into a false sense of security at worst.

jason1972 · « **Reply #9 on:** January 25, 2012, 02:18:51 pm »

The sad point in all of this is noone needs become HIV+ it is preventable If younger generation would wake up!!

Even 1 is to many to have to go through what i have been through and i agree people that put these out for the public to read..As a young kid i always thought it will not be me i am to smart I only have sex with woman I am not gay so it wont be me..WOW was that thinking wrong my young dumb ass i was..SO WAKE up the younger people out there

denb45 · « **Reply #10 on:** January 25, 2012, 02:24:56 pm »

Quote from: tednlou2 on January 25, 2012, 02:27:27 am

http://www.thebody.com/content/65486/study-estimates-hiv-is-transmitted-during-1-in-900.html

RUBBISH

I agree with miss Ann

SANJUANDUDE · « **Reply #11 on:** January 25, 2012, 02:28:16 pm »

When I was bartending in a gay bar, unfortunately, I would be several persons who would literally boast about having unprotected sex. When I would ask why they would take the chance, the response on more than one occasion was, "it's easier to be positive." True story!!!!!!

http://timehasshownme.com

newt · « **Reply #12 on:** January 25, 2012, 02:44:14 pm »

People take comfort in population level risk estimates which don't really apply to them individually...ho hum

I always liked this report:

Common estimate of heterosexual HIV transmission risk sometimes far too low
http://i-base.info/htb/44

- matt

bocker3 · « **Reply #13 on:** January 25, 2012, 06:04:56 pm »

Newt hit the problem right on the head. The average person reads statistics and think they apply the THEM -- when they almost always are referring to a population. An individuals risk is impossible to quantitate because there are so many variables that come into play. Thus, the "rubbish" piece is presenting a scientific finding to an unscientific audience who gets to interpret it as they see fit.

Mike

mecch · « **Reply #14 on:** January 25, 2012, 06:29:51 pm »

I've had sex more than 900 times! I bet I've had sex with over 900 people. I had unprotected sex less than 900 times with 10ish women. I have had unprotected sex only dozens of times with men. Would someone please tell me what my risk... oh wait a minute darn I've already got it.

Ann · « **Reply #15 on:** January 26, 2012, 07:53:25 am »

Quote from: bocker3 on January 25, 2012, 06:04:56 pm

Newt hit the problem right on the head. The average person reads statistics and think they apply the THEM -- when they almost always are referring to a population. An individuals risk is impossible to quantitate because there are so many variables that come into play. Thus, the "rubbish" piece is presenting a scientific finding to an unscientific audience who gets to interpret it as they see fit.

Mike

Yep, that's exactly what we see going on over in Am I when people get hold of those types of stats and that's why I think it's rubbish. Does my head in.

Andy Velez · « **Reply #16 on:** January 26, 2012, 10:18:43 am »

"Statistics" can be dredged up (or created) to support pretty much any point someone wants to make.

That's why we focus on specific details to evaluate any particular situation someone is concerned about.

jkinatl2 · « **Reply #17 on:** January 26, 2012, 10:23:18 am »

Quote from: Andy Velez on January 26, 2012, 10:18:43 am

"Statistics" can be dredged up (or created) to support pretty much any point someone wants to make.

That's why we focus on specific details to evaluate any particular situation someone is concerned about.

Exactly. Each incident is unique, even among committed partners.

LM · « **Reply #18 on:** January 26, 2012, 12:37:13 pm »

I agree, these statistics do more harm than good. In my case, I knew about them, I knew how "hard" it was to get HIV when I got careless. I thought "what are the odds of it happening to me?". Well, here I am.

RapidRod · « **Reply #19 on:** January 26, 2012, 08:55:56 pm »

That is exactly why I quit having unprotected heterosexual sex years ago.

Forums Index

Welcome

Author Topic: Study Estimates HIV Is Transmitted During 1 in 900 Acts of Unprotected Heterosex (Read 6120 times)