What are the odds?

[whatstheodds]

I am HIV positive male who recently had vaginal intercourse with my girlfriend it was the first time having sex since I became infected in November of 2010. at the end of intercourse I felt the condom break, I immediately pulled out (less than 5 seconds) I fear that I may have transmitted the virus to my partner. But the lexapro I'm on to control anxiety prevents me from having "pre-cum" and during this intercourse I did not ejaculate. I know there is such thing as no risk and she will be tested in 90 days but would this qualify as a likely source of transmission or a warning that more precautions need to be taken?

[RapidRod]

You have posted in the wrong forum.

[whatstheodds]

What forum should this go under?

[Andy Velez]

Hi,

There are a couple of choices as to which category to move your thread to. I decided to put it here because this is a concern shared by many living with  HIV and their partners.

The risk of transmission to your gf during this incident is on the low side. It was a single incident without ejaculation and she was protected until the condom broke. From my experience I would say the likelihood is that she is going to test negative at 3 months, which is when she can get a conclusive result. She can if she wishes get tested at 6 weeks because all but the smallest number of those who are going to seroconvert will have done so by that point.

For future reference make sure you are using fresh condoms with water-based lube and ones that fit you properly.

Given what you have reported I think she has a good chance of testing negative.

[whatstheodds]

I appreciate it. It took me so long to have sex after learning in Feb 2011 of my infection that once I came to grips my priority was to make sure it ended with me knowing how painful it is and for the first time I have sex to have the condom fail just seems like back luck. My most recent VL was 2,600 and I start meds next month I just feel bad because it only took one exposure for me to become infected so it just makes me that extra paranoid.

[Theyer]

I don.t think your paranoid , your being responsible / caring
t

[John2038]

Hi whatstheodds,

You are not saying if you have others STDs.

The lower the VL, the lower is the risk.
The Swiss Statement study has estimate the per act infectiosity risk VS. the VL measured in the semens, and the transmission rate per 100 persons per years VS. the HIV-RNA VL.



Note: VL 2600 cp/ml = 3.4 log 10.

As many variables impact the risk and as such it is very difficult to place an exact number or give you exact odds. Globally speaking, estimates range from 1/1'000 to 1/100'000, again depending on variables such as viral load,  STDs, etc. To be noted that the Swiss Study has not identify any cases of transmission when the HIV-RNA was < 400 cp/ml (despite it doesn't means it can't happen).

You may want to read about the PEP (Post-Exposure Prophylaxis) to be taken up to 48h/72h after the risk has happen, the earlier the better.
In particular if your are having other(s) STD(s). The important thing to remember is that it only takes once regardless of the odds. A doc may advice you if you or your partner feel doing so.

Personnally, I would give a call to a doc to get his opinion, and advise. I wouldn't be worried otherwise.

J.

[whatstheodds]

I have no other STD's and didn't think to include that in my initial post.