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Poll

I never started a poll here but thought it might be a starting point for HIV+ to express their wisdom or sheer guesses.

obama will win by less than 10 electoral votes.
4 (17.4%)
romney will win by less than 10 electoral votes.
1 (4.3%)
obama will win by more than 10 electoral votes.
14 (60.9%)
romney will win by more than 10 electoral votes.
4 (17.4%)
bugs bunny will sweep all 50 states
0 (0%)

Total Members Voted: 23

Voting closed: November 02, 2012, 05:28:46 pm

Author Topic: electoral vote predictions 2012  (Read 74215 times)

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

Offline Miss Philicia

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Re: electoral vote predictions 2012
« Reply #100 on: November 04, 2012, 07:34:48 pm »
25 swing state polls came out today. Romney only won four of them.

link for Guilhermina so he can cry

ps: don't let a twink hustler/escort steal your wallet on this trip like in DC! *kisses*
« Last Edit: November 04, 2012, 07:36:29 pm by Miss Philicia »
"I’ve slept with enough men to know that I’m not gay"

Offline buginme2

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Re: electoral vote predictions 2012
« Reply #101 on: November 04, 2012, 08:23:46 pm »
7 hour voting lines in.......Florida

Voter suppression at its best, in AMERICA.  South Florida is voting like a third world country (says Ed Schultz who just had a large segment about this on his show today)

It's just so amazing to me that the people tollerate that.  That people are allowing that.  Voter suppression = Romney as President.

« Last Edit: November 04, 2012, 09:05:28 pm by buginme2 »
Don't be fancy, just get dancey

Offline buginme2

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Re: electoral vote predictions 2012
« Reply #102 on: November 04, 2012, 08:30:17 pm »
Oh and for everyone in Florida, ya know in other states you can go online, print out a ballot, mail it in.   Then you go online 2 days later, log on and the computer tells you that your ballot has been received and counted or if there is a problem why so you can fix it.  Just saying, people of Florida and the other states that are like it shouldn't tollerate 7 hour lines. 

Or as in one county in south Florida today have them shut and lock the doors at the polling place while there were still thousands of people outside.


Ok sorry people, rant over

I need a Xanax now
« Last Edit: November 04, 2012, 08:33:26 pm by buginme2 »
Don't be fancy, just get dancey

Offline Miss Philicia

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Re: electoral vote predictions 2012
« Reply #103 on: November 04, 2012, 08:45:46 pm »
Pa-leez. the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania doesn't even have early voting. We're Old Skool! And to obtain an absentee ballot they're strict and demand proof that you'll be absent from your municipality.

Fortunately my polling place is a quick 2 block walk away and never have I lined up behind more than one other person.
"I’ve slept with enough men to know that I’m not gay"

Offline mitch777

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Re: electoral vote predictions 2012
« Reply #104 on: November 04, 2012, 08:53:59 pm »
wumpy,
where are you when we need you? ;)

packing, have fun!
« Last Edit: November 04, 2012, 08:58:24 pm by mitch777 »
33 years hiv+ with a curtsy.

Offline wolfter

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Re: electoral vote predictions 2012
« Reply #105 on: November 04, 2012, 09:18:33 pm »
Pa-leez. the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania doesn't even have early voting. We're Old Skool! And to obtain an absentee ballot they're strict and demand proof that you'll be absent from your municipality.

Fortunately my polling place is a quick 2 block walk away and never have I lined up behind more than one other person.

Although Ohio has early voting, I never use it either.  I never have to wait but a mere few minutes.  And I have a polling location a short hobble for me, even on crutches.

Being honest is not wronging others, continuing the dishonesty is.

Offline wolfter

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Re: electoral vote predictions 2012
« Reply #106 on: November 04, 2012, 09:19:16 pm »
wumpy,
where are you when we need you? ;)

packing, have fun!

He indicated he won't be around til Tuesday.  He'll be busy for a while replying to all the hate. ;D
Being honest is not wronging others, continuing the dishonesty is.

Offline Miss Philicia

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Re: electoral vote predictions 2012
« Reply #107 on: November 04, 2012, 09:57:25 pm »
Also for Guilhermina, today's national polls are all in:

Of eleven poll releases, three ties, three Obama +1, and one + .4 lead for Romney. Three more have Obama +3.

(CNN) Tie,
(Reuters) Obama +1,
(YouGov) Obama +2,
(ABC/WaPo) Obama +1,
(Pew) Obama +3,
(Zogby) Romney +.4,
(Rand) Obama +3.2,
(Rasmussen) Tie,
(NBC/WSJ) Obama +1,
(PPP) Obama +3,
(Politico/GWU) Tie

If you just do a simple average of these you get Obama +1.25
"I’ve slept with enough men to know that I’m not gay"

Offline Miss Philicia

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Re: electoral vote predictions 2012
« Reply #108 on: November 04, 2012, 09:59:30 pm »
He indicated he won't be around til Tuesday.  He'll be busy for a while replying to all the hate. ;D

He owns an iPhone, but for some reason it doesn't function properly and display the sender's name of a text message, and now I guess he doesn't shell out for a data plan (or something). I guess he just likes to look like he has an iPhone to be trendy (or something).
"I’ve slept with enough men to know that I’m not gay"

Offline Miss Philicia

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Re: electoral vote predictions 2012
« Reply #109 on: November 05, 2012, 11:52:34 am »
Now that I had time to look up the numbers, I wanted to revisit buginme's statement about West Coast vote-by-mail versus East Coast that doesn't particularly do that. I'm not trying to say which is preferable, but just that all things considered it doesn't amount to much -- the current fiascos in Ohio and Florida aren't due to the superiority of one system over the other, it's that politicians in those two states have screwed things up in an effort to screw over largely urban, largely minority, largely Dem voters.

So let's compare Oregon's voter turnout in 2008 vs. Pennsylvania's, as a comparison of the least restrictive (Oregon was the first vote-by-mail state in the US in 1998) to one that mostly just votes on actual election day. Results: Oregon had a 62.9% turnout and Pennsylvania had 63.7%, a somewhat counter-intuitive result don't you think?
"I’ve slept with enough men to know that I’m not gay"

Offline buginme2

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Re: electoral vote predictions 2012
« Reply #110 on: November 05, 2012, 02:50:55 pm »
Curious why you chose to compare Oregon with Penn, if you compare Washington State with Penn:

2008 Washington State turnout was 84.61% versus Penn 63%.

Every state is unique, my point is the government should be making it easier to vote not more difficult.  Florida and Ohio and others are clearly suppressing votes fromthe middle and working class.  My issue is that it seems (I could be wrong as I am about as far away from Florida as you can get in this country) but no one is throwing a fit about it. 

Shit, in Seattle people will take to the streets and protest for much less egregious wrong doings.  I dont see any push back from the people down there.  Why?

Romney will win Florida, and it is very likely that it will be due to voter supression.  In the United States thats enough for a revolution in my book.


Don't be fancy, just get dancey

Offline Miss Philicia

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Re: electoral vote predictions 2012
« Reply #111 on: November 05, 2012, 03:46:55 pm »
I chose Oregon because I know (and stated) that they've had the mail in system in place the longest. And per wikipedia (scroll down to "Anaylsis" and then results section there) Washington's turnout was 62.2%, not 84.61%, so you actually had a lower turnout than Oregon.

The issue is partisan shenanigans with polling hours, number of polling places, etc. targeting certain voting areas within a state, not the method of voting. The data would support my assertion.
« Last Edit: November 05, 2012, 03:48:38 pm by Miss Philicia »
"I’ve slept with enough men to know that I’m not gay"

Offline buginme2

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Re: electoral vote predictions 2012
« Reply #112 on: November 05, 2012, 03:53:14 pm »

The issue is partisan shenanigans with polling hours, number of polling places, etc. targeting certain voting areas within a state, not the method of voting. The data would support my assertion.

I agree with this


The 84% figure I obtained from the washington state gov website
http://www.sos.wa.gov/office/osos_news.aspx?i=z7Qz3D6Pf17j%2FygUm5PXhg%3D%3D
Don't be fancy, just get dancey

Offline GSOgymrat

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Re: electoral vote predictions 2012
« Reply #113 on: November 05, 2012, 04:02:18 pm »
Speaking of voter turnout, what is your opinion of compulsory voting?

Offline leatherman

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Re: electoral vote predictions 2012
« Reply #114 on: November 05, 2012, 04:33:35 pm »
Speaking of voter turnout, what is your opinion of compulsory voting?
it should be the law

and just as I was whining a few yrs ago about "why can't I vote electronically?"; now I want to know what I can vote online??
leatherman (aka Michael)

We were standing all alone
You were leaning in to speak to me
Acting like a mover shaker
Dancing to Madonna then you kissed me
And I think about it all the time
- Darren Hayes, "Chained to You"

Offline Miss Philicia

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Re: electoral vote predictions 2012
« Reply #115 on: November 05, 2012, 04:47:02 pm »
Before wanting something like compulsory voting or non-in person voting, I would prefer that gerrymandering be resolved -- meaning 10 year redistricting by non-partisan means.
"I’ve slept with enough men to know that I’m not gay"

Offline mitch777

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Re: electoral vote predictions 2012
« Reply #116 on: November 05, 2012, 04:57:28 pm »
i'm not so sure.
i know that recently in american politics, the republican party has wrapped itself in the term freedom. i consider myself very liberal and the mandatory vote concept goes beyond my comfort zone.
if you don't vote and are unaware of what is at stake you will suffer the consequences.
where would one draw the line on the "exceptions" to the rule?

i DO however support a national set of guidlines/law to prevent the obvious ability of any party to keep people from voting.
33 years hiv+ with a curtsy.

Offline wolfter

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Re: electoral vote predictions 2012
« Reply #117 on: November 05, 2012, 05:06:19 pm »
Speaking of voter turnout, what is your opinion of compulsory voting?

And allow the ignorant minority the ability to potentially change the course of American history?  I cringe at the thought of these sheeple being required to vote.

Wolfie

Don't want to spark another debate, but both parties were accused of voter suppression in Ohio.  It could have backfired when the DNC filed suit to suppress military personell from having additional means of voting because of the very nature of their deployments and such.  These are the types of issues you'll hear a group of military veterans sitting around their clubs, drinking beer and bitching about it.
Being honest is not wronging others, continuing the dishonesty is.

Offline bocker3

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Re: electoral vote predictions 2012
« Reply #118 on: November 05, 2012, 05:52:39 pm »
Before wanting something like compulsory voting or non-in person voting, I would prefer that gerrymandering be resolved -- meaning 10 year redistricting by non-partisan means.

I'd say screw "districts" entirely.  Why not elect US Reps via statewide voting -- same number you have today, but statewide.  The districts make no sense as there is no increase in number of Congress people based on population, so some reps represent far more citizens than others.  This would not only end the need for serpentine redistricting gimmicks, where politicians get to pick voters instead of the other way around, it would ALSO stop the influx of extremists (on both sides) from getting into Congress.  So many districts are so slanted to one party, that all they need to do is pander to their sides extremes and win the primary (and therefore, the election).  We see so many Tea Party members in the House, yet few in the Senate -- why?  Tea Party candidates have a tough time winning at the state level (Can you say, "I am not a witch................")

Mike

Offline Miss Philicia

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Re: electoral vote predictions 2012
« Reply #119 on: November 06, 2012, 01:59:05 am »
Final Nate Silver/fivethirtyeight forecast (updated at 1:43 AM, based on all of Monday's polls): 92% chance of Obama winning, 315.2 electoral votes, 50.9% popular vote

Also, First-ever tie in Dixville Notch's midnight vote
« Last Edit: November 06, 2012, 02:17:33 am by Miss Philicia »
"I’ve slept with enough men to know that I’m not gay"

Offline buginme2

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Re: electoral vote predictions 2012
« Reply #120 on: November 06, 2012, 06:44:13 am »
If Nate is wrong that will end my nerd crush on him. 
Don't be fancy, just get dancey

Offline bocker3

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Re: electoral vote predictions 2012
« Reply #121 on: November 06, 2012, 07:20:44 am »
Off to vote and, hopefully, help put Virginia in the Obama column!!

Offline Jeff G

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Re: electoral vote predictions 2012
« Reply #122 on: November 06, 2012, 07:39:15 am »
If Nate is wrong that will end my nerd crush on him.

I'm thinking the same . I have a nerd crush on Nate but if he called this election wrong its over between us  ;) .
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Offline wolfter

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Re: electoral vote predictions 2012
« Reply #123 on: November 06, 2012, 10:38:57 am »
Just voted and had no wait at all.  Guess there is a benefit to living in rural America.  Kinda nice to walk in and have every poll worker call you by your first name and already verify that you're registered. 

But as my proud Republican cousin pointed out on FB, it'll be busy this evening when all the hardworking people get off work and have that small window of opportunity to vote.   ;D
Being honest is not wronging others, continuing the dishonesty is.

Offline Miss Philicia

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Re: electoral vote predictions 2012
« Reply #124 on: November 06, 2012, 12:06:39 pm »
Get ready for the return of the Fox News generated New Black Panther election scandal.
"I’ve slept with enough men to know that I’m not gay"

Offline Jeff G

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Re: electoral vote predictions 2012
« Reply #125 on: November 06, 2012, 12:28:46 pm »
Get ready for the return of the Fox News generated New Black Panther election scandal.

Its to be expected . My mom called me to tell me that the voting machines were going to rigged to cast ballots for President Obama no matter how you vote . I asked her where she heard this at and she said it was on the "news " . Keep in mind my mom has Alzheimer's , so go easy on her .   
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Offline Miss Philicia

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Re: electoral vote predictions 2012
« Reply #126 on: November 06, 2012, 12:40:00 pm »
Somehow I doubt that Fox News bothers to inform their viewers that the rest home where the (lone, unarmed) New Black Panther showed up is about 95% populated by African Americans, as is the surrounding neighborhood.
"I’ve slept with enough men to know that I’m not gay"

Offline Jeff G

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Re: electoral vote predictions 2012
« Reply #127 on: November 06, 2012, 12:43:03 pm »
My first thought when you posted that was Black Panthers have to vote also so big whiff too Fox news
HIV 101 - Basics
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Offline phildinftlaudy

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Re: electoral vote predictions 2012
« Reply #128 on: November 06, 2012, 03:56:11 pm »
Done voting -

took me one hour.. that's it --- and yes, I am in Florida (Miami)

Thing is, during early voting there were only 20 voting sites open

On Election Day, there are 500 sites open...

Thus, I would like to thank all Floridians who voted early and cleared the way for me. Your patriotism is both appreciated and duly noted.  ;)
September 13, 2008 - diagnosed +
Labs:
Date    CD4    %   VL     Date  CD4  %   VL
10/08  636    35  510   9/09 473  38 2900  12/4/09 Atripla
12/09  540    30    60   
12/10  740    41  <48   
8/11    667    36  <20  
03/12  1,041  42  <20
05/12  1,241  47  <20
08/12   780    37  <20
11/12   549    35  <20
02/12  1,102  42  <20
11/12   549    35  <20

Offline Miss Philicia

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Re: electoral vote predictions 2012
« Reply #129 on: November 06, 2012, 04:04:47 pm »
Just voted and had no wait at all.  Guess there is a benefit to living in rural America. 

Just voted and had no wait at all.  Guess there is a benefit to living in urban America, because I only had to walk 800 feet to do this.

self-portrait of polling place w/"Obama" crayon grafitti (no Black Panters spotted!)

« Last Edit: November 06, 2012, 04:12:40 pm by Miss Philicia »
"I’ve slept with enough men to know that I’m not gay"

Offline bocker3

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Re: electoral vote predictions 2012
« Reply #130 on: November 06, 2012, 06:02:58 pm »
Stood in line for 90 mins this morning.  In 11 years, I have never waited longer than 25 mins (in 2008).  My precinct is very heavily Democrat (in the 70%+ range), so I think this is a good harbinger for the President.  If turnout is heavy in VA -- I don't see Romney taking it -- nor -- our Senate seat going to the already failed George Allen.

M

Offline tednlou2

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Re: electoral vote predictions 2012
« Reply #131 on: November 06, 2012, 06:42:58 pm »
On phone, so didn't check if this was posted already.  A Florida voter records how vote for Obama registers for Romney.  I don't trust Florida or the voting machine companies. 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mk4CjzI236A&feature=youtube_gdata_player

Offline phildinftlaudy

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Re: electoral vote predictions 2012
« Reply #132 on: November 06, 2012, 07:15:03 pm »
My understanding is that this happened in PA (??)
At least that is what they had on CNN.
September 13, 2008 - diagnosed +
Labs:
Date    CD4    %   VL     Date  CD4  %   VL
10/08  636    35  510   9/09 473  38 2900  12/4/09 Atripla
12/09  540    30    60   
12/10  740    41  <48   
8/11    667    36  <20  
03/12  1,041  42  <20
05/12  1,241  47  <20
08/12   780    37  <20
11/12   549    35  <20
02/12  1,102  42  <20
11/12   549    35  <20

Offline J.R.E.

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Re: electoral vote predictions 2012
« Reply #133 on: November 06, 2012, 07:35:53 pm »


Around 8:00 this morning, this robo message went out from the supervisor of elections in Pinellas county , Florida.  The call was instructing people to vote Wednesday:


http://www.baynews9.com/content/news/baynews9/video.html?clip=http://static.baynews9.com/newsvideo/bn9/web_video/CG%20pinco%20robocall%205p%20SOT.f4v&vtitle=Pinellas%20voters%20receive%20robo-call%20advising%20%27vote%20tomorrow%27




Ray



Current Meds ; Viramune / Epzicom Eliquis, Diltiazem. Pravastatin 80mg, Ezetimibe. UPDATED 2/18/24
 Tested positive in 1985,.. In October of 2003, My t-cell count was 16, Viral load was over 500,000, Percentage at that time was 5%. I started on  HAART on October 24th, 2003.

 As of Oct 2nd, 2023, Viral load Undetectable.
CD 4 @676 /  CD4 % @ 18 %
Lymphocytes,absolute-3815 (within range)


72 YEARS YOUNG

Offline wolfter

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Re: electoral vote predictions 2012
« Reply #134 on: November 06, 2012, 07:53:28 pm »
Early results show the Repubs are sweeping  Ohio.  :(


edited to add:

Within a few minutes it went from 58% to 42% in favor of Romney to 65% to 35% for Obama.  Not gonna pay too much attention til precincts report.

« Last Edit: November 06, 2012, 07:58:04 pm by wolfter »
Being honest is not wronging others, continuing the dishonesty is.

Offline Miss Philicia

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Re: electoral vote predictions 2012
« Reply #135 on: November 06, 2012, 07:54:12 pm »
My understanding is that this happened in PA (??)
At least that is what they had on CNN.

Yes, that particular one did, but there have been reports of irregularities in other states. So don't get all smug and stuff.
"I’ve slept with enough men to know that I’m not gay"

Offline Miss Philicia

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Re: electoral vote predictions 2012
« Reply #136 on: November 06, 2012, 07:54:56 pm »
Early results show the Repubs are sweeping  Ohio.  :(

Well duh girl, the rural counties count quickly. It's the same there every election and always has been.
"I’ve slept with enough men to know that I’m not gay"

Offline tednlou2

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Re: electoral vote predictions 2012
« Reply #137 on: November 06, 2012, 08:01:11 pm »
See, I think it was NBC News that said that video was shot in central florida.  I went to youtube and pulled the video, but didn't see MSNBC said PA, until just now. 

In any event, I don't trust voting machine companies claiming intellectual property rights and not allowing their software to be examined.  And, I think we need to move away from our elections being controlled and run by partisans. 

Offline Solo_LTSurvivor

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Re: electoral vote predictions 2012
« Reply #138 on: November 06, 2012, 08:07:34 pm »

Not gonna pay too much attention til precincts report.

I actually advise you to wait until the polls close in CA and then reach for that box of Franzia.

Or should that be AK and HI -- I'm time zone challenged.
don't equate intelligence with lack of masculinity
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____________________________

Seroconverted: Early 80s
Tested & confirmed what I already knew: early 90s

Current regimen: Biktarvy. 
Last regimen:  Atripla (with NO adverse side effects: no vivid dreams and NONE of the problems people who can't tolerate this drug may experience: color me lucky ::))
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Offline Miss Philicia

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Re: electoral vote predictions 2012
« Reply #139 on: November 06, 2012, 08:17:58 pm »
I actually advise you to wait until the polls close in CA and then reach for that box of Franzia.

She switched last week to Raspberry Fabellini.
"I’ve slept with enough men to know that I’m not gay"

Offline tednlou2

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Re: electoral vote predictions 2012
« Reply #140 on: November 06, 2012, 08:19:04 pm »
When the polls in Florida closed at 8pm EST, it was known that Obama won the early/absentee vote by about 50,000 votes.  Hopefully, this will be an indicator of how the state will go tonight. 

Offline Miss Philicia

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Re: electoral vote predictions 2012
« Reply #141 on: November 06, 2012, 08:26:09 pm »
Though sometimes unreliable and subject to change, exit polling in Ohio is lining up with the polling done during the campaign, and nationally it's showing the latino vote going from 9 to 10% since 2008.

It was expected that the 36 point margin Obama had with latinos four years ago was going to increase by potentially 5-8 more points.
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Offline tednlou2

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Re: electoral vote predictions 2012
« Reply #142 on: November 06, 2012, 08:38:07 pm »
NBC projects Chris Murphy the winner of the Senate seat in CT.  All that WWE money didn't work. 

Offline wolfter

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Re: electoral vote predictions 2012
« Reply #143 on: November 06, 2012, 08:48:01 pm »
She switched last week to Raspberry Fabellini.

I switched back. ;D


Now that is MY drug of choice!  They even served it at the hillbilly bar we visited last night in downtown Thornville.  Well, it was kinda downtown as it has the only traffic light for miles.

Plus, if I'm gonna drink a housewife wine, I'll stick with Ramona.  Love that bugged out look.
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Offline wolfter

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Re: electoral vote predictions 2012
« Reply #144 on: November 06, 2012, 08:51:44 pm »
Well duh girl, the rural counties count quickly. It's the same there every election and always has been.

Luckily, the 3C's are typically Democrat.  I'd guess any one of those counties has a greater population than most of the SE Ohio counties combined.
Being honest is not wronging others, continuing the dishonesty is.

Offline Miss Philicia

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Re: electoral vote predictions 2012
« Reply #145 on: November 06, 2012, 08:56:23 pm »

Now that is MY drug of choice!  They even served it at the hillbilly bar we visited last night in downtown Thornville.  Well, it was kinda downtown as it has the only traffic light for miles.

These things happen when Boone's Farm discontinues a stellar choice like "Country Kwencher"!
"I’ve slept with enough men to know that I’m not gay"

Offline wolfter

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Re: electoral vote predictions 2012
« Reply #146 on: November 06, 2012, 08:57:41 pm »
These things happen when Boone's Farm discontinues a stellar choice like "Country Kwencher"!

PULEEZE, we are a Tickle Pink community.  Even Google knows that. ;)
Being honest is not wronging others, continuing the dishonesty is.

Offline Miss Philicia

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Re: electoral vote predictions 2012
« Reply #147 on: November 06, 2012, 09:00:46 pm »
PULEEZE, we are a Tickle Pink community.  Even Google knows that. ;)

No Wild Irish Rose in Salt Lick, specifically the high-grade 18% alcohol one?
"I’ve slept with enough men to know that I’m not gay"

Offline tednlou2

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Re: electoral vote predictions 2012
« Reply #148 on: November 06, 2012, 09:02:04 pm »
Michigan stays blue. 

Offline Dachshund

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Re: electoral vote predictions 2012
« Reply #149 on: November 06, 2012, 09:03:03 pm »
It made my eyes bleed, but I checked in on Fox and they are trotting out the excuses. Sandy, not conservative enough, minorities...sorry mittens you've lost Fox.

 


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