CD4 Progression Question

[JohnD99]

Hello everyone .

A dear friend of mine was diagnosed in February with probable infection in January. 

At that time, her CD4 was 596 (30%).
Fast forward 8 months, her CD4 is now 588 (25%). 

So in the last 8 months her CD4 has only gone down by 8.

Is it accurate to state that her condition seems to be progressing at a fairly slow pace, based on the fact that she has gone down only 1 "point" per month in the last 8 months? 

Might one (somewhat) accurately hope that if this continues at this pace, she wouldn't hit 300-350 for another 15 to 20 years?

Thanks. 

[Ann]

No, it doesn't really work like that. Her numbers are stable and she has not really declined much at all, at least going by her absolute CD4 numbers. The CD4% is normally the more stable number and hers has decreased by 5 from 30% to 25%. 25% is still a very good number.

The absolute CD4 number can vary by as much as 100 points in the course of a single day, so the change of 8 points is not significant at all and cannot be used to project a prognosis. Two results in eight months isn't really much to go on anyway. She needs to track her numbers over time - more time that that.

[JohnD99]

Thanks Ann - can you tell me why my post about Quercetin was deleted from the nutrition forum?   Whether or not I qualify to post in that section, the information was helpful and important for people to know about.  It seems strange that someone would just delete the entire thread.  It contained nothing that violates any forum rules.

[mecch]

Hello everyone .

A dear friend of mine was diagnosed in February with probable infection in January. 

At that time, her CD4 was 596 (30%).
Fast forward 8 months, her CD4 is now 588 (25%). 

So in the last 8 months her CD4 has only gone down by 8.

Is it accurate to state that her condition seems to be progressing at a fairly slow pace, based on the fact that she has gone down only 1 "point" per month in the last 8 months? 

Might one (somewhat) accurately hope that if this continues at this pace, she wouldn't hit 300-350 for another 15 to 20 years?

Thanks.

 Eventually your friend might have steady counts for a long time and suddenly the bottom could fall out.  It would be foolish to make a prediction about an individual's experience based on statistics that tell us about populations, not individuals. 

Its 2012 and it seems unrealistic and unfounded to project someone having a slow, steady consistent CD4 decline over 20 years, nor that the time for treatment is going to be 300-350, which is, I suppose, why you bother mentioning that number. 
Who knows where we will be in 5 years, or 10 years. What treatments will be available, and when medical science will recommend treatment.

By the way, the only known effective treatment that stops HIV replication, in 2012, is  HAART.....

[Ann]

Thanks Ann - can you tell me why my post about Quercetin was deleted from the nutrition forum?   

Yes - it's a load of quackery, as I told you in a PM. Yes, I did google. The studies I read were full of "may", "might" and "possibly". That means it's full of $&!£.

Don't you think those of us who have been living with this stuff for years would know about something like this if there was any validity to it? You might be able to get away with playing doctor with a hill person in Thailand, but it's not gonna fly here. OK?

Ann